Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

The midweek baseball action is popping off throughout the day on this fine Wednesday and eight games will land on the board for this evening’s main slate. Pitching feels a tiny bit dicey but it’s always fun when Ohtani is on the mound and there are a handful of other arms that will command some recognition tonight. As far as hitting/stacks go, Coors Field (MIL @ COL) will be a popular target, as usual, but, perhaps the trickiest part of the evening, will be locating some other offenses that will capitalize on their respective match-ups. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

CHC @ WAS (7:05 ET): Light rain possible but not a major concern. Temps in the 40s with crosswinds blowing left to right around 10 mph.

CLE @ NYY (7:05 ET): Some problematic slow-moving rain could threaten to trudge over the ballpark this evening. It’s tough to tell for certain at the moment but double-check the forecast in NY closer to first pitch. The delay/PPD chances are greater than 0% here.

TOR @ BOS (7:10 ET): Rain may hang around over the ballpark around first pitch until around 8 pm ET. Things clear up after that so, in the worst-case scenario, there could be a late start in Boston.

MIL @ COL (8:40 ET): Winds blowing OUT to center at Coors Field tonight. They won’t be consistent, but at their strongest, those winds could be blowing upwards of 15+ mph. Bump for bats in the most hitter-friendly ballpark.

SEA @ OAK (9:40 ET): A little troublesome here in Oakland with a high amount of rain coverage moving through the area at the time of this game. It is more likely that they’ll be able to play through any of the lighter stuff and the skies will (hopefully) clear up as the game goes on. However, a lengthy delay or outright postponement is on the table as well. Just be cautious with this game since it is the last game of the night and is scheduled to start up a full hour after the second-to-last game (MIL @ COL) locks.

Note: For the time being, I won’t be ruling out any players from consideration due to weather but be sure to keep an eye on updates for CLE @ NYY and SEA @ OAK, in particular.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Dylan Cease (RHP), CWS | DK: $10.3k, FD: $8.9k | vs. MIN

As you’re all aware, you can rarely go wrong with spending all the way up for Shohei Ohtani (DK: $11.4k, FD: $11.1k), even in a “so-so” match-up against the Cardinals today.

Even though his fantasy results have been on a consistent downward trajectory since the beginning of this season, Cease has some appeal as a high-end leverage play. His fastball velocity is down a tick this season and his 4.15 ERA is backed up by a 4.25 xFIP, so he’s not simply getting unlucky. He’s also allowing an uncharacteristically high 50.6% HardHit% compared to his 31.2% HH% in 2022. The swings and misses are also down from a 15.0% SwStr% last year to a rather average 11.9% SwStr% this season. It’s no guarantee that he’ll snap back into form today, particularly against a Twins team that has a .364 wOBA and 136 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last two weeks.

However, there is some reason to believe that Cease, who finished 2nd in AL Cy Young voting last season, could have a strong outing tonight. He has thrown either his four-seamer or slider on 77.9% of pitches this season. The Twins have been pretty awful against those two pitch types from RHPs this season, posting a .213 AVG (ranks 28th), .286 wOBA (27th), and a 29.6% kRate (2nd highest). Overall, the Twins’ 24.9% kRate vs. RHPs is the 8th highest in the MLB and, in 152 PA vs. Cease, the current Minnesota roster is hitting just .187 against him with a .276 wOBA and 27.6% kRate. So, all things considered, it’s a fairly good spot for him to look like an ace again tonight and he pitched well against the Twins back on April 10th, allowing only three hits and one earned run across 5.0 IP while striking out six and scoring 21.1 DKFP/36 FDFP. We can’t hate on Cease too much for getting tagged up by a solid Orioles offense and beat up in back-to-back starts against the Rays, who are pummeling just about everyone they face this season.

Marcus Stroman (RHP), CHC | DK: $9.1k, FD: $10.5k | @ WAS

Stroman jumped out to an extremely strong start to the season, posting a 0.75 ERA, 3.32 xFIP, 0.92 WHIP, .146 opp AVG, and 26.9% kRate over his first four outings. In the two starts since, he was knocked around by the Dodgers for six hits (three HRs) and five runs and he didn’t show his best stuff against a bad Marlins offense in his most recent start last Friday. We’ll chalk that up to a couple of outlier performances and see if Stroman can regain the same form he had at the start of the season. His 1.05 WHIP is still the best mark on the slate and his 2.29 ERA is backed up by a fairly solid 3.43 xFIP. Stroman is also inducing a ton of ground balls with a 59.8% GB%.

That plays well into his match-up with Washington today. The Nationals have an MLB-high 49.4% GB% vs. RHPs this season to go along with an MLB-low .090 ISO and 11 HRs hit against righties. Unfortunately, in Stroman’s case, Washington doesn’t strike out much with a 19.4% kRate this season (2nd lowest vs. RHPs). But some cold temps in Washington will make for some solid pitching conditions. Stroman’s counterpart, RHP Jake Irvin, is making his MLB debut as well. That bodes well for Stroman’s chances to earn a win bonus tonight and the Cubs (-195 ML) are the heaviest favorites on the slate. So, while he may not rack up more than a handful of strikeouts, I can envision Stroman pitching deep into this game (6.0+ IP) and earning both a win and a quality start.

Louie Varland (RHP), MIN | DK: $6k, FD: $8.5k | vs. CWS

Varland isn’t incredibly cheap on FanDuel but his $6,000 DraftKings salary is going to make him an appealing SP2 on this slate. He’s an inexperienced pitcher at the MLB level (32.0 IP) and he did give up three blasts in his 2023 debut to the Yankees on April 14th, but he’s also a guy who has plenty of strikeout upside. He notched eight Ks against NYY in that first start of the season and he’s rocking a massive 40.3% kRate across 15.0 IP in Triple-A this year to go along with a 1.91 xFIP.

