Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

For the first time in a few weeks, we finally have a Thursday evening slate that is substantial enough to warrant a write-up! We’ll be looking to fine-tune our small slate skills with five games landing on the main slate docket. As far as smaller slates go, this one sets up pretty well with a few decent arms and some attractive stack options. Let’s see if we can land on the right pieces today! Best of luck!

Note: The FanDuel main slate will begin at 6:40 ET with the inclusion of the CWS @ DET game. For the purposes of this newsletter, we’ll be focusing on the five mutually shared games.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

NYM @ CHC (7:40 ET): 10+ mph winds blowing IN from left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.6k | vs. OAK

To no one’s surprise, any quality arm taking on the Oakland A’s is going to garner some DFS recognition, particularly on a small slate like the one we’re breaking down today. Logan Gilbert is poised to be the “chalk du jour” but high ownership should not sway you away from what should be the safest play on the day. Gilbert’s solid 3.81 ERA is backed up by a much more impressive 2.94 xFIP this season, indicating he has been the victim of a decent amount of bad luck. He’s also posting a flat 1.00 WHIP to go along with a slate-best 30.6% kRate and .254 opp wOBA. Pitching on his home mound at T-Mobile Park (#5 most pitcher-friendly ballpark) further cements Gilbert as the top SP option on the slate.

Following last night’s loss, the Oakland A’s have officially dipped below a .200 win percentage with a record of 10-41. Their pitching woes are largely to blame for their abysmal record… well, besides their embarrassing ownership and front office. However, their offense, which has been fairly scrappy at times this season, is also on a massive downward trend. Over the last two weeks versus RHPs (313 PA), the A’s rank dead last with all of the following numbers: .171 AVG, .481 OPS, .221 wOBA, .060 ISO, 40 wRC+, and 29.7% kRate. That 40 wRC+ essentially tells us that Oakland is performing 60% worse than how a team full of league-average players would. No one needs me to tell them that the A’s are awful and Gilbert is a great DFS play today, but it is remarkable just *how* awful Oakland has been lately. Fading Gilbert will be a risky proposition on this small slate.

Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.7k | @ ATL

Nola is the only other high-caliber starting pitcher on the slate, alongside Logan Gilbert, and he should check in with noticeably lower ownership than Gilbert while facing a potent, but streaky, Braves offense. Nola showed some struggles in spring training which carried over into the start of the regular season, but he has been looking more like himself lately. He’s coming off his best start of the season against a pretty hot-hitting Cubs team where he threw seven innings of two-run ball while racking up a season-high 10 strikeouts. His numbers over his last five starts (34.1 IP) have been solid: 3.41 ERA, 3.83 xFIP, 0.84 WHIP, .200 opp AVG, .264 opp wOBA, and 23.7% kRate. He has two lackluster outings in that stretch, but they came in tough spots -- at the Dodgers and at Coors Field.

Folks may choose to look past Nola today since he is facing the Braves on the road. But, speaking as a Braves fan who has watched nearly every game this season, believe me when I say that they’ve had some major issues hitting even moderately decent right-handed pitchers… and Nola is more than decent -- at his best, he’s a certified ace. Looking at the last two-week splits versus RHPs (349 PA), the Braves rank 27th in AVG, 26th in OBP, 24th in wOBA, and 26th in wRC+. They’re also hitting .140 with a 23 wRC+ with runners in scoring position during that stretch. Their one redeeming quality is the fact that they have a .162 ISO (ranks 14th) and 12 HRs vs. RHPs in this recent two-week sample size. Essentially, if they aren’t hitting homers, Atlanta has not done much against RHPs and they’re averaging 1.15 fewer runs per game at home this season. So, while it pains me to expose my own team’s glaring weaknesses, one should not cross out Aaron Nola from DFS consideration simply because he’s facing the Braves on the road.

JP Sears (LHP), OAK | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.2k | @ SEA

Sears has been one of the few bright spots on a dreadful Oakland A’s pitching staff and, while he is not overly consistent, he has shown plenty of upside in relation to his DFS salaries today. Over his last six starts (33.0 IP), Sears has put up an attractive 27.9% kRate paired with a solid 1.18 WHIP. His 5.18 ERA in that span is a little rough but that is backed up by a decent 4.30 xFIP.

Sears began his MLB career last year and Seattle has been one club that Sears has found ample success against. In four starts versus Seattle (22.0 IP) since the start of 2022, Sears has come away with a 0.41 ERA, 3.26 xFIP, 0.95 WHIP, .224 opp wOBA, and a 27.7% kRate while stranding 96.9% of runners. When he faced the Mariners earlier this month, he pitched six shutout innings, allowing just four hits, and two walks, and racked up seven strikeouts -- good for 23.9 DKFP/43 FDFP. In general, the Mariners have struggled against lefty pitching this season, posting a .225 AVG (ranks 26th), .296 wOBA (24th), 92 wRC+ (23rd), and a 27.2% kRate (4th highest). Sears may not be the type of pitcher that we’d target on a larger slate, but on a small slate that is thin on worthy value pitching options, he makes a ton of sense.

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.2k | vs. NYM

Dylan Dodd (LHP), ATL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $7.5k | vs. PHI

Note: At the time of this writing, Milwaukee has not confirmed a starter for tonight’s game against the Giants. Keep an eye out on who they choose to roll out.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

New York Yankees vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), BAL

+ Yankees: 4.9 implied runs (ranks 3rd on the slate).

+ Gibson has shown some struggles on the road this season: 35.1 IP, 5.09 ERA, 4.90 xFIP, 1.39 WHIP, .307 opp AVG, .352 opp wOBA, and a meager 11.6% kRate.

+ In 42 PA vs. Gibson, the current Yankees roster has a .333 AVG, .395 wOBA, and 19% kRate.

+ NYY has ranked top-five vs. RHPs in OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ over the last two weeks.

+ Yankee Stadium has ranked as the #11 hitter’s park and #5 home run park this season.

- BAL has had an elite bullpen this season that ranks top five in most meaningful categories.

- The back of the Yankees' order has not shown much upside as of late.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, Anthony Rizzo | Bargain Bat: Harrison Bader

Chicago Cubs vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), NYM

+ Carrasco has been awful in four starts this season: 18.2 IP, 8.68 ERA, 6.25 xFIP, 1.55 WHIP, 12.8% kRate, .400 opp xwOBA, and 1.93 HR/9 Rate.

+ Carrasco has posted those poor results despite facing four mediocre-to-bad offenses (MIL, MIA, OAK, CLE).

+ Carrasco has shown some very poor reverse splits -- vs. RHBs: 11.57 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, .325 AVG, .441 wOBA, .300 ISO.

+ It’s only a 75 PA sample size, but the Cubs have been excellent against RHPs at home over the last two weeks: .865 OPS, .376 wOBA, .238 ISO, and 140 wRC+.

+ NYM bullpen has the 6th worst xFIP on the season, and the 2nd worst xFIP over the last two weeks.

- 10+ mph winds will be blowing in from left at the wind-sensitive Wrigley Field so home runs will be a bit more difficult to come by.

- Cubs: 4.3 implied runs (T-4th fewest on the slate).

Favorite CHC Bats: Christopher Morel, Seiya Suzuki, Nico Hoerner | Bargain Bat: Mike Tauchman

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Baltimore Orioles (LHBs Preferred) vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

+ BAL has been the #2 road offense in the MLB, averaging 5.92 runs/gm away.

+ Schmidt has allowed a slate-worst 91.4 mph average exit velo and 47.4% HardHit%.

+ Schmidt has shown heavily traditional splits -- vs. LHBs: 9.15 ERA, 2.14 WHIP, .356 AVG, .455 wOBA, .287 ISO.

+ BAL has been a top-10 offense vs. RHPs over the last two weeks and their 118 wRC+ in that span ranks 6th.

+ Yankee Stadium has ranked as the #11 hitter’s park and #5 home run park this season.

+ Seven out of nine batters in the BAL lineup have an 8% pOwn% or lower.

- NYY has had one of the best bullpens in the MLB, including a league-best 2.94 ERA this season.

- No Cedric Mullins in the BAL line-up today which takes away a potent lefty bat.

- Orioles: 4.2 implied runs (T-2nd fewest on the slate).

Favorite BAL Bats: Anthony Santander, Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson | Bargain Bat: Adam Frazier

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.4k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

1B Matt Olson, ATL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI

2B/OF Christopher Morel, CHC | DK: $5.1k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), NYM

1B Anthony Rizzo, NYY | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), BAL

OF Anthony Santander, BAL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

2B Bryson Stott, PHI | DK: $4.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Dylan Dodd (LHP), ATL

1B Rowdy Tellez, MIL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Giants Bullpen

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Seiya Suzuki, CHC | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), NYM

C/OF Blake Sabol, SF | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. TBA, MIL

OF Michael Conforto, SF | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.1k | vs. TBA, MIL

2B Adam Frazier, BAL | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

2B/SS Jose Caballero, SEA | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.4k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

C Francisco Alvarez, NYM | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI

2B/3B Owen Miller, MIL | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Giants Bullpen

OF Mike Tauchman, CHC | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2k | vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), NYM

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Adam Frazier LESS than 0.5 Hitter Strikeouts

Francisco Alvarez MORE than 0.5 Total Bases

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!