Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s time to prepare for an intriguing evening of MLB DFS action, where a multitude of even match-ups land on Wednesday’s seven-game main slate schedule. The heaviest favorite stands at -165 ML, indicating a relatively balanced playing field and plenty of opportunities for upsets. This slate is loaded with some strong pitching, top to bottom, so figuring out the correct hitters and stacks will be the biggest hurdle to clear. Let’s see if we can solve today’s puzzle… best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

SEA @ BOS (7:10 ET): Cooler temps in the 50s with fairly strong crosswinds blowing left to right at 10-15 mph.

TB @ NYM (7:10 ET): Winds blowing IN from left at 10-15 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL | DK: $12k, FD: $11.5k | @ TEX

You’ll never find me complaining when “Striday” rolls around. Spencer Strider’s strikeout prowess is well-known at this point, and the second-year pro is leading all MLB starters with an electric 42.9% kRate… and it isn’t particularly close -- Kevin Gausman ranks 2nd behind Strider with a 34.7% kRate. Strider also owns a stout 2.51 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and a slate-best 2.47 xFIP while holding opponents to a .169 AVG and .232 wOBA. Strider has secured double-digit strikeouts in three of his last four starts and has at least 9 Ks in seven of eight outings this season.

Strider faces a talented Rangers offense on the road today but some factors should play into his favor. Strider heavily relied on his blazing four-seam fastball, throwing that pitch on 60.8% of his throws. The Rangers have ranked 21st in wOBA against 4-seam fastballs from RHPs, and their 26.7% kRate on those pitches is the second-highest in the MLB. While the offenses on both sides of this match-up have plenty of big bats in their respective lineup, this game sets up as a certified pitcher’s duel between Strider and Rangers’ RHP Nathan Eovaldi, while owning a slate-low 7.5-run over/under. Strider and the Braves step in as the moderate favorites with -150 ML odds. He’s pricey and sure to be a chalky option today, but Strider simply has the most upside among a talented set of starting pitchers on this slate.

JP France (RHP), HOU | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.3k | vs. CHC

France has been sharp across his first two career MLB starts and he’ll now prepare for his home debut in Houston. Across his 11.2 IP against the Mariners and White Sox, France surrendered a single run (0.77 ERA) and has allowed eight total base runners (0.69 WHIP). The strikeouts have not been plentiful for France, at least not yet. His 8 Ks in his two outings represent a below-average 18.2% kRate. However, there is reason to believe more strikeouts could be on the way for France as he continues to adjust to the MLB level. In 19.1 IP in Triple-A this year, France owned an impressive 33.8% kRate and 12.1 K/9. He also posted at least a 28.3% kRate and 11.06 K/9 at every level of his minor league progression outside of a stint in high-A ball in 2019.

France takes on a Chicago Cubs offense that has not been overly dangerous against RHPs in recent weeks. Based on their performance against RHPs over the last 14 days (376 PA), the Cubs rank 22nd in wOBA, 25th in ISO, 23rd in wRC+, and their 26.9% kRate in that stretch has been the second-highest in the MLB. France and the Astros (-165 ML) are the heaviest favorites on today’s main slate -- after reaching 94 pitches and covering 6.2 innings in his last start, we have to feel good about France’s chances of earning those win/quality start DFS bonuses as well.

Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS | DK: $5.7k, FD: $8.5k | vs. SEA

Bello is set to make only his 17th career MLB start tonight. Bello finished strong toward the end of last season and he’s found a nice groove in his most recent outings this year. It’s a small sample size, but over his last three starts (16.0 IP), Bello has posted a strong 2.81 ERA, 3.15 xFIP, 1.31 WHIP, and 24.2% kRate. Two of those starts came against the Blue Jays and Braves so it’s not as if he was mowing down bottom feeders.

The Mariners have hovered around the middle of the pack offensively against RHPs this season. Their .308 wOBA and 99 wRC+ rank them 20th and 17th, respectively, and their 25.0% kRate is the third-highest in the MLB. Fenway Park can be a hitter’s paradise but, at least for Bello’s sake, some cooler temperatures tonight in Boston should hopefully make fly balls more difficult to send out of the park. Bello is a reasonable option on FanDuel at $8,500 but he makes the most sense as a DraftKings SP2 option given his slate-low $5,700 salary.

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.8k | vs. ATL

Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9.5k | vs. NYY

Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL | DK: $7.4k, FD: N/A | vs. MIL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Chicago White Sox vs. Peyton Battenfield (RHP), CLE

+ White Sox: 4.9 implied runs (ranks 2nd on the slate).

