Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 5/19 | Tackling Another Huge Friday Slate!

Author

Ryan Humphries
May 19, 2023

Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’re stepping back to the plate with another gigantic Friday MLB slate! A dozen games land on the evening main slate, and it’s sure to be a tough one to crack! There is plenty of talent stepping on the mound today but a strong case can be built for and against just about every starting pitcher on the board. The same can be said about most offenses/stacks as well but there are some potential gas cans out there that certain teams might be able to take advantage of. There won’t be a ton of weather concerns to fret over either so, overall, it’s looking like a fairly clean slate. Let’s solve the puzzle and head into the weekend on a high note! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

CHC @ PHI (7:05 ET): Winds blowing OUT to left at 10 mph.

CLE @ NYM (7:10 ET): Winds OUT to left around 10-15 mph.

KC @ CWS (8:10 ET): Winds OUT to center around 10 mph.

LAD @ STL (8:15 ET): This looks like the one problematic game on the slate. There is a rain system currently passing by north of the ballpark but the part of that system that extends further south looks to move through the area around the scheduled game time. It’s not overly heavy rain, but it is steady. They’ll be waiting for a while if they try to play the game completely dry so the hope would be that they play through the rain. Keep an eye on further updates in STL closer to first pitch.

MIN @ LAA (9:38 ET): Winds OUT to left/center around 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11k | @ LAA

If Joe Ryan isn’t considered an ace by now, he’s gotta be getting damn close. Ryan has faced a fairly tough gauntlet of opponents in 2023 and, through his eight starts and 50.0 IP, he’s come away with a 2.16 ERA, 3.13 xFIP, 0.84 WHIP, and 29.7% kRate, alongside a slate-best 14.3% SwStr% and .231 xwOBA. He does average -32.8% less FPPG on the road, and Ryan’s two lackluster performances from this season have come when pitching on the road (@ BOS and @ CLE); otherwise, he has racked up at least 24.5 DKFP/42 FDFP in all of his remaining six starts. Ryan has also covered at least six full innings in every outing this season.

Joe Ryan will draw an Angels opponent that has been a borderline top-10 offense versus RHPs this season. However, his specific pitch mix may tilt the odds in his favor. Ryan has thrown either a 4-seam fastball or a split-finger on 86.1% of his pitches this season. The Angels rank 24th in wOBA versus that pitch mix (from RHPs) along with an MLB-high 27.4% kRate. It’s easier said than done, but if Ryan can pitch around Trout, Ohtani, and Renfroe, the rest of the Angels lineup is quite manageable and it’s another strong spot for him to cover 6+ innings and flirt with a double-digit strikeout total.

Blake Snell (LHP), SD | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.9k | vs. BOS

You never truly know what you’re getting out of Snell these days and we’re still waiting on him to pop off with a complete performance this season. He has been a bit steadier as of late, earning three consecutive quality starts and he tends to perform better at home in the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park (#2 most pitcher-friendly ballpark). Snell has an above-average 23.5% kRate on the season but his 13.2% SwStr% is a bit more impressive and indicates that his kRate should be closer to around 26%. He’s still struggling with walk issues (13.7% BB%) so that will be one bugaboo we’ll hope disappears tonight.

The Red Sox are not an offense you’d normally want to target with opposing pitchers but they’ve been at their worst offensively when facing LHPs on the road. In 233 PA vs. LHPs on the road this season, Boston has just a .201 AVG (ranks 29th), .285 wOBA (26th), 78 wRC+ (25th), and 24.5% kRate (12th highest). It seems as if the sportsbooks are factoring in Boston’s lack of success in road games versus lefties as well since the Red Sox rank dead last on the slate with a 3.6 implied run total. So while Snell hasn’t given us many reasons to believe he can return a huge DFS score this season, there are plenty of positive indications that tonight might be the game where he finally comes through in a big way.

 

Martin Perez (LHP), TEX | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.4k | vs. COL

Perez hasn’t been in as strong of form as he was in 2022 and he comes into this game off of a pair of ugly road starts against the Angels and A’s. Fortunately, those last two outings have knocked down his DFS salaries and we’ll look for a bounce-back performance out of him now that he’s back at home where he averages +33.6% more FPPG. In 18 home games since the start of 2022, Perez has posted a sharp 2.77 ERA with a 3.83 xFIP, .302 opp wOBA, and 22.5% kRate.

The real draw for Perez, on top of his palatable DFS salaries, will be his match-up with the Colorado Rockies -- who, like the aforementioned Red Sox, is another team that struggles against LHPs when playing on the road away from their very hitter-friendly home ballpark. In 197 PA vs. LHPs on the road, the Rockies are hitting .211 (ranks 28th) with a .270 wOBA (29th), .111 ISO (27th), 66 wRC+ (29th), and 28.4% kRate (3rd highest). The Rangers are also y heavy -240 ML favorites today so we can feel good about Perez notching those win/quality start DFS bonuses, assuming he can get back on track and put his last two outings behind him.

