Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 5/5 | A Wild 11-Game Friday Slate Awaits!

Author

Ryan Humphries
May 05, 2023

Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Happy Cinco de Mayo! Following a bunch of early Thursday games, we’ll get back to the regularly scheduled programming with an 11-game Friday main slate that waits on tap for this evening! The starting pitching is deep on this slate, but many of the best starters will be drawing some tough match-ups. Given all of those talented arms taking the mound today, locating the best hitters/stacks will be the main dilemma. But this should be a fun one so let’s get right into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

BOS @ PHI (7:05 ET): Some scattered storms are going to be around the Philly area this afternoon and into the evening. It’s looking like low coverage stuff but enough to still cause potential problems. We’ll need to double-check the radar here closer to first pitch.

COL @ NYM (7:10 ET): Pretty similar forecast as PHI but perhaps a bit less risk of rain overall.

MIN @ CLE (7:10 ET): 10 mph winds blowing IN from right.

BAL @ ATL (7:20 ET): Rain is moving through ATL this afternoon and into the evening but it looks light and playable. Though, if they wanted, they may choose to start a little late in order to (hopefully) play the entire game dry.

DET @ STL (8:15 ET): Crosswinds blowing right to left around 15 mph.

TEX @ LAA (9:38 ET): Winds blowing OUT to center around 10 mph.

WAS @ ARI (9:40 ET): The Chase Field roof is scheduled to be open tonight.

MIL @ SF (10:15 ET): Some moderate delay risk here due to some rain in the middle innings.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA | DK: $10k, FD: $10.5k | vs. HOU

We’ve got quite a few aces to choose from today but we’ll begin with Castillo taking on the Astros in Seattle. Castillo has had a couple of rocky starts this season but, overall, he’s pitched to an excellent 1.82 ERA, 3.34 xFIP, 0.92 WHIP, and 28.1% kRate. His 14.4% Swinging Strike Rate also trails only Clayton Kershaw (14.9% SwStr%) among today’s starting pitchers. T-Mobile Park is a pitcher’s paradise and checks in as the #5 most pitcher-friendly ballpark. Castillo has been lights out in nine career starts in Seattle, posting a minuscule 1.30 ERA, 2.47 xFIP, 0.72 WHIP, .188 opp wOBA, and 34.3% kRate.

The match-up with Houston may scare some folks off of Castillo, but we can’t view the Astros as an elite offense at the moment. In fact, they’ve been a bottom-10 offense versus RHPs this season based on their .293 wOBA (ranks 23rd) and 85 wRC+ (21st). They’ve been even worse over the last couple of weeks, dropping down to a .269 wOBA and 68 wRC+ alongside a middling 22.5% kRate. Strikeouts won’t be the easiest to come by against this team but we can expect an all-around strong outing from Castillo this evening.

Jordan Montgomery (LHP), STL | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.5k | vs. DET

If we dip into the mid-range, Jordan Montgomery is an SP candidate we may want to consider this evening. Despite Busch Stadium being the #4 most pitcher-friendly park, Montgomery has struggled in three home starts this season: 7.04 ERA, 4.32 xFIP, 1.63 WHIP, .372 opp wOBA, 14.1% kRate. He’s been excellent in his remaining starts on the road (0.46 ERA, 3.43 xFIP, 0.92 WHIP, .209 opp wOBA, 27.8% kRate) so we’ll be hoping that he snaps out of his “home funk” tonight.

The Tigers are not complete pushovers when it comes to hitting against lefties -- their .310 wOBA and 98 wRC+ put them closer to the middle of the pack rather than the very bottom. However, their 27.8% kRate against LHPs makes them the fourth-most strikeout-prone offense and their offensive numbers have dipped to a .278 wOBA and 73 wRC+ when facing southpaws on the road. We should expect to see the “good version” of Jordan Montgomery tonight and the Cardinals (-220 ML) are also the second-heaviest favorite on the slate.

 

Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI | DK: $6.8k, FD: $9k | vs. WAS

I always try to choose a cheaper arm to spotlight and while Kelly’s $9,000 FanDuel salary isn’t all too affordable, he does look like a strong SP2 value option on DraftKings at just $6,800. Kelly has not been mowing down teams this season but he’s been rock-solid over his last four starts, coming away with a 3.52 ERA, 4.41 xFIP, 1.09 WHIP, .280 opp wOBA, and 24.4% kRate. Perhaps his most impressive feat was throwing six innings of one-run baseball in Coors Field last Friday. He is getting a bit lucky based on his 3.06 ERA that is backed up by an unflattering 4.75 xFIP and walks (13.6% BB%) have been an issue at times, but we’ll see if he can stay steady against a very manageable Nationals opponent tonight.

