Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

I hope anyone dabbling in the early MLB slates today has a profitable afternoon! We’ll have a smaller main slate on tap for this evening, but there is still plenty enough baseball action for us to sink our teeth into. Pitching is unremarkable but decent, and there is quite a bit of offense expected with six teams holding at least a 4.8 implied run total. Let’s dive in! Best of luck!

Note: The FanDuel main slate will kick off at 6:40 ET with the inclusion of the SD @ MIA game onto the main slate. For the purposes of this newsletter, the primary focus will land on the six mutually shared games between DraftKings and FanDuel!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

PHI @ NYM (7:10 ET): Light winds blowing OUT to left.

COL @ ARI (9:40 ET): The Chase Field roof is scheduled to be open this evening.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU | DK: $10k, FD: $10.5k | vs. MIN

Starting pitching isn’t overly strong today, but Hunter Brown leads the way as the top projected arm on this evening’s main slate. The 24-year-old righty has been sharp this season with a 3.12 ERA, a slate-best 3.08 xFIP, 1.20 WHIP, 28.1% kRate, and he’s forcing a 54.4% Ground Ball Rate. Brown has allowed a 92.8 mph average exit velocity over the last month, putting him in the bottom 5th percentile, and he’s also giving up quite a few barreled balls. Fortunately, those hard-hit baseballs are rarely exiting the ballpark, and Brown has surrendered just four home runs in 57.2 IP this season (0.62 HR/9 Rate).

The Twins have hovered around the middle of the pack offensively versus RHPs, checking in with a 104 wRC+ on the season paired with a .320 wOBA. What bodes well for Hunter Brown in this match-up is Minnesota’s propensity to strike out. They lead the MLB with a 26.3% kRate vs. RHPs on the season and, over the last two weeks (368 PA), that kRate when facing righties has jumped up to 32.6%! So, expect a strong strikeout total from Brown this evening and he’ll be in a strong position to earn a win/quality start bonus as well with Houston (-180 ML) stepping in as the heaviest favorites on the slate.

Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY | DK: $7.7k, FD: $7.7k | @ SEA

The quality of starting pitcher options drops off significantly once you get past the first couple of guys up top so most of these main slate arms will be inherently risky. With Schmidt, we’re at least getting some solid strikeout potential thanks to his above-average 25.3% kRate. His 5.58 ERA on the season also doesn’t tell the whole story. Schmidt’s 3.95 xFIP is over a run-and-a-half lower than his ERA so it appears that he’s been the victim of some notably bad luck. Schmidt has also been limiting the hard contact recently, which was an issue for him to begin the season.

If we do a deep dive on Schmidt’s pitch types, there are some further positives to take away given his match-up with the Mariners tonight. Schmidt has thrown a fairly even mix of sweepers, sinkers, cutters, and curveballs this season -- those four pitches have made up 97.5% of his arsenal. Against that specific pitch mix (vs. RHPs), the Mariners check in dead last in the MLB with a .272 wOBA and .100 ISO. They’ve also ranked 23rd overall vs. RHPs in wOBA when playing at home at the pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. All things considered, Schmidt stands out as one of the more appealing value pitchers on this slate.

Other Pitchers to Consider:

George Kirby (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.4k, FD: $9.2k | vs. NYY

Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.9k | @ NYM

Tommy Henry (LHP), ARI | DK: $5.7k, FD: $7.8k | vs. COL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Julio Teheran (RHP), MIL

+ Blue Jays: 5.2 implied runs (ranks 3rd on the slate).

+ Teheran, making just his second MLB start in 2023, did not fare well in 40.0 IP in Triple-A this season: 5.63 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, and 1.60 HR/9 Rate.

+ In 41.1 IP (MLB) since 2020, Teheran has come away with an 8.06 ERA, 6.06 xFIP, 1.62 WHIP, .392 opp wOBA, 2.80 HR/9, and a 14.8% kRate.

+ It’s a small 31 PA sample size, but the current TOR roster has a .433 AVG, .602 wOBA, and 9.7% kRate vs. Teheran.

