Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’re getting back to business on some big slate action with 12 games on the Friday docket! This slate runs deep, from viable pitching top to bottom, and plenty of stacks to consider loading up on. This should be a fun one so let’s dive right on in! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

STL @ CLE (7:10 ET): 10 mph winds blowing IN from center/right.

PHI @ ATL (7:20 ET): 10 mph crosswinds blowing left to right.

WAS @ KC (8:10 ET): 10 mph winds blowing IN from center/right.

TOR @ MIN (8:10 ET): 10 mph winds blowing IN from right.

NYM @ COL (8:40 ET): Looks like there will be some rain around Coors Field tonight but the timing is a little iffy at this point. Tough to say whether or not any kind of delay would be needed if it does begin to rain but keep an eye on this forecast closer to first pitch.

MIA @ LAA (9:38 ET): Winds blowing OUT to center at 10+ mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

George Kirby (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.6k | vs. PIT

There is no shortage of big names taking the mound today, but we’ll lead off with Mariners’ righty George Kirby. He may not be a guy who is going to blow the opposition away with overpowering strikeout stuff (20.4% kRate, 8.9% SwStr%) but he is a guy who knows how to grind through innings and routinely put himself and his team in a position to win. Outside of a rough season debut against the Angels, Kirby has pitched through at least six innings in his eight outings since, earning a quality start in every game. He owns a sturdy 2.62 ERA, 3.73 xFIP, 1.01 WHIP, and a minuscule 2.2% BB% on the season. He’s also toe the rubber in his very pitcher-friendly home ballpark (T-Mobile Park: #5 most pitcher-friendly park).

Kirby and the Mariners welcome the Pirates into town this evening and it’s been a very stark tale of two halves for Pittsburgh early in this 2023 season. After jumping out to a 20-8 record to begin the year, they have since posted a 5-16 record across their last 21 games. Since that downward spiral began on April 30th, the Pirates have ranked dead last versus RHPs with the following offensive results: .202 AVG, .566 OPS, .261 wOBA, .076 ISO, and a 60 wRC+; their 26.0% kRate is also the 3rd highest in that span. Pittsburgh heads into this match-up with a slate-low 3.1 implied runs and this sets up as another excellent spot for Kirby to cover six, seven, or even eight innings while picking up at least a handful of strikeouts along the way.

Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10k | vs. SF

It’s an interesting spot to go to a discounted Freddy Peralta this evening. Despite American Family Field ranking as the #4 least pitcher-friendly ballpark, Peralta tends to excel on his home mound where he averages +27.5% more FPPG. In five home starts this season, spanning 29.2 IP, Peralta has posted an impressive 2.43 ERA, 3.70 xFIP, 0.98 WHIP, .179 opp AVG, 0.30 HR/9, and a 26.1% kRate. Peralta has also allowed a low 32.9% HardHit% this season and he leads all pitchers on this slate with an 86.4 mph average exit velo.

Peralta will draw a middling Giants opponent that pretty much hovers around league average offensively versus RHPs. Over the last month against righties, the Giants check in at 18th in AVG, 16th in OPS, 19th in wOBA, 13th in ISO, and 15th in wRC+. Their 24.7% kRate in that span is also the 7th highest. Overall, it feels like a strong spot to target Peralta, particularly at $8,800 on DraftKings, which feels a touch too cheap. At his best, Peralta is a player who has routinely earned a $10k+ DK price tag and he has simply been a much more effective pitcher at home.

Alex Wood (LHP), SF | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.5k | @ MIL

I generally try to avoid spotlighting two opposing pitchers in the same game but a big-time “flowchart play” this season has been to play any lefty pitcher with a pulse against the Brew Crew. Wood has not been in top form this season, pitching to a 4.05 ERA, 4.68 xFIP, and 1.45 WHIP, and he has yet to cover more than 4.2 innings in any of his five 2023 starts. He has been decent from a strikeout standpoint, posting a 22.8% kRate and 11.2% SwStr%.

But, of course, the primary draw for Alex Wood will be the Brewers' offense, or lack thereof, when facing off against left-handed pitchers. Milwaukee has an MLB-worst .209 AVG and .275 wOBA vs. LHPs this season to go along with a measly 70 wRC+ (2nd worst) and a monstrous 30.9% kRate. Alex Wood is dirt cheap on both sites today and I believe we may finally see him cover five or six full innings tonight. “Safe” isn’t the word I would use to describe him, but this is an opportune spot for the Giants' veteran lefty.