+ On a slate with a ton of difficult pitching match-ups, the White Sox offer decent upside and many of their bats check in with low salaries.

+ Battenfield is an inexperienced MLB starter who has just 30.1 IP to his name.

+ Battenfield has an unimpressive 4.45 ERA and 4.58 xFIP.

+ Battenfield has allowed a slate-worst 93.9 mph average exit velo and 9.7% Barrel% alongside a high 50.0% HardHit%.

+ The 4-seam fastball and the cutter have accounted for 85.1% of Battenfield’s pitches -- against those two pitch types from RHPs, CWS ranks 7th with a .365 wOBA and 9th with a .207 ISO.

+ Guaranteed Rate Field is the #5 most hitter-friendly ballpark.

- CLE has had an above-average bullpen this season.

- Overall, CWS has been a bottom-10 offense vs. RHPs this season.

Favorite CWS Bats: Luis Robert Jr., Jake Burger, Yoan Moncada | Bargain Bat: Andrew Benintendi

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM

+ The Rays have simply been unreal this season and if they were able to get to Justin Verlander yesterday (5.0 IP, 8 H, 2 BB, 6 ER), then they should be able to find some success against Senga as well.

+ Senga’s numbers from his last five starts do not instill much fear for opposing hitters: 26.0 IP, 5.26 ERA, 4.46 xFIP, 1.71 WHIP, .361 opp wOBA, and 1.80 HR/9 Rate.

+ TB leads the MLB in nearly every major offensive category versus RHPs, ranking 1st in OBP, OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+.

+ TB is tied for 4th with 40 stolen bases this season.

+ NYM bullpen has seen a ton of wear and tear recently and their 5.07 xFIP over the last two weeks has been the 6th worst mark in the MLB.

- Citi Field is the least hitter-friendly ballpark, and some 10-15 mph winds blowing in from left will make hitting home runs a tougher challenge.

- Senga has been very solid in his three home starts, posting a 1.59 ERA and .167 opp AVG -- though, those three starts came against the Marlins, Nationals, and Rockies.

- TB: 3.9 implied runs (3rd lowest on the slate).

Favorite TB Bats: Randy Arozarena, Wander Franco, Josh Lowe | Bargain Bat: Isaac Paredes

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL

+ Burnes has a lackluster 4.44 xFIP this season and averages -26.8% less FPPG on the road.

+ STL has been white hot against RHPs over the last two weeks, leading the MLB with a .918 OPS, .390 wOBA, .259 ISO, and 150 wRC+.

+ The MIL bullpen has been below-average on the season and particularly awful in the last two weeks: 6.02 ERA, 4.83 xFIP, 1.48 WHIP, 2.37 HR/9 Rate.

+ Stacking a potential high-owned Burns (28% pOwn% - DraftKings) makes for a strong leverage play.

+ All STL bats have a <10% pOwn%.

-/+ Despite Busch Stadium being the #4 least hitter-friendly ballpark, STL is averaging 5.57 runs/gm at home this season.

- Burnes has held down a stingy 2.22 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over his last five starts.

- In 178 PA vs. Burnes, STL is hitting just .218 with a .274 wOBA and 30.3% kRate.

Favorite STL Bats: Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong | Bargain Bat: Lars Nootbaar

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), CHC

SS Bo Bichette, TOR | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY

OF Masataka Yoshida, BOS | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

OF Josh Lowe, TB | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM

3B Nolan Arenado, STL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL

3B Yoan Moncada, CWS | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Peyton Battenfield (RHP), CLE

OF Steven Kwan, CLE | DK: $4.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Mike Clevinger (RHP), CWS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Harold Ramirez, TB | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Peyton Battenfield (RHP), CLE

3B Isaac Paredes, TB | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM

OF Andrew Benintendi, CWS | DK: $3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Peyton Battenfield (RHP), CLE

3B Jake Burger, CWS | DK: $2.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Peyton Battenfield (RHP), CLE

OF Rob Refsnyder, BOS | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

SS Paul DeJong, STL | DK: $2.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL

OF Kevin Kiermaier, TOR | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY

1B/3B Mark Vientos, NYM | DK: $2k, FD: N/A | vs. Josh Fleming (LHP), TB

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Kevin Kiermaier MORE than 0.5 Total Bases

Luis Robert Jr. MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!