+ Based on their 4.43 xFIP, the MIL has a bottom-10 bullpen this season.

+ The Blue Jays have a 121 wRC+ over the last two weeks (ranks 4th).

- TOR is averaging 4.39 runs/gm at home versus 5.09 runs/gm on the road.

Favorite TOR Bats: Bo Bichette, George Springer, Daulton Varsho | Bargain Bat: Kevin Kiermaier

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Dinelson Lamet (RHP), COL

+ D-Backs: 5.4 implied runs (ranks 2nd on the slate).

+ Lamet has only pitched sparingly out of the bullpen this season but in 10.2 IP he has come away with an ugly 12.66 ERA, 5.87 xFIP, 2.44 WHIP, and 21.1% Walk Rate.

+ The D-Backs have been a top-five offense vs. RHPs over the last month, ranking 5th in OPS, 4th in wOBA, 5th in ISO, and 5th in wRC+.

+ Lamet has been working as a starter in Triple-A where he put up a 0.84 ERA, 0.66 WHIP, and 11:1 K:BB in 10.2 innings (three starts), but he only reached 63 pitches in his most recent outing so expect plenty of Rockies bullpen action.

+ Over the last two weeks, the Rockies bullpen owns an MLB-worst 5.43 xFIP and an MLB-low 15.4% kRate.

Favorite ARI Bats: Corbin Carroll, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Ketel Marte | Bargain Bat: Jake McCarthy

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Cincinnati Reds vs. James Paxton (LHP), BOS

+ Reds: 4.8 implied runs (ranks T-4th on the slate).

+ Since the end of the 2019 season, Paxton has only nine MLB starts (35.2 IP) under his belt -- in that time, he has put up a lackluster 6.06 ERA, 4.17 xFIP, 1.40 WHIP, 47.3% HardContact%, and 2.0 HR/9 Rate.

+ The Reds have been excellent versus LHPs in the last two weeks: 164 PA, .368 AVG (ranks 1st), 1.013 OPS (4th), .432 wOBA (3rd), .215 ISO (9th), and 167 wRC+ (4th).

+ Fenway Park has ranked as the #2 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

+ Based on their 4.52 xFIP, BOS has had a bottom-10 bullpen this season.

+ Plenty of cheap bats in this Reds lineup.

- Paxton had a rocky start in his most recent outing (3.0 IP, 4 H, 2 HR, 3 BB, 5 ER, 5 K) but he allowed just three runs across his first two 2023 starts and leads the slate with a 31.7% kRate.

- Some Reds hitters may check in with surprisingly high ownership (four hitters with a 20+% pOwn%) so time will tell if this is actually a “low owned” leverage stack.

Favorite CIN Bats: Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, Tyler Stephenson | Bargain Bat: Kevin Newman

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.6k | vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $6k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Louie Varland (RHP), MIN

OF Bryce Harper, PHI | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), NYM

1B Pete Alonso, NYM | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4k | vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI

OF Masataka Yoshida, BOS | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), CIN

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Dinelson Lamet (RHP), COL

SS Bo Bichette, TOR | DK: $5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Julio Teheran (RHP), MIL

3B Ryan McMahon, COL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Tommy Henry (LHP), ARI

OF Christian Yelich, MIL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Alek Manoah (RHP), TOR

C Tyler Stephenson, CIN | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), BOS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Spencer Steer, CIN | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), BOS

SS Matt McLain, CIN | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.4k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), BOS

1B/3B Justin Turner, BOS | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), CIN

2B/3B Owen Miller, MIL | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Alek Manoah (RHP), TOR

OF Jake McCarthy, ARI | DK: $3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Dinelson Lamet (RHP), COL

SS Ezequiel Tovar, COL | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Tommy Henry (LHP), ARI

OF Rob Refsnyder, BOS | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), CIN

2B/SS Kevin Newman, CIN | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.5k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), BOS

OF Kevin Kiermaier, TOR | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Julio Teheran (RHP), MIL

OF Isiah Kiner-Falefa, NYY | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Martin Maldonado MORE than 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Matt McLain MORE than 7.0 Hitter Fantasy Score

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!