 

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.4k | @ SF

Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.2k | vs. SEA

Anthony DeSclafani (RHP), SF | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.1k | vs. MIA

Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.1k | vs. MIN

Brandon Bielak (RHP), HOU | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7k | vs. OAK

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Texas Rangers vs. Karl Kauffman (RHP), COL

+ Rangers: 5.4 implied runs (T-1st on the slate).

+ COL appears to be in desperation mode calling up Kauffman to make his MLB debut on the road against one of the best offenses in the MLB.

+ In eight starts and 37.0 IP in Triple-A, Kauffman has posted an awful 7.78 ERA, 5.78 xFIP, 1.78 WHIP, .340 opp AVG, and a meager 14.9% kRate.

+ TEX averaging an MLB-best 6.29 runs/gm at home.

+ TEX vs. RHPs at home: .276 AVG, .361 wOBA, .224 ISO, 131 wRC+, and 37.2% HardContact%.

+ TEX has been, by far, the best offense when they have RISP: .332 AVG, .389 wOBA, 149 wRC+.

- Kauffman could have a very short leash in this game and the COL bullpen has posted respectable results when pitching away from Coors Field: 3.79 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, .227 opp AVG.

Favorite TEX Bats: Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia, Nathaniel Lowe | Bargain Bat: Ezequiel Duran

Chicago White Sox vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC

+ White Sox: 4.8 implied runs (T-4th on the slate).

+ Greinke has held his own at home but in 18.2 IP on the road, he has an awful 7.71 ERA, .308 opp AVG, and .405 opp wOBA.

+ Greinke is averaging -72.7% less FPPG on the road.

+ The White Sox are surging a bit as of late -- over the last two weeks they rank 5th in AVG, 5th in OPS, 8th in wOBA, 6th in ISO, and 6th in wRC+.

+ Guaranteed Rate Field in the #5 most hitter-friendly ballpark & 10 mph winds will be blowing out to center tonight.

+ KC has had a bottom-10 bullpen this season.

- The White Sox offense tends to disappear even in good spots and, despite the recent uptick in overall offensive numbers, they have scored three runs or fewer in six of their last eight games.

Favorite CWS Bats: Luis Robert Jr., Yoan Moncada, Jake Burger | Bargain Bat: Andrew Benintendi

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Atlanta Braves vs. Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA

+ Outside of Ronald Acuña Jr. (18% pOwn%), all other ATL bats have a <5% pOwn%.

+ Bryce Miller has been excellent through his first three career MLB starts (0.47 ERA, 0.42 WHIP, 28.1% kRate) but he hasn’t faced an overly difficult level of competition and he struggled in Double-A ball prior to being called up -- in four AA starts this year, Miller put up a 6.41 ERA, 4.81 xFIP, .280 opp AVG, and 2.29 HR/9 Rate.

+ Miller has gotten away with a high 60.0% Fly Ball Rate so far, but ATL ranks 3rd with a 15.9% HR/FB Rate vs. RHPs this season.

-/+ Overall, ATL has been a fairly average offense versus RHPs with a .322 wOBA (ranks 12th) and 99 wRC+ (ranks 16th).

- SEA has one of the best bullpens in the MLB -- the 5th lowest ERA, 2nd lowest xFIP, and 4th lowest WHIP.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Sean Murphy | Bargain Bat: Marcell Ozuna

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA

OF Bryce Harper, PHI | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP), CHC

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Ken Waldichuk (LHP), OAK

2B/OF Mookie Betts, LAD | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Steven Matz (LHP), STL

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), BAL

1B Pete Alonso, NYM | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), CLE

2B Marcus Semien, TEX | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Karl Kauffman (RHP), COL

OF Byron Buxton, MIN | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), NYM

C Salvador Perez, KC | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS

3B Nolan Arenado, STL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Tony Gonsolin (RHP), LAD

3B Yoan Moncada, CWS | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC

OF Anthony Santander, BAL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

2B/OF Christopher Morel, CHC | DK: $4.4k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $4k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC

OF Lane Thomas, WAS | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Matthew Boyd (LHP), DET

3B/SS Kyle Farmer, MIN | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

1B/OF Nick Pratto, KC | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS

3B Jake Burger, CWS | DK: $2.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC

SS Ezequiel Duran, TEX | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Karl Kauffman (RHP), COL

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA

SS Paul DeJong, STL | DK: $2.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Tony Gonsolin (RHP), LAD

OF Kevin Kiermaier, TOR | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), BAL

OF Jake Meyers, HOU | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Ken Waldichik (LHP), OAK

1B/3B Mark Vientos, NYM | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Cal Quiantrill (RHP), CLE

OF Leody Tavares, TEX | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Karl Kauffman (RHP), COL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Lane Thomas MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Joe Ryan MORE than 6.5 Pitcher Strikeouts

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!

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