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- Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 5/2 | Running Through Tuesday's Loaded 12-Game Slate!
Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 5/2 | Running Through Tuesday's Loaded 12-Game Slate!
Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.
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Main Slate Rundown 🏟
Another Tuesday comes around and you know what that means… it’s time for some big slate huntin’. A dozen games land on the main slate menu and, as you might expect, this one looks to have it all -- big-time arms, intriguing value pitchers, Coors Field is in play, and there are many strong cases to make for many other non-Coors stacks/hitters. It’s gonna be a doozy so let’s get cooking! Best of luck!
Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:
Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️
Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.
CHC @ WAS (7:05 ET): Low-end chance of a late start due to some lingering rain.
CLE @ NYY (7:05 ET): Might see a few sprinkles here but nothing major. Winds blowing OUT to center a little over 10 mph.
TOR @ BOS (7:10 ET): More low-end rain chances here. Light winds blowing OUT to left.
MIN @ CWS (7:10 ET): Stiff winds blowing OUT to left/center at 15+ mph.
LAA @ STL (7:45 ET): 10-15 mph winds blowing OUT to right.
MIL @ COL (8:40 ET): Decent chance of a late start here due to lingering rain but things clear up as the evening goes on so a PPD seems unlikely.
SEA @ OAK (9:40 ET): Some rain could spark a late start or early delay but minimal PPD risk with the forecast clearing later on.
Pitchers to Consider ⚾
Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI | DK: $10k, FD: $11.8k | @ TEX
Gallen had some off-season rust to shake off in a couple of tough road match-ups to start the season (@ LAD, @ SD) but he has been the epitome of “lights out” in his four games since. In these last four starts (27.0 IP), Gallen has posted some video game results: 0.00 ERA, 1.17 xFIP, 0.44 WHIP, .130 opp WOBA, and a titanic 44.6% kRate. He issued just a single walk in those 27.0 innings as well. He’s pitching like an absolute stud at the moment.
The tricky part with Gallen today will stem from his match-up. The Rangers have been a top-five offense against RHPs this season -- .344 wOBA (ranks 5th) & 120 wRC+ (4th) -- and they’ve been even more dangerous at home. However, nearly half of Gallen’s pitches thrown are four-seam fastballs. The Rangers have ranked 18th in wOBA vs. four-seamers off of RHPs this season to go along with a fairly high 23.9% kRate. So, while the Rangers represent a tough match-up for any pitcher, with the way Gallen has been hurling it lately, there might not be any MLB offense that would fare too well against the stuff that he’s been throwing.
Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.8k | @ KC
This slate is fairly deep on enticing pitching options so, while there are a handful of high-end arms that look like great DFS plays, I wanted to spotlight a couple of cheaper arms today. Tyler Wells has been fairly sharp thus far in his third MLB season. Across 29.0 IP, he has pitched to a 2.79 ERA, 4.31 xFIP, and owns a slate-best 0.72 WHIP next to just a 2.9% Walk Rate. He’s a slightly below-average strikeout pitcher (21.9% kRate this season) but his opponent may be able to help him out in that regard today.
By all means, the Royals have been one of the worst, if not THE worst, offenses in the MLB against RHPs. On the season, against righties, they’re hitting just .214 (ranks last) with a .262 wOBA (last) and 61 wRC+ (last). Their 26.0% kRate is also the third-highest. Things get even uglier if you look at their home splits vs. RHPs: .186 AVG, .249 wOBA, and 49 wRC+. Essentially, if you took a team of league-average hitters and cut their production in half, that’s the level that the Royals have played at this season when facing RHPs at home. And Wells is a guy who has averaged +21.9% more FPPG when pitching on the road. He threw 102 pitches in his last outing, so we know he can go deep into a game, and he’ll set up as a worthy option out of the lower mid-range of DFS pricing today.
Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8.4k | @ NYY
There will be some sufficient risk involved in the final spotlighted pitcher of the day but plenty of potential reward as well. Tanner Bibee made his MLB debut six days ago against the Rockies and threw 5.2 one-run innings on 91 pitches while racking up eight Ks. Before getting called up, he had been very impressive in the minor league system and, while it’s a small 15.1 IP sample size across three Triple-A starts this year, he put up a 1.76 ERA, 4.20 xFIP, 1.04 WHIP, and 31.1% kRate. He’s got a four-pitch mix, primarily consisting of a four-seamer and a slider. His fastball sits mid-90s and his slider works as his put-away pitch that accounted for a 38.9% Whiff% in his debut last week. Cleveland is notorious for their knack of developing young pitchers from their farm system and Bibee looks like he may be the next young hurler that the Guardians strike gold with.
Bibee will take on a depleted Yankees lineup whose two biggest hitters, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, are currently on the IL. The Yankees have just been awful offensively lately and against RHPs in the last two weeks (325 PA, so not an insignificant sample size), they rank dead last in the MLB with a .246 wOBA and 54 wRC+. There will always be some added volatility with rostering an inexperienced pitcher like Bibee, even if the match-up looks great on paper, but he may very well be worth the investment today.
Other Pitchers to Consider:
Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY | DK: $11.5k, FD: $11.5k | vs. CLE
Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11k | @ CWS
Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.2k | vs. SF
Matt Strahm (LHP), PHI | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.6k | @ LAD
Mason Miller (RHP), OAK | DK: $5.7k, FD: $7.5k | vs. SEA
Hayden Wesneski (RHP), CHC | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.6k | @ WAS
Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA | DK: $4k, FD: N/A | @ OAK (DraftKings GPP SP2 play)
Team Stacks to Target 🎯
Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.