As touched on several times this season, the main issue with the Washington match-up is their ability to avoid strikeouts -- their 19.4% kRate vs. RHPs is the third-lowest in baseball. Besides that, they rank 28th with a .283 wOBA and dead last with a .094 ISO and 73 wRC+. There’s just not a lot of pop in those Nats bats. Their offense has improved when playing on the road (4.77 runs/gm away, 2.94 runs/gm at home) but we can place a fair amount of trust in Merrill Kelly to keep Washington in check for the better part of six innings or so. The D-Backs are also heavy -188 ML favorites so the win and quality start bonuses should be very obtainable for Kelly this evening.

 

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Clayton Kershaw (LHP), LAD | DK: $10.8k, FD: $11.2k | @ SD

Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM | DK: $10.2k, FD: $9.8k | vs. COL

Max Fried (LHP), ATL | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.9k | vs. BAL

Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.5k | @ CLE

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Atlanta Braves vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

+ Braves: 4.8 implied runs (ranks 5th on the slate).

+ Kremer has been a subpar starter this season, posting a 6.67 ERA, 4.84 xFIP, 1.58 WHIP, 18.4% HR/FB Rate, and .392 opp wOBA.

+ Kremer has been downright awful against LHBs: 8.31 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, .460 wOBA, .241 ISO, 2.77 HR/9.

+ ATL comes in hot with a .401 wOBA, .276 ISO, and 150 wRC+ over the last week.

+ ATL has been much better against lefties, but they’re still a top offense vs. RHPs: .334 wOBA (ranks 8th), .191 ISO (6th), and 105 wRC+ (11th).

-/+ The Orioles' bullpen has been lights out this season, however, many of their top relievers may be unavailable after five BP arms combined for 123 pitches in yesterday’s game against the Royals.

- ATL has had some struggles against RHPs at home this season, evidenced by a 95 wRC+ and a high 27.2% kRate.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Sean Murphy | Bargain Bat: Eddie Rosario

Kansas City Royals vs. Kyle Muller (LHP), OAK

+ Royals: 5.4 implied runs (ranks 1st on the slate).

+ Muller has been terrible this season: 6.28 ERA, 5.20 xFIP, .392 opp wOBA, and a slate-worst 1.92 WHIP.

+ Muller has allowed a 49.0% HardHit% this season and 11 barreled balls in the last 30 days (bottom 5th percentile).

+ The Royals have been a much-improved offense as of late, particularly against LHPs in the last two weeks: .297 AVG, .377 wOBA, 140 wRC+, and a low 15.2% kRate.

+ The OAK bullpen has been the worst in the MLB: 6.78 ERA, 6.11 xFIP, 1.75 WHIP, 16.9% kRate.

+ Kauffman Stadium is the #6 most hitter-friendly ballpark.

+ There are plenty of affordable bats in this Royals lineup.

- A KC stack looks to be very chalky today, and this team has often fallen flat even against terrible pitchers.

- KC has averaged just 3.44 runs/gm at home and, overall, they’ve been a bottom-five offense for the season.

Favorite KC Bats: Salvador Perez, Vinnie Pasquantino, Edward Olivares | Bargain Bat: Maikel Garcia

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Texas Rangers vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

+ Anderson in 27.1 IP this season: 5.74 ERA, 5.94 xFIP, 1.58 WHIP, .387 opp wOBA.

+ Rangers are in a strong spot against Anderson, but only two hitters have higher than an 8% pOwn% (DraftKings) so ownership should be low on a slate this size.

+ TEX vs. LHPs in the last two weeks: .381 wOBA, .237 ISO, 144 wRC+.

+ 10 mph winds blowing OUT to center tonight.

-/+ Rangers: 4.4 implied runs (ranks T-9th on the slate).

- Angels have a top-10 bullpen this season that has given up an MLB-low five home runs.

Favorite TEX Bats: Josh Jung, Jonah Heim, Marcus Semien | Bargain Bat: Ezequiel Duran

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

OF Mike Trout, LAA | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

OF Byron Buxton, MIN | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Peyton Battenfield (RHP), CLE

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD | DK: $5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Yu Darvish (RHP), SD

OF Masataka Yoshida, BOS | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI

1B Christian Walker, ARI | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

OF Brandon Nimmo, NYM | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

C Willson Contreras, STL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Matthew Boyd (LHP), DET

C Salvador Perez, KC | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Kyle Muller (LHP), OAK

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

C Jonah Heim, TEX | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

1B Vinnie Pasquantino, KC | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Kyle Muller (LHP), OAK

3B Josh Jung, TEX | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

2B/SS Tommy Edman, STL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Matthew Boyd (LHP), DET

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Brad Keller (RHP), KC

OF Esteury Ruiz, OAK | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Brad Keller (RHP), KC

OF Edward Olivares, KC | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Kyle Muller (LHP), OAK

SS Ezequiel Duran, TEX | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

OF Eddie Rosario, ATL | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

3B/OF Maikel Garcia, KC | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Kyle Muller (LHP), OAK

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Ronald Acuna Jr. MORE than 9.0 Hitter Fantasy Score

Josh Naylor MORE than 0.5 Hitter Strikeouts

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!

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