Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Time to dive back into a new week of MLB DFS, and we’ll begin with an appealing mid-sized Monday slate. Seven games land on the docket, and we’ll have a little extra time to tinker with lineups with the first game getting underway at 7:20 ET. This slate features a Coors Field match-up (11.5 O/U) with the Marlins visiting the Rockies, some fairly solid pitching options, and quite a few offenses in strong spots with nine teams possessing at least a 4.5 implied run total. There will be no significant weather concerns either. All in all, it’s looking like a fun start to this week’s baseball action so let’s see if we can crack the code! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

LAD @ ATL (7:20 ET): Chance for a stray shower or two, but no severe weather is expected. Not a lot of concern here.

BOS @ LAA (9:38 ET): 10 mph winds blowing OUT to left/center.

Poll of the Day 🗳️

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.5k | vs. OAK

Castillo has drawn some ire from those who have rostered him in recent weeks but, in his defense, he is coming off of a pretty brutal five-start stretch. His last five outings have been against STL, TOR, HOU, TEX, and BOS. Four of those teams currently rank inside the top 10 in wRC+ vs. RHPs on the season. Despite coming away with a 5.67 ERA in his last five games, Castillo still leads all traditional starters on this slate with a 3.45 xFIP, 13.9% SwStr%, and 5.3% BB% on the season. His 3.31 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 27.8% kRate are all very respectable figures as well.

As you might have already assumed, Castillo’s big draw will be his Oakland A’s opponent. The 10-38 A’s have not been atrocious offensively, and many of their struggles stem from a shabby group of starting pitchers that are backed up by the worst bullpen in the MLB. That being said, their bats have cooled off quite a bit as of late, and over the last two weeks versus RHPs, they’re hitting for a league-worst .195 AVG and a league-high 28.1% kRate. Oakland is a very righty-heavy team, and Castillo has posted excellent righty-on-righty numbers this season, including a .196 AVG, .244 wOBA, 2.98 xFIP, 0.81 WHIP, and 29.9% kRate. Seattle is also being pinned with exceptionally heavy -310 ML odds at home in the pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. Castillo will need to cut down on his recent barrel rate as of late, after allowing 12 barreled balls over the last 30 days (bottom 5th percentile). Fortunately, the A’s rank 24th with a 7.1% Barrel% and 29th with a 32.8% HardHit% this season. Castillo won’t be a sneaky play on this slate, but perhaps his subpar performance over the last month will keep some folks away from him this evening.

Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN | DK: $8.1k, FD: $10.1k | vs. SF

Is it time to start taking Bailey Ober a bit more seriously? Maybe so. I still believe he’s pitching above his head a bit and he’s benefiting from some BABIP luck (.253 BABIP this season vs. a .283 career BABIP). But at this point, we should begin trusting the sample size. Ober has five starts and 30.1 IP in 2023, and he has maintained a sub-2.00 ERA, sub-1.00 WHIP, and an above-average 24.1% kRate. His 4.56 xFIP indicates that some significant regression is due, and his statcast numbers are concerning -- primarily his 57.5% Fly Ball Rate combined with a high amount of barreled balls allowed. Fortunately, he’s at home at the #9 most pitcher-friendly Target Field, and he has only surrendered two home runs this season.

The Giants represent a manageable opponent for Ober this evening. Over the last two weeks versus RHPs, San Francisco ranks 24th in AVG, 26th in OPS, 26th in wOBA, 27th in ISO, 26th in wRC+, and 28th in HardContact%. They’re just not doing a lot of damage against righties as of late. The Giants also have a 24.8% kRate vs. RHPs on the season (5th highest). I’m not overly thrilled with the $10,300 on FanDuel, but Ober makes ample sense on DraftKings at $8,100 today.

Michael Lorenzen (RHP), DET | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.8k | @ KC

While he is not the biggest strikeout guy (18.6% kRate), there are plenty of reasons to like Lorenzen at his palatable DFS salaries today. Lorenzen has maintained a 2.10 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over his last five starts (30.0 IP) while allowing a .222 AVG, and .259 wOBA, and he gave up just a single home run. Much like the aforementioned Bailey Ober, Lorenzen’s less-than-ideal 4.20 xFIP doesn’t bode well for his long-term success. But, for the most part, he has been getting the job done lately and has even pitched through seven full innings in two of his last three outings.

The Royals offense got a little hot for a brief while, but they’ve quickly dropped back down to the depths of the offensive rankings. They check in dead last with a 73 wRC+ vs. RHPs this season alongside a lofty 25.1% kRate (3rd highest). Looking at their splits vs. RHPs in the last two weeks (416 PA), they’re 26th in AVG, 27th in OPS, 28th in wOBA, 29th in wRC+, and they’ve struck out at a 26.2% clip. Lorenzen won’t break the bank in DFS lineups, and he is poised to deliver another respectable performance.

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU | DK: $10k, FD: $10.8k | @ MIL

Corbin Burners (RHP), MIL | DK: $9k, FD: $9.7k | vs. HOU

Brady Singer (RHP), KC | DK: $7k, FD: $7.4k | vs. DET

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Miami Marlins vs. *Chase Anderson (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA

Non-Coors Stacks

Boston Red Sox vs. Jaime Barria (RHP), LAA

+ Red Sox: 5.0 implied runs (ranks T-2nd among non-Coors teams).

