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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Time to settle in for a loaded MLB Friday! Nine games hit the board for this evening’s main slate and it’s sure to be a juicy one. Great pitching, great hitting/stack options, and not too much in the way of weather concerns. Let’s waste no time and jump right into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• DET @ NYY (7:05 ET): Winds around 10 mph blowing IN from right.

• LAA @ CLE (7:10 ET): Light-to-moderate scattered showers are expected in the area. It may take a little luck, but this game has favorable odds of getting nine innings in. The possibility of an in-game delay will make starting pitchers a bit riskier, however. Double-check the forecast closer to lock to see how things are shaping up.

• TEX @ KC (7:40 ET): Light 5-10 mph winds IN from right. 

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Sonny Gray (RHP), STL | DK: $10.1k, FD: $11.5k | vs. CWS

It seems pretty likely that Sonny Gray will run away in ownership among pitchers today but, if you’re okay with eating some chalk while having to jam in multiple cheap bats to afford him, he sets up nicely tonight. Through four starts, Gray has dazzled with a 1.16 ERA, 2.14 xFIP, 36.0% kRate, and 13.7% SwStr%. After beginning the season on the IL, Gray has tossed at least 92 pitches in back-to-back starts so workload restrictions are no longer of major concern.

It’s been easy to pick on the 2024 White Sox for much of the season but their bats are waking up as of late. Over the last week, the White Sox have accounted for a strong 119 wRC+ next to a low 18.6% kRate -- a stark difference from their season-long numbers of 74 wRC+ and 23.8% kRate. But despite Chicago finding their groove at the plate recently, Sonny Gray is a tough customer to go up against and that is reflected in the Cardinals’ massive -300 ML odds -- easily making St. Louis the heaviest favorites on this slate.

Ronel Blanco (RHP), HOU | DK: $8.2k, FD: $10.8k | vs. SEA

Blanco began his 2024 campaign in rare form, tossing a no-hitter against the Blue Jays. He’s been rock-solid ever since and heads into his sixth start boasting a 1.65 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 23.4% kRate, and a slate-best 25.3% HardHit%, which ranks 2nd among all MLB starters (min. 20 IP). Blanco’s 2.4% Barrel% also ranks 1st among all starters. The catch with Blanco is that his gaudy surface stats are backed up by a fairly concerning 4.25 xFIP, meaning he has been getting quite fortunate up to this point.

However, we’ll like Blanco from a strikeout upside standpoint as he takes on the Mariners who own an MLB-high 29.6% kRate vs. RHPs this season. Seattle has racked up an even higher 33.8% kRate over the last week while struggling to a 76 wRC+ in that span. As long as the regression bug doesn’t choose to bite Blanco today, he sets up well for another strong outing.

JP Sears (LHP), MIA | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.9k | vs. MIA

As the DFS prices would suggest, this is a bit of a gamble but any competent lefty pitcher is worth a look against this Marlins offense. Thanks to a couple of rough outings to begin the season, outside of his 1.12 WHIP, Sears’ numbers do not look all too great -- 4.64 ERA, 5.06 xFIP, and 17.7% kRate. However, he’s been much better in recent starts, and over his last four outings on the mound, Sears has procured some much more respectable results: 3.04 ERA, 4.23 xFIP, 0.93 WHIP, and 23.9% kRate. Sears has also held opponents to a .171 AVG over that recent four-start stretch.

The Marlins are not an overly strikeout-prone offense (19.8% kRate vs. LHPs) but they also haven’t done much damage to lefties. Miami has the second-most plate appearances against LHPs this season and they’ve come away with a meager .213 AVG, .570 OPS, .258 wOBA, .092 ISO, and 63 wRC+. Ugly stuff. They’re also averaging just 3.15 runs/gm on the road this season and, while Sears has some oddly poor home splits, Oakland Coliseum is generally a favorable pitcher’s ballpark. Sears’ best games have come against the Rangers and Yankees this season so if he can contain those two talented offenses, then I like his odds against the weak-hitting Marlins tonight.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.4k | vs. LAA (Monitor weather)

Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS | DK: $8.1k, FD: $11.3k | @ MIN

George Kirby (RHP), SEA | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.6k | @ HOU

Slade Cecconi (RHP), ARI | DK: $6.6k, FD: $10.1k | vs. SD (DK SP2 Preferred)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Cleveland Guardians vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

Reminder: Keep an eye on the forecast since there is some nearby rain expected around Cleveland.

+ The Guardians have been a top-10 offense vs. RHPs at home: .728 OPS (10th), .324 wOBA (10th), .174 ISO (9th), and 115 wRC+ (8th).

+ Soriano struggles with walks (14.0% BB%) and has allowed a slate-worst 13.6% Barrel%.

