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- Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 5/23 | Processing a Loaded 10-Game Tuesday Slate!
Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 5/23 | Processing a Loaded 10-Game Tuesday Slate!
Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.
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Main Slate Rundown 🏟
Another big baseball Tuesday comes around, and we’re facing a hefty 10-game main slate this evening! We’ve got aces on the hill, a solid selection of value pitchers, another Coors Field match-up, and there’s no significant inclement weather to worry about. Given the amount of solid starting pitchers on this slate, figuring out the top (non-Coors) stacks stands to be the trickiest part of the day. This one is gonna get spicy so let’s dig in! Best of luck!
Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:
Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️
Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.
BAL @ NYY (7:05 ET): 5-10 mph winds IN from right.
LAD @ ATL (7:20 ET): Scattered showers could be around during the scheduled game time and will bring forth the possibility of a late start or delay, but they very well end up playing this one completely dry as well.
DET @ KC (7:40 ET): Light winds blowing IN from right.
NYM @ CHC (7:40 ET): Light winds blowing IN from center/right.
BOS @ LAA (9:38 ET): Winds OUT to left around 10 mph.
Pitchers to Consider ⚾
Yu Darvish (RHP), SD | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.4k | @ WAS
Darvish wasn’t on his A-game in his previous start against the Royals, but in the five outings prior he put up an excellent 2.59 ERA, 3.23 xFIP, 1.02 WHIP, .205 opp AVG, and 31.1% kRate while stranding 83.9% of runners across 31.1 IP. Darvish has also allowed a low 26.0% HardContact% over the last month which plays well into his match-up tonight.
The Nationals rank last in the MLB with a .107 ISO vs. RHPs to go along with a low-end 30.3% HardContact% (ranks 23rd). They are a fairly tough team to strike out (20% kRate vs. RHPs, 5th lowest), but they’re also just not an overly effective offense against righties (81 wRC+, ranks 28th) which can allow for opposing starters to pitch deep into games; for DFS purposes, those extra innings pitched can help offset some of that lack of strikeout upside. The Nats have also been notably worse at home where they’ve averaged just 3.48 runs/gm and own a 68 wRC+ against righties. If Darvish can get into a groove early, he’ll have a chance to cover around seven innings of work, stack up around a strikeout per inning, and, hopefully, come away with a win and quality start for the favored Padres (-155 ML).
Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), DET | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.6k | @ KC
We’ll follow the same process as the aforementioned Yu Darvish and overlook Eduardo Rodriguez’s lackluster previous outing and, instead, focus on how dominant he was in the five starts prior. In his five outings spanning 35.2 IP from April 18th to May 10th, Rodriguez put on an absolute pitching clinic -- in that stretch, he came away with a microscopic 0.25 ERA, 2.92 xFIP, 0.56 WHIP, .127 opp AVG, and 30.6% kRate. Rodriguez is allowing a slate-low 85.5 mph average exit velocity and 28.2% HardHit% this season.
On the season, the Royals have been around a league-average offense versus lefty pitchers with a 104 wRC+ (ranks 18th). However, they’ve really been struggling at the plate (vs. LHPs) in the last two weeks, hitting just .158 with a .245 wOBA, 52 wRC+, and 26.2% kRate. Rodriguez seems to have found something this season and he’s putting up the best advanced metrics of his career. There’s no guarantee that he’ll snap right back into that same form he was in from 4/18-5/10, nor that the Royals will continue to have major issues hitting lefty pitching, but he’ll certainly make for a worthy DFS target if you’re looking for a high upside option.
Eury Perez (RHP), MIA | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.1k | @ COL
Venturing to Coors Field is always a risky proposition when it comes to rostering a pitcher, but an intriguing rookie is toeing the rubber for Miami tonight. 20-year-old Eury Perez is not only Miami’s No. 1 prospect in their farm system, but he is also ranked as the top overall pitching prospect in the entire league by both MLB.com and FanGraphs. Perez makes his third career MLB start tonight -- his first on the road -- and while he hasn’t faced the most daunting level of big league competition thus far (vs. CIN & vs. WAS), that should not take away from his impressive results: 2.79 ERA, 3.01 xFIP, 1.03 WHIP, and 33.3% kRate. Perez was posting nearly identical results across his six starts and 31.0 IP in Triple-A this season.
The risk in sliding Perez into DFS lineups is quite evident. He’s young, inexperienced, and making his first MLB road start in the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the MLB. However, the Rockies are no strangers to posting dud performances at home, and their 85 wRC+ vs. RHPs ranks them 24th in the MLB. They also have a 26.0% kRate versus Perez’s primary pitches -- the 4-seamer and slider, which he has thrown on 77.1% of pitches in his first two big league starts. Perez is on the fast track to becoming one of the MLB’s next young aces, and at his current DFS prices, he’s worth the gamble in contrarian GPP builds.
Other Pitchers to Consider:
Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL | DK: $12.3k, FD: $11.5k | vs. LAD
Sonny Gray (RHP), MIN | DK: $10.6k, FD: $10.2k | vs. SF
Drew Smyly (LHP), CHC | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.9k | vs. NYM
Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA | DK: $6.7k, FD: $6.8k | vs. OAK
Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS | DK: $6.3k, FD: $8.5k | @ LAA
Team Stacks to Target 🎯
Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.
Obligatory Coors Field Stacks
Miami Marlins vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL
Colorado Rockies vs. Eury Perez (RHP), MIA
Non-Coors Stacks
Seattle Mariners vs. Luis Medina (RHP), OAK
+ Mariners: 5.1 implied runs (ranks T-1st among non-Coors teams).
+ It’s becoming a bit redundant to constantly target the A’s, but their pitching staff is virtually like a roaming Coors Field, bringing high upside to any ballpark they pitch in.
+ Medina (6.88 ERA) is allowing a huge 29.4% HR/FB Rate alongside a .368 ISO to RHBs and .267 ISO to LHBs.
+ Medina has stranded just 50.0% of runners this season, easily the worst mark among today’s starters.
+ As usual, getting some innings against Oakland’s MLB-worst bullpen(6.62 ERA, 5.74 xFIP, 1.72 WHIP, 18.2% kRate) is a major plus.
+ SEA has been fairly average against RHPs this season, but they’re trending upwards in the short-term, ranking 9th with a 109 wRC+ vs. righties over the last week (163 PA).
+ Despite landing in a strong spot, all of SEA’s projected hitters have a <10% pOwn%.
- SEA owns a 25.3% kRate vs. RHPs (2nd highest).
- As mentioned, SEA has not been overly effective against RHPs on the season -- their .308 wOBA ranks 19th.
Favorite SEA Bats: Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez | Bargain Bat: Jose Caballero
Chicago Cubs vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM
+ RHP Kodai Senga was originally scheduled to start for NYM today but he’ll be replaced by Tylor Megill and represents a more advantageous match-up for the Cubs.
+ Megill averages -24.8% less FPPG on the road -- in 19.0 IP on the road this season, he owns a poor 4.82 xFIP, 1.79 WHIP, .379 opp wOBA, and 1.89 HR/9 Rate.
+ It’s a small 58 PA sample size, but CHC has been dominant vs. RHPs at home over the last two weeks: .340 AVG, .466 OBP, 1.040 OPS, .449 wOBA, .234 ISO, and 189 wRC+ with just a 10.3% kRate.
+ The NYM bullpen has not been great this season -- their 4.63 xFIP is the 6th worst and their 5.21 xFIP L2Wks is the 3rd worst.
+ CHC sets up as another low-owned leverage stack -- aside from C. Morel, every other Cubs bat has a <10% pOwn%.
-/+ Cubs: 4.5 implied runs (ranks T-7th among non-Coors teams).
- Some light 5-10 mph winds will be blowing in at Wrigley Field tonight -- the most wind-affected ballpark in the MLB.
- Megill has allowed 3 ER or fewer in all but one of his nine starts this season.
Favorite CHC Bats: Christopher Morel, Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki | Bargain Bat: Mike Tauchman
Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔
Detroit Tigers vs. Mike Mayers (RHP), KC
+ Tigers: 4.9 implied runs (ranks 5th among non-Coors teams).
+ Mayers has only pitched 2.2 MLB innings in relief (last Wednesday) but he’s been working as a traditional starter in the minor leagues -- in 34.0 IP in Triple-A this season, he has come away with a poor 6.88 ERA and 1.68 WHIP.
+ In 239.0 IP in his MLB career, Mayers has a 5.08 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and 1.66 HR/9 Rate -- fairly poor numbers for someone coming out of the bullpen, often in more advantageous situations.
+ DET has been on a short-term tear with a 119 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last week.
+ There are plenty of cheap bats in this DET lineup, and even rolling out a small two or three-man stack would be a nice way to gain some leverage.
+ Kauffman Stadium: #6 most hitter-friendly ballpark.
-/+ The KC bullpen has been fairly average this season.
- DET is averaging just 3.60 runs/gm on the road (2nd fewest).
Favorite DET Bats: Riley Greene, Zach McKinstry, Spencer Torkelson | Bargain Bat: Akil Baddoo
One-Off Bats ☝️
A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.
OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Bobby Miller (RHP), LAD
OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL
1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAA | DK: $6.4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS
OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Colin Rea (RHP), MIL
OF Jorge Soler, MIA | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL
OF Masataka Yoshida, BOS | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA
1B Freddie Freeman, LAD | DK: $5.1k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL
OF Jarred Kelenic, SEA | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Luis Medina (RHP), OAK
2B/OF Christopher Morel, CHC | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM
OF Riley Greene, DET | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Mike Mayers (RHP), KC
OF Christian Yelich, MIL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. JP France (RHP), HOU
Bargain Batters 💸
Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.
Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings
OF Bryan De La Cruz, MIA | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL
OF Brenton Doyle, COL | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Eury Perez (RHP), MIA
OF Esteury Ruiz, OAK | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA
3B Jeimer Candelario, WAS | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Yu Darvish (RHP), SD
2B Enmanuel Valdez, BOS | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA
OF Mickey Moniak, LAA | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS
OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Bobby Miller (RHP), LAD
2B/3B Eduardo Escobar, NYM | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), CHC
2B/SS Jose Caballero, SEA | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Luis Medina (RHP), OAK
OF Mike Tauchman, CHC | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2k | vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM
Home Run Calls of the Day 💣
⚾️ Home Run Calls ⚾️
Please participate in our thrilling HR Calls contest and get a chance to win big!
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- Like & Retweet this post.Today's Picks:
@Sha@ShannonOnSportsrge Soler
@Fla@flattyler83rdan Alvarez
@Rya@Ryan_Humphriesley… httptwitter.com/i/web/status/1…p— 𝗟𝗜𝗡𝗘𝗦𝗧𝗔𝗥 𝗗𝗙𝗦 & 𝗣𝗥𝗢𝗣𝗦 (@LineStarApp)
7:05 PM • May 23, 2023
Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Eury Perez MORE than 4.5 Strikeouts
Seiya Suzuki MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
🆕 Props AI 🆕
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.
Best of luck out there today, everyone!
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