+ Jaime Barria has been solid in 23.0 IP out of the Angels bullpen this season, posting a 1.96 ERA, 3.77 xFIP, and 0.96 WHIP; however, there is reason to believe he won’t fare as well transitioning to a starting role.

+ In 268.0 career IP as a starter, Barria has put up a lackluster 4.03 ERA, 5.02 xFIP, 1.32 WHIP, 1.61 HR/9 Rate, and 18.5% kRate.

+ Barria’s numbers have worsened dramatically this season when going through the second time through the order.

+ Barria has traditional splits and BOS has plenty of LHBs to throw at him tonight.

+ BOS has cooled off recently, but they’re still a top-five offense vs. RHPs: .271 AVG (ranks 2nd), .788 OPS (2nd), .341 wOBA (2nd), 111 wRC+ (5th).

+ 10 mph winds blowing out to left/center in Anaheim tonight.

- BOS is averaging 1.14 fewer runs/gm on the road.

- BOS has an average/below-average .307 wOBA and 88 wRC+ vs. RHPs in the last two weeks (285 PA).

Favorite BOS Bats: Rafael Devers, Mastaka Yoshida, Alex Verdugo | Bargain Bat: Enmanuel Valdez (Valdez is listed as DTD so if he doesn’t play, Raimel Tapia is another worthy bargain bat if he starts)

Seattle Mariners vs. Kyle Muller (LHP), OAK

+ Mariners: 4.8 implied runs (ranks 5th among non-Coors teams).

+ Muller is easily the lowest quality starter on this slate; over his last seven starts, he owns a 9.48 ERA, 5.53 xFIP, 2.23 WHIP, .393 opp AVG, .458 opp wOBA, 2.0 HR/9 Rate, and 13.8% kRate.

+ Muller is in the bottom 10th percentile in average exit velocity and bottom 5th percentile in barreled balls over the last 30 days.

+ As per usual, gaining exposure to OAK’s MLB-worst bullpen (6.49 ERA, 5.75 xFIP, 1.70 WHIP) is always a major plus for any offense facing them.

- SEA has had some significant struggles with LHPs this season, hitting just .211 with a .284 wOBA, 83 wRC+, and a high 27.5% kRate.

- T-Mobile Park is the #5 least hitter-friendly ballpark.

- SEA is averaging only 4.14 runs/gm at home and is traveling back from a long 10-day East Coast road trip.

Favorite SEA Bats: Jarred Kelenic, Eugenio Suarez, Teoscar Hernandez | Bargain Bat: Jose Caballero

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Minnesota Twins vs. John Brebbia (RHP) - Probable Opener, Sean Manaea (LHP) - Probable Long Reliever, SF

+ All MIN bats in the projected lineup have a <10% pOwn%.

+ Twins: 4.9 implied runs (ranks 4th among non-Coors teams).

+ Sean Manaea is expected to serve as the Giants’ long reliever and has had plenty of struggles this season: 7.81 ERA, 4.86 xFIP, 1.70 WHIP, 2.60 HR/9 Rate.

+ MIN has been hitting LHPs a bit better as of late with a 104 wRC+ and a 40.2% HardContact% (ranks 6th) in the L2Wks.

+ MIN averaging 5.18 runs/gm at home this season.

+ SF bullpen has an MLB-high 1.42 HR/9 Rate and 17.1% HR/FB Rate

- The Twins are banged up with Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler on the IL and Byron Buxton listed as day-to-day (but there’s a decent chance he’s in the lineup today).

- Target Field is the #9 least hitter-friendly ballpark.

Favorite MIN Bats: Byron Buxton, Alex Kiriloff, Carlos Correa| Bargain Bat: Kyle Farmer

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Gavin Stone (RHP), LAD

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAA | DK: $6.4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

OF Masataka Yoshida, BOS | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Jaime Barria (RHP), LAA

OF Byron Buxton, MIN | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. J. Brebbia (RHP, PO), S. Manaea (LHP, PLR), SF

OF Jorge Soler, MIA | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Chase Anderson (RHP), COL

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD | DK: $5.1k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

C Salvador Perez, KC | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), DET

OF Charlie Blackmon, COL | DK: $5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA

OF Riley Greene, DET | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

OF Jarred Kelenic, SEA | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Kyle Muller (LHP), OAK

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

2B/OF Zach McKinstry, DET | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

OF Teoscar Hernandez, SEA | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Kyle Muller (LHP), OAK

OF Brenton Doyle, COL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA

OF Esteury Ruiz, OAK | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

1B Alex Kiriloff, MIN | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. J. Brebbia (RHP, PO), S. Manaea (LHP, PLR), SF

1B LaMonte Wade Jr., SF | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

3B Kyle Farmer, MIN | DK: $3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. J. Brebbia (RHP, PO), S. Manaea (LHP, PLR), SF

2B Enmanuel Valdez, BOS | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jaime Barria (RHP), LAA

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Gavin Stone (RHP), LAD

3B/OF Willi Castro, MIN | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.3k | vs. J. Brebbia (RHP, PO), S. Manaea (LHP, PLR), SF

2B/SS Jose Caballero, SEA | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Kyle Muller (LHP), OAK

OF Raimel Tapia, BOS | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Jaime Barria (RHP), LAA

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Ronald Acuña Jr. MORE than 9.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

Kyle Farmer MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!