+ Soriano’s 31.4% LineDrive% L30Days will lead to some problems against a Guardians offense that specializes in making contact and driving the ball into the gaps.

+ The Angels have had a bottom-five bullpen this season: 5.42 ERA, 4.43 xFIP, 1.40 WHIP, and 65.2% Left On Base%.

+ Historically, Progressive Field has been more of a pitcher-friendly ballpark, but it has ranked as the #2 most hitter-friendly ballpark thus far in 2024, as well as the #1 home run ballpark.

+ This could be a sneaky stack as every Guardians hitter has a < 10% pOwn%.

- Guardians: 4.0 implied runs (ranks as the 6th lowest on the slate).

- Soriano has allowed an average batted-ball distance of 139.6 feet L30Days (top 85th percentile).

- Soriano’s best outings have come on the road this season.

Favorite CLE Bats: Andres Gimenez, Josh Naylor, Steven Kwan

Bargain Bat: Will Brennan

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Brad Keller (RHP) + White Sox Bullpen

+ Cardinals: 4.5 implied runs (ranks 7th on the slate).

+ Keller, who was recently called up from Triple-A, likely won’t handle a heavy workload, leaving a bad White Sox bullpen tasked with handling most of the innings today -- Keller threw 31 pitches across 1.2 IP in relief three days ago and he hasn’t been great across his 16.0 IP in Triple-A this year (4.50 ERA & 1.38 WHIP).

+ White Sox bullpen this season: 4.76 ERA, 4.92 xFIP (worst in MLB), 1.58 WHIP, and 19.9% kRate.

- Several Cardinals hitters could be a bit chalky with five batters currently owning double-digit pOwn%.

- While this is a nice spot for hitters, the big offensive games for the Cardinals have been few and far between -- St. Louis’ 86 wRC+ ranks them 27th in the MLB this season.

Favorite STL Bats: Willson Contreras, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado

Bargain Bat: Masyn Winn

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Oakland Athletics (RHBs Preferred) vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), MIA

+ 7-of-9 hitters in the projected A’s lineup have a < 10% pOwn%.

+ The A’s have been a competent offense recently which has led to wins in six of their last seven games.

+ The A’s have been a top-10 offense over the last week: .741 OPS (10th), .326 wOBA (10th), .199 ISO (4th), 36.6% HardContact% (3rd), and 115 wRC+ (9th).

+ Weathers is having a rough season (4.55 ERA, 5.10 xFIP, 1.48 WHIP) and he’s been particularly bad against RHBs: .291 AVG, .395 wOBA, .209 ISO, and 1.77 WHIP.

+ The Marlins own a subpar bullpen: 4.46 ERA, 4.19 xFIP, and 1.46 WHIP.

+ The entire A’s lineup is affordable.

-/+ A’s: 4.4 implied runs (ranks 8th on the slate).

- The A’s have averaged an MLB-worst 3.00 runs/gm at home.

Favorite OAK Bats: Tyler Nevin, Brent Rooker, Esteury Ruiz

Bargain Bat: Abraham Toro

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

OF Juan Soto, NYY | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Reese Olson (RHP), DET

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4k | vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), TEX

OF Kyle Tucker, HOU | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.2k | vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

OF Tyler O’Neill, BOS | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), MIN

OF Adolis Garcia, TEX | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

2B Ozzie Albies, ATL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Gavin Stone (RHP), LAD

C Willson Contreras, STL | DK: $5.3k, FD:  $3.3k| vs. Brad Keller (RHP)/CWS Bullpen

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Ronel Blanco (RHP), HOU

OF Riley Greene, DET | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP), NYY

2B Andres Gimenez, CLE | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

1B Christian Walker, ARI | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), SD

2B Luis Arraez, MIA | DK: $4.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

C Ryan Jeffers, MIN | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

1B Jake Cronenworth, SD | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Slade Cecconi (RHP), ARI

OF Esteury Ruiz, OAK | DK: $4.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), MIA

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Wilyer Abreu, BOS | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), MIN

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), MIA

OF Alex Verdugo, NYY | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Reese Olson (RHP), DET

OF Jurickson Profar, SD | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Slade Cecconi (RHP), ARI

OF Andy Pages, LAD | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

2B/3B Abraham Toro, OAK | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), MIA

OF Will Brennan, CLE | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

OF/SS Willi Castro, MIN | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

OF Wenceel Perez, DET | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP), NYY

SS Masyn Winn, STL | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Brad Keller (RHP), CWS Bullpen

3B Josh Rojas, SEA | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Ronel Blanco (RHP), HOU

SS Vaughn Grissom, BOS | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), MIN

3B/OF Tyler Nevin, OAK | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), MIA

OF Willie Calhoun, LAA | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Tyler Nevin MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Sonny Gray MORE than 35.5 Pitcher Fantasy Score

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!