The match-up looks extremely solid for Varland today. The White Sox have been a bottom-10 offense this season and they’ve been particularly awful against RHPs over the last two weeks: .197 AVG, .261 wOBA, 63 wRC+, and a 22.3% kRate -- the batting average, wOBA, and wRC+ ranks dead last in the MLB in that time frame. I like Varland’s chances of covering five or six frames tonight. While he may give up a few hits/runs, he could also rack up a high amount of strikeouts again.

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAA | DK: $11.4k, FD: $11.1k | @ STL

Shane Bieber (RHP), CLE | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.6k | @ NYY

Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.8k | @ OAK (Keep an eye on the weather)

Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS | DK: $4k, FD: N/A | vs. CHC (DraftKings GPP SP2 Only)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Eric Lauer (LHP), MIL

Non-Coors Stacks

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

+ Blue Jays: 5.1 implied runs (ranks 1st on slate among non-Coors teams).

+ Pivetta has not been overly sharp this season: 5.11 ERA, 4.64 xFIP, 1.38 WHIP, .348 opp wOBA.

+ Pivetta is getting hit extremely hard with a slate-worst 54.4% HardHit% to go along with a high 92.9 mph average exit velocity.

+ In 164 PA vs. Pivetta, the current TOR roster has a .319 AVG, .419 wOBA, and a low 17.7% kRate.

+ Pivetta is averaging -40.8% less FPPG at home.

+ Fenway Park: #3 most hitter-friendly park.

+ Since the start of 2022, the Blue Jays have a .308 AVG, .824 OPS, .360 wOBA, and 138 wRC+ when playing at Fenway Park.

-/+ TOR has been very average vs. RHPs in the last two weeks: .313 wOBA & 100 wRC+.

- BOS has had an above-average bullpen this season and has allowed just 10 home runs (T-8th fewest).

- The core TOR bats are very expensive.

Favorite TOR Bats: Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero Jr., George Springer | Bargain Bat: Alejandro Kirk 

Chicago Cubs vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

+ Cubs: 4.5 implied runs (ranks 3rd on slate among non-Coors teams).

+ Jake Irvin is making his MLB debut, and has not been effective in five Triple-A starts (22.1 IP) this year: 5.64 ERA, 5.30 xFIP, 1.52 WHIP, 20.4% kRate, 11.2% Walk Rate.

+ Cubs are a top 10 offense vs. RHPs.

+ On the road, the Cubs are averaging 5.62 runs/gm with a .367 wOBA and 129 wRC+.

+ Cubs offer strong stolen base upside with 26 SBs this season (T-7th most).

+ This should be a fairly low-owned stack -- no Cubs hitter has higher than a 13% pOwn% (DraftKings).

-/+ WAS bullpen has been above average this season but is due for some regression based on their 4.19 ERA backed up by a 4.64 xFIP (5th worst).

- Less than ideal hitting conditions in Washington tonight -- cold temps and dense air will make hitting home runs more difficult.

Favorite CHC Bats: Cody Bellinger, Patrick Wisdom, Ian Happ | Bargain Bat: Trey Mancini

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Boston Red Sox vs. Alek Manoah (RHP), TOR

+ Manoah has been benefiting from a good deal of luck this season -- his 4.88 ERA and .352 opp wOBA are backed up by a slate-worst 5.69 xFIP and .393 xwOBA.

+ Boston has been arguably the best offense vs. RHPs in the last two weeks: .307 AVG (1st), .911 OPS (1st), .389 wOBA (1st), .239 ISO (2nd), and 146 wRC+ (1st).

+ Fenway Park: #3 most hitter-friendly park.

+ At home, the Red Sox are averaging 5.83 runs/gm with a .363 wOBA and 122 wRC+.

+ No BOS hitter has higher than a 5% pOwn% (DraftKings).

+ There are plenty of surprisingly cheap and viable options in this BOS lineup.

-/+ TOR has possessed a top-five bullpen this season, but they are prone to giving up the long ball with a 1.49 HR/9 Rate (5th highest).

- Manoah averages +35.3% more FPPG on the road and owns a 1.50 ERA, 3.45 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP, and .260 opp wOBA in his two career starts (12.0 IP) at Fenway Park.

Favorite BOS Bats: Alex Verdugo, Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran | Bargain Bat: Emmanuel Valdez

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Mike Trout, LAA | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

SS Bo Bichette, TOR | DK: $6k, FD: $4k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

OF Cedric Mullins, BAL | DK: $6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.6k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

1B CJ Cron, COL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Eric Lauer (LHP), MIL

C William Contreras, MIL | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Alex Verdugo, BOS | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Alek Manoah (RHP), TOR

C Salvador Perez, KC | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), BAL

OF Cody Bellinger, CHC | DK: $4.3k, FD: $4k | vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Teoscar Hernandez, SEA | DK: $4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

OF Randal Grichuk, COL | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Eric Lauer (LHP), MIL

1B Vinnie Pasquantino, KC | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), BAL

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

OF Jarren Duran, BOS | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Alek Manoah (RHP), TOR

1B Josh Bell, CLE | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

OF Joey Wiemer, MIL | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

C Alejandro Kirk, TOR | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

OF Eloy Jimenez, CWS | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Louie Varland (RHP), MIN

1B Trey Mancini, CHC | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

2B Emmanuel Valdez, BOS | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2k | vs. Alek Manoah (RHP), TOR

C Connor Wong, BOS | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Alek Manoah (RHP), TOR

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Cody Bellinger MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Jose Ramirez MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!