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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Following a couple of sizable slates to begin the week, we’ll shrink down to a mid-sized seven-game main slate on Wednesday. There is an early slate that will be well underway by the time you’re reading this so if you dabbled in that one, I hope you’re on your way to a nice afternoon profit! From a slate overview, I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a low-ish scoring day. Pitching is fairly solid, top-to-bottom, and you can make some sort of case for nearly every SP being “rosterable.” But some big sluggers and several offenses will surely be able to make some noise when it’s all said and done. Let’s get into it! Best of luck!

Quick note: Today’s MLB newsletter will be a bit condensed as I have quite a bit of work to get done on the PGA newsletter. For anyone unaware, this week is the PGA Championship (the second of four Major tournaments in the 2024 season) and there are some massive DFS contests available for the taking, including a DK Milly Maker! If you’re looking to test the waters in a new DFS sