Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s a getaway day for a lot of clubs so there’s plenty of early baseball action popping off on this Wednesday afternoon. Eight games will land on the evening main slate docket. This slate sets up with some strong balance between pitching and hitting/stack options and, outside of the SEA/OAK game, every other game sets up as a fairly even match-up. Let’s lock and load! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

BAL @ NYY (7:05 ET): 10+ mph crosswinds blowing left to right.

DET @ KC (7:40 ET): A few low-coverage showers around the area but, if one does happen to roll over the ballpark, it shouldn’t cause any major issues.

NYM @ CHC (7:40 ET): Stiff 15 mph winds blowing IN from center/left. That’s a big advantage for pitchers in the most wind-affected MLB ballpark.

MIA @ COL (8:40 ET): More low-coverage showers around COL as well. No major problems are expected. Light winds blowing OUT to left.

BOS @ LAA (9:38 ET): 10 mph winds blowing OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.9k | vs. OAK

The Mariners’ top pitching prospect has surprised many through his first four career MLB starts. Miller came up directly from the Double-A level, where he wasn’t putting up overly exceptional numbers, but he has made the quick adjustment to the big leagues and sets up as a top pitching option on today’s main slate. Across his 25.1 IP, Miller has posted a 1.42 ERA, 0.51 WHIP, 25.0% kRate, and .143 opp wOBA. He has issued just two walks (2.3% BB%) and has yet to give up a big league home run. Miller is benefiting from a great deal of BABIP luck (.172 BABIP) which explains his 3.81 xFIP being over two runs higher than his ERA, but we’ll still look for him to continue rolling tonight.

Miller’s first start as a big leaguer came against this same Oakland A’s team on May 2nd. He went on to cover six innings on just 81 pitches while allowing two hits, one run, and he racked up 10 strikeouts -- a performance that earned him 30.3 DKFP/49 FDFP. Miller throws the 4-seam heater on nearly 70% of pitches and it sits in the mid-to-upper 90s. The A’s have the 4th lowest wOBA vs. RHP 4-seamers and are striking out with a league-high 26.4% kRate versus righties this season. The Mariners (-290 ML) are by far the heaviest favorites on the slate so we can anticipate another win/quality start for Miller to go along with around seven or eight strikeouts with decent double-digit K upside.

Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.6k | @ CHC

Those 15 mph winds blowing in at Wrigley this evening will create an excellent environment for pitchers. The sportsbooks are anticipating a low-scoring pitcher’s duel as well given this game’s slate-low 6.5-run over/under. Senga is coming off his best start in his young MLB career where he held one of the league’s top offenses, the Tampa Bay Rays, to just three hits and one run while notching 12 strikeouts across 6.0 IP. Senga has upped his kRate up to 29.4% paired with a solid 3.77 ERA and 3.85 xFIP. His one glaring issue is giving up walks (13.9% BB%) but if he can begin to lower that figure, he’ll be in line for another strong outing tonight.

The Cubs have been dangerous against RHPs lately, particularly when they’ve played at home. Over the last two weeks, when facing an RHP at home, the Cubs have posted a .306 AVG, .415 wOBA, .245 ISO, and 166 wRC+ to go along with a low-end 20.7% kRate and drawing a high 15.5% Walk Rate. They also have the hottest hitter in baseball, Christopher Morel, hitting a home run in just about every game since coming up from the minor leagues. But Senga has had a full seven days of rest heading into this start, and we can feel better about trusting him due to those stiff winds blowing in tonight. The Cubs are being pinned with a slate-low 3.5 implied runs and, while there are multiple scenarios where this start could get ugly for Senga, there are seemingly more pathways to success than failure.

Zack Greinke (RHP), KC | DK: $5.7k, FD: $7k | vs. DET

There is not a lot to love about the selection of value pitchers on this slate, but Greinke makes some amount of sense, mostly as a DraftKings SP2 option at $5,700. The big positive for Greinke today is the fact that he’s taking the mound at home where he averages +50.0% more FPPG. In five home starts (28.0 IP) this season, Greinke has come away with respectable results: 3.21 ERA, 4.01 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, 0.64 HR/9, .275 opp wOBA, and a 17.0% kRate. Nothing incredible, but ya get what ya pay for and we don’t exactly need a massive fantasy score out of Greinke to make him a worthwhile option.

Greinke draws a plus match-up against the Detroit Tigers, who have had some particularly rough results when playing on the road. Detroit is averaging just 3.50 runs/gm (2nd fewest) when playing away and against RHPs on the road this season, they’re putting up a meager .219 AVG, .281 wOBA, .111 ISO, 76 wRC+, and a 24.2% kRate. So the combination of Greinke having significantly better results at home and Detroit’s struggles on the road could work out fairly well. We’ll be happy with around 15-20 DKFP out of Greinke this evening, which is perfectly acceptable if that means we can drop more salary on bigger power bats.

Other Pitchers to Consider:

James Paxton (LHP), BOS | DK: $8.9k, FD: $10.4k | @ LAA

Marcus Stroman (RHP), CHC | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.9k | vs. NYM

Tony Gonsolin (RHP), LAD | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9k | @ ATL

Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.9k | @ COL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Miami Marlins vs. Karl Kauffman (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA

Non-Coors Stacks

San Diego Padres vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

+ Padres: 5.1 implied runs (T-1st among non-Coors teams).

+ Williams has not pitched well over his last five starts: 23.0 IP, 5.09 ERA, 5.05 xFIP, 1.43 WHIP, .352 opp wOBA, 1.60 HR/9 Rate.

+ Williams’ 10.1% Barrel% is the highest among today’s starting pitchers.

+ Nationals have a bottom-10 ranked bullpen.

+ Padres are trending in the right direction with a 109 wRC+ over the last week (ranks 11th) and they have plated seven runs in back-to-back games.

- Padres have an MLB-worst .211 AVG vs. RHPs.

- Padres have really struggled with RISP, hitting just .184 with a 68 wRC+ (ranking last in MLB).

Favorite SD Bats: Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jake Cronenworth | Bargain Bat: Matt Carpenter

Boston Red Sox vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

+ Red Sox: 4.8 implied runs (T-5th among non-Coors teams).

+ Anderson owns a slate-worst 6.26 xFIP and slate-low 13.7% kRate this season to go along with a 5.27 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, and .370 opp wOBA.

+ Red Sox have been hot versus LHPs over the last two weeks: .288 AVG, .395 OBP, .866 OPS, .379 wOBA, and 139 wRC+.

+ In 101 PA vs. Anderson, the current BOS roster owns a .388 AVG, .500 wOBA, and 10.9% kRate.

+ 10 mph winds blowing out to left in Anaheim tonight.

+ Angel Stadium has been the #7 hitter-friendly ballpark this season and the #4 ballpark in home run factor.

-/+ Angels’ bullpen has been fairly average this season but they are giving up quite a few home runs lately with a 1.94 HR/9 Rate over the last 14 days.

Favorite BOS Bats: Rafael Devers, Justin Turner, Masataka Yoshida | Bargain Bat: Rob Refsnyder

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Baltimore Orioles vs. Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY

+ Every Orioles hitters has a <5% pOwn%.

+ Cortes: 41% pOwn% (DraftKings) & 34% pOwn% (FanDuel) -- so an O’s stack represents significant leverage.

+ Despite his high projected ownership today, Cortes has pitched poorly as of late -- over his last four starts (20.0 IP), Cortes has posted a 7.65 ERA, 5.04 xFIP, 1.55 WHIP, .372 opp wOBA, and 2.30 HR/9 Rate.

+ Orioles have been a top-10 offense vs. LHPs this season: .345 wOBA (ranks 8th), .792 OPS (8th), .345 wOBA (8th), .182 ISO (8th), and 120 wRC+ (6th). Their 20.0% kRate vs. LHPs is also the 6th lowest.

+ Yankee Stadium has been the #11 hitter’s park and #5 home run park this season.

+ Orioles are averaging 5.80 runs/gm on the road (3rd most) -- +1.45 runs/gm more than at home.

- Yankees have a top-10 bullpen.

- In 103 PA vs. Cortes, the current BAL lineup has a .175 AVG, .204 wOBA, and 40.8% kRate.

Favorite BAL Bats: Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins | Bargain Bat: Austin Hays

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Tony Gonsolin (RHP), LAD

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

OF Juan Soto, SD | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

OF Jorge Soler, MIA | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Karl Kauffman (RHP), COL

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Matthew Boyd (LHP), DET

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

C Elias DIaz, COL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA

2B/OF Christopher Morel, CHC | DK: $4.9k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM

OF Jarred Kelenic, SEA | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Ken Waldichuk (LHP), OAK

OF Anthony Santander, BAL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY

OF Lane Thomas, WAS | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), SD

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Bryan De La Cruz, MIA | DK: $4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Karl Kauffman (RHP), COL

OF Harrison Bader, NYY | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL

1B Justin Turner, BOS | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

3B Jeimer Candelario, WAS | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), SD

1B Matt Carpenter, SD | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

2B/SS Jose Caballero, SEA | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Ken Waldichuk (LHP), OAK

OF Mike Tauchman, CHC | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2k | vs. Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

*Sandy Alcantara MORE than 4.0 Pitcher Strikeouts

Aaron Judge MORE than 9.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

*Discounted prop.

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!