Obligatory Coors Field Stacks:
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL
Colorado Rockies vs. Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL
Non-Coors Stacks:
Minnesota Twins vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS
+ Twins: 4.9 implied runs (ranks T-2nd on the slate among non-Coors teams).
+ Kopech has put up some ugly results this season, ranking last among today’s SPs with a 7.01 ERA, 5.38 xFIP, 1.71 WHIP, and 13.4% Walk Rate.
+ Kopech is giving up a massive amount of hard contact with a 93.0 mph avg exit velo, 58.1% HardHit%, 14.3% Barrel%, and .411 opp wOBA (.450 xwOBA).
+ The White Sox have had arguably the worst bullpen in the MLB: 6.86 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 1.81 HR/9 Rate.
+ Against RHPs in the last two weeks, the Twins have a league-best .245 ISO and 143 wRC+, and rank 2nd with a .365 wOBA.
+ Winds will be blowing out to left/center at 15+ mph.
+ Guaranteed Rate Field is the #5 most hitter-friendly ballpark.
- The Twins do not offer up much stolen base upside, ranking dead last with just four SBs on the season.
- Even with 12 games on the slate, including a Coors Field match-up, a Twins stack looks like it will be high-owned.
Favorite MIN Bats: Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Joey Gallo | Bargain Bat: Trevor Larnach
Chicago Cubs vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS
+ Cubs: 4.9 implied runs (ranks T-2nd on the slate among non-Coors teams).
+ Trevor Williams has a reasonably decent 4.10 ERA on the season, but he has been getting a bit lucky based on his poor 5.13 xFIP.
+ Williams is allowing a high 10.6% Barrel%.
+ Nationals own a bottom-10 ranked bullpen.
+ Cubs are averaging 6.00 runs/gm on the road with a .300 AVG (1st), .373 wOBA (2nd), and 132 wRC+ (2nd).
+ Cubs have 26 stolen bases this season (6th most).
- Cubs rank 29th with a 27.0% HardContact% vs. RHPs.
- Williams has allowed a low 83.9 mph average exit velo in the last 30 days (95th percentile among pitchers).
- The Cubs are a righty-heavy offense and Williams is allowing a low .287 wOBA to RHBs this season.
Favorite CHC Bats: Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner, Cody Bellinger | Bargain Bat: Nelson Velazquez
Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Julio Urias (LHP), LAD
+ Phillies have been an above average offense vs. LHPs: .270 AVG, .753 OPS, .326 wOBA, 101 wRC+.
+ Bryce Harper is expected to return to the lineup today as the DH.
+ Urias has given up 11 ER in his last two starts, including 14 hits, four home runs, and four walks.
+ Urias has shown some poor reverse splits this season, allowing a .425 wOBA and .350 ISO to LHBs -- the Phillies should have four or five LHBs in their lineup today.
+ The Dodgers bullpen has not been great this season, ranking inside the bottom 10 in most key metrics -- 4.65 ERA, 4.52 xFIP, 1.44 WHIP, .276 opp AVG.
- Despite his recent struggle, Urias is typically one of the more reliable starters in the league, finishing third in the NL Cy Young voting last year, and he could easily bounce back at home tonight.
- Phillies: 3.6 implied runs (T-3rd fewest on the slate).
Favorite PHI Bats: Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos | Bargain Bat: Edmundo Sosa
One-Off Bats ☝️
A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.
OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $6.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Graham Ashcraft (RHP), CIN
SS Bo Bichette, TOR | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS
OF Byron Buxton, MIN | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS
2B Ketel Marte, ARI | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX
OF Ian Happ, CHC | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS
OF Bryce Harper, PHI | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Julio Urias (LHP), LAD
OF Hunter Renfroe, LAA | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Steven Matz (LHP), STL
1B Rowdy Tellez, MIL | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL
3B Ryan McMahon, COL | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL
SS Jorge Mateo, BAL | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Ryan Yarbrough (LHP), KC
C Willson Contreras, STL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA
OF Jarred Kelenic, SEA | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Mason Miller (RHP), OAK
Bargain Batters 💸
Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.
Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings
2B/SS Tommy Edman, STL | DK: $4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA
OF Cody Bellinger, CHC | DK: $4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS
OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA
1B Christian Walker, ARI | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX
OF Max Kepler, MIN | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS
OF Trevor Larnach, MIN | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS
OF Rob Refsnyder, BOS | DK: $3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR
OF Edward Olivares, KC | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL
3B/OF Nick Senzel, CIN | DK: $2.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), SD
SS Zach Neto, LAA | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Steven Matz (LHP), STL
Home Run Calls of the Day 💣
🔥 Home Run Calls🔥
@ShannonOnSports- Joey Gallo
@flattyler83- Byron Buxton
@Ryan_Humphries- The GREAT Hunter Renfroe
Retweet, and if your expert's player hits a home run, you could win $25 or a 1-month subscription! We'll match each expert's call with 3 lucky retweeters.… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…— 𝗟𝗜𝗡𝗘𝗦𝗧𝗔𝗥 𝗗𝗙𝗦 & 𝗣𝗥𝗢𝗣𝗦 (@LineStarApp)
7:31 PM • May 2, 2023
Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Jorge Mateo MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Brandon Marsh MORE than 0.5 Total Bases
🆕 Props AI 🆕
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.
Best of luck out there today, everyone!
Represent the LineStar crew by using this as your DFS logo!