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11.1k | @ MIN

Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.3k | @ OAK

Chris Sale (LHP), BOS | DK: $9k, FD: $10.1k | @ ARI

Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.3k | vs. MIA

Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.7k | @ CLE

Randy Vasquez (RHP), NYY | DK: $4k, FD: N/A | vs. SD

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

New York Mets vs. Connor Seabold (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), NYM

Non-Coors Stacks

Atlanta Braves vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

+ Braves: 5.4 implied runs (ranks 1st among non-Coors teams).

+ Walker has not been overly sharp this season and he has really mailed it in on the road: 26.2 IP, 7.43 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 1.69 HR/9 Rate, and 18.0% kRate.

+ It’s a smaller 53 PA sample size, but the current Braves roster has some strong BvP history against Walker: .348 AVG, .438 wOBA, 18.9% kRate.

+ The 10-run over/under is the second-highest on the slate behind the Coors Field match-up (11 O/U).

+/- The PHI bullpen has been very middle-of-the-road this season, though they have tightened up and represent a top-10 bullpen over the last two weeks.

- The Braves offense can be very feast or famine and they’ve often been ineffective against even subpar RHPs.

- Braves rank 25th with an 82 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last two weeks.

- Braves are averaging 1.02 fewer runs per game at home.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley | Bargain Bat: Marcell Ozuna

Washington Nationals vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), KC

+ Nationals: 4.8 implied runs (ranks T-6th among non-Coors teams).

+ Lyles has been tragically bad as of late -- over his last five starts: 25.1 IP, 9.95 ERA, 6.02 xFIP, 1.54 WHIP, .391 opp wOBA, 2.50 HR/9, 17.1% kRate.

+ Lyles allows power to both sides of the plate: .293 ISO vs. RHBs, and .274 ISO vs. LHBs.

+ The Nationals have quietly been a top-10 offense over the last two weeks: .283 AVG (ranks 3rd), .782 OPS (7th), .341 wOBA (6th), 112 wRC+ (9th).

+ Royals have had a below-average bullpen this season including the 3rd highest WHIP (1.46).

+ Kauffman Stadium has ranked as the #4 hitter’s park this season.

+ Nationals have been much better on the road, averaging 4.82 runs/gm away (3.64 runs/gm at home).

+ WAS represents a very affordable stack -- the most expensive hitter is OF Lane Thomas (DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.2k).

- While they have been showing more power lately (.164 ISO vs. RHPs L2Wks), the Nationals rank dead last on the season with a .111 ISO against righties.

Favorite WAS Bats: Lane Thomas, Jeimer Candelario, Joey Meneses | Bargain Bat: Corey Dickerson

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Texas Rangers vs. Grayson Rodriguez (RHP), BAL

+ All TEX bats have a <10% pOwn%.

+ Rodriguez is one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball but he’s experiencing some growing pains at the MLB level -- through nine starts he owns a 6.21 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 2.14 HR/9 Rate, and a slate-high 52.8% HardHit%.

+ TEX ranks 5th in the MLB with a 41.8% HardHit%.

+ TEX offensive ranks in 2023: 1st in AVG, 3rd in OPS, 3rd in wOBA, 5th in ISO, 2nd in wRC+.

+ TEX has been lethal with RISP: .333 AVG, .387 wOBA, .206 ISO, 150 wRC+.

-/+ TEX averaging nearly a run less per game on the road, but their 5.88 runs/gm away still ranks 2nd in the MLB.

- Camden Yards has ranked as the second-worst hitter’s park this season.

- Rodriguez’s 3.83 xFIP is much better than his ERA, signaling that he has been the victim of a significant amount of bad luck -- he also sports a strong 26.2% kRate.

Favorite TEX Bats: Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Nathaniel Lowe | Bargain Bat: Leody Tavares

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Joe Musgrove (RHP), SD

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

1B Pete Alonso, NYM | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Connor Seabold (RHP), COL

OF Juan Soto, SD | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), NYY

2B Marcus Semien, TEX | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Grayson Rodriguez (RHP), BAL

OF Masataka Yoshida, BOS | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF Jorge Soler, MIA | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

OF Cedric Mullins, BAL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

1B Matt Olson, ATL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

2B Nolan Gorman, STL | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Shane Bieber (RHP), CLE

OF Lane Thomas, WAS | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), KC

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

2B/OF Jeff McNeil, NYM | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Connor Seabold (RHP), COL

1B/3B Alec Bohm, PHI | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jared Shuster (LHP), ATL

OF Brenton Doyle, COL | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), NYM

3B Jeimer Candelario, WAS | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), KC

C Francisco Alvarez, NYM | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Connor Seabold (RHP), COL

1B Joey Meneses, WAS | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), KC

2B Enmanuel Valdez, BOS | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

C Conner Wong, BOS | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

OF Corey Dickerson, WAS | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), KC

SS Zach Neto, LAA | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Nathaniel Lowe MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Martin Maldonado MORE than 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!