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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A modest six-game MLB main slate will get us going this week! Quite a few quality arms are loaded up on this small-ish slate and, with offensive numbers being down across the league in general to begin this season (possibly due to a new dead ball?), landing on the correct hitters/stacks may provide a bit of a challenge. All six games feature an over/under of 8.5 runs or lower, which furthers that point. Nonetheless, we’ll see what we can cook up today! Best of luck!

Note: Originally, this slate was going to get underway at 7:40 ET but the MIL @ KC start time was moved up 30 minutes in an effort to avoid some bad weather arriving later in the evening. So make sure you have your entries set by 7:10 ET!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• MIL @ KC (7:10 ET): As noted in the intro, the start time for this game was moved up 30 minutes from its original scheduled first pitch time of 7:40 ET. Some fairly nasty storms are expected to arrive later in the evening, so the new start time should heighten the chances that they’ll be able to get a full nine innings in. We’ll still want to keep track of the forecast here leading up to first pitch. Those storms may still arrive around the 8th or 9th inning, which would bring an early finish into play. For now, we’ll keep guys from this game in play for DFS purposes. Temps around 70 degrees with strong crosswinds blowing right to left at 15 mph, possibly OUT to left at times.

• SD @ CHC (7:40 ET): Cool-ish temps around 60 degrees with 10 mph winds blowing IN from right/center. Moderate bump for pitchers at the wind-sensitive Wrigley Field.

• SEA @ MIN (7:40 ET): Strong winds IN from center at 15-20 mph. Pitchers deserve a bump here as well.

• NYM @ STL (7:45 ET): Winds IN from right near 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.2k | @ MIN

Castillo did not have the smoothest start to the 2024 season but he looks to be settled in now. Spanning his last four outings (26.0 IP), which includes a Coors Field start and games against the Rangers and Braves, Castillo has procured a 1.38 ERA, 3.00 xFIP, 0.77 WHIP, .174 opp AVG, and32.3% kRate. Those are some certified ace numbers.

I wouldn’t call Castillo’s match-up an easy one this evening. The Twins have racked up a 141 wRC+ and .369 wOBA vs. RHPs over the last two weeks, trailing only the Dodgers in both categories. Their 20.4% kRate in that span also isn’t exactly high. However, on the season as a whole, the Twins have been much more of a middling offense vs. RHPs: 103 wRC+, .312 wOBA, and 24.4% kRate (9th highest). Target Field has also ranked as the #6 most pitcher-friendly ballpark this season and, as noted in the weather section, there will be strong 15-20 mph winds blowing in from center field. So, all-in-all, despite the Twins riding some strong offensive momentum, Castillo’s impressive recent form may prove to be too tough of a challenge.

Cole Ragans (LHP), KC | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.5k | vs. MIL

Ragans has been a tad “feast or famine” this season but we know there is strikeout upside to be had any time he is on the mound and he has racked up between seven and nine Ks in four of his seven starts this season. Overall, Ragans heads into tonight’s game with a 3.44 ERA, 3.15 xFIP, 1.36 WHIP, and 28.9% kRate. Walks have been a bit of an issue at times (8.2% BB%), which is partially inflating his WHIP, and the Brewers happen to have the highest Walk Rate vs. LHPs this season at 13.2%.

While the Brew Crew has been earning some walks against lefty pitching, that’s about the only metric they’ve excelled in from an offensive standpoint. Elsewhere against LHPs, Milwaukee is hitting below the Mendoza Line with a .198 AVG (ranks 27th), .288 wOBA (25th), .630 OPS (26th), and they own a 25.5% kRate (8th highest). Against Ragans’ three most-used pitch types -- the four-seamer, changeup, and cutter -- the Brewers are hitting for an MLB-worst .151 AVG and .223 wOBA. Remember that this game will have to dodge some potential late-inning storms tonight, but Ragans’ day will likely be done by the time that risk comes into play. I expect he’ll be fairly chalky tonight but this sets up as a great spot for him.

Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN | DK: $7k, FD: $7.8k | vs. SEA

Among the value pitching options on this slate, it would seem as if LHP Andrew Heaney (DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.7k) will catch much of the ownership as he takes on the Oakland A’s. While I don’t hate the Heaney play, I also don’t mind pivoting elsewhere to a guy like Woods Richardson, who has similar, if not better, upside in comparison to Heaney. SWR now has three MLB starts under his belt in 2024 and he has come away with a respectable 2.45 ERA in that time. Unfortunately, the underlying metrics aren’t fantastic -- 4.18 xFIP, 20.6% kRate, and a slate-low 7.1% SwStr% -- and he has benefited from facing the Tigers and White Sox (twice).

The appeal for Woods Richardson will largely lie in the match-up and pitching environment. The Mariners continue to lead the MLB in strikeouts against RHPs and, over the last two weeks against righties, they’ve come away with a .200 AVG, .656 OPS, 94 wRC+, and a huge 29.8% kRate. What Seattle’s offense is proficient at is generating power against RHPs. Their .177 ISO vs. RHPs L2Weeks is good for 7th best in the MLB during that stretch. However, as mentioned in Luis Castillo’s spotlight, the conditions in tonight’s game aren't conducive for home runs. Target Field is a pitcher-friendly ballpark to begin with and, with those 15-20 mph winds blowing in from center in play tonight, it’s going to be difficult for any ball to leave the park unless it is absolutely hammered. Woods Richardson has yet to allow a home run this season so if that trend continues, then I could see him pitching five or six innings of solid baseball tonight with five to seven Ks along the way.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Yu Darvish (RHP), SD | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.5k | @ CHC

Kyle Gibson (RHP), STL | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.8k | vs. NYM

Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.7k | @ OAK

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Roddery Munoz (RHP), MIA

+ Dodgers: 5.1 implied runs (ranks 1st on the slate).

+ The Dodgers are mashing right now and have been crushing RHPs L2Weeks: .307 AVG, .914 OPS, .397 wOBA, .219 ISO, and 161 wRC+ (LAD ranks 1st in every category).

+ The Dodgers have just a 15.2% kRate vs. RHPs L2Weeks (2nd lowest in MLB).

+ Roddery Munoz has looked great in his first two career MLB starts (2.45 ERA, 2.68 xFIP, 0.73 WHIP, and 34.1% kRate) but he is allowing a slate-worst 16.7% Barrel% and he was downright awful across 15.2 IP in Triple-A this year where he struggled to an 8.62 ERA, 8.31 xFIP, 1.79 WHIP, 11.7% kRate, and 2.30 HR/9 Rate.

+ The Marlins have had a bottom-10 bullpen this season: 4.86 ERA, 4.30 xFIP, and 1.47 WHIP.

- The Dodgers are sure to be a chalky stack today, especially the top half of the lineup, and the core bats are extremely expensive, meaning you’ll be sacrificing in other areas of your lineup(s) if you want to roster guys like Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts.

Favorite LAD Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith

Bargain Bat: Andy Pages

Kansas City Royals vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), MIL

+ Royals: 4.6 implied runs (ranks 2nd on the slate).

+ Kauffman Stadium has ranked as the #4 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

+ The Royals have been much more productive at home where they’re averaging 5.18 runs/gm (vs. 4.00 runs/gm on the road).

+ Against RHPs at home, the Royals own a .264 AVG (4th), .768 OPS (3rd), .339 wOBA (4th), .173 ISO (5th), 112 wRC+ (8th), and 16.6% kRate (lowest in MLB).

+ Bryse Wilson has put up a respectable 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP this season, but most of his 2024 outings have been in more advantageous spots out of the bullpen. There is also nothing spectacular about his 4.08 xFIP and 7.9% SwStr%.

+ In 10.0 IP on the road, Wilson’s numbers have taken a steep nosedive: 4.50 ERA, 5.09 xFIP, and 15.0% kRate.

- This is setting up as another chalky stack with five hitters in the Royals lineup having at least a 13% pOwn%.

- There is a possibility that this game will get cut short by an inning or two if some late evening storms arrive earlier than expected (see weather section above).

Favorite KC Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Salvador Perez

Bargain Bat: Michael Massey

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Miami Marlins vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), LAD

+ Every hitter in the projected Marlins lineup has a < 10% pOwn%.

+ This will be Walker Buehler’s first MLB start since the 2022 season following Tommy John surgery, so he’s likely going to: A) have quite a bit of rust to shake off against an MLB lineup and, B) face some sort of pitch count limitations.

+ Buehler has pitched 21.2 IP across six minor league rehab starts this year and he came away with a lackluster 4.15 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, and 21:9 K:BB ratio.

+ While the Marlins did recently trade arguably their best hitter, Luis Arraez, to the Padres on Friday, they have been a fairly competent offense lately -- over their last six games, they own a respectable .321 wOBA and 107 wRC+ while striking out at just a 15.5% clip.

+ Outside of Jazz Chisholm Jr., the entire Marlins lineup is affordable.

-/+ The Dodgers have a middling bullpen: 3.41 ERA, 4.08 xFIP, and 1.09 WHIP.

- Marlins: 3.4 implied runs (tied for the lowest on the slate).

- The Marlins have, of course, not been a great offense on the season -- their 80 wRC+ checks in at 28th and they lack power (.112 ISO ranks 29th).

Favorite MIA Bats: Bryan De La Cruz, Jesus Sanchez, Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Bargain Bat: Vidal Brujan

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Roddery Munoz (RHP), MIA

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), MIL

OF Adolis Garcia, TEX | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Alex Wood (LHP), OAK

C Willson Contreras, STL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), NYM

OF Jazz Chisholm Jr., MIA | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), LAD

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD |DK: $5.1k, FD: $4k | vs. Justin Steele (LHP), CHC

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), STL

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN

2B Nico Hoerner, CHC | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Yu Darvish (RHP), SD

1B Rhys Hoskins, MIL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Cole Ragans (LHP), KC

OF Max Kepler, MIN | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Andy Pages, LAD | DK: $4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Roddery Munoz (RHP), MIA

C Cal Raleigh, SEA | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX

OF Jurickson Profar, SD | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Justin Steele (LHP), CHC

OF Bryan De La Cruz, MIA | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), LAD

1B/2B Abraham Toro, OAK | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX

3B Josh Rojas, SEA | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN

OF Jesus Sanchez, MIA | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), LAD

2B Michael Massey, KC | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), MIL

3B/OF Tyler Nevin, OAK | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX

3B/SS Vidal Brujan, MIA | DK: $3k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), LAD

OF Dylan Carlson, STL | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), NYM

OF Dairo Blanco, KC | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), MIL

3B Jose Fermin, STL | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), NYM

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No prop recommendations from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have you covered with some excellent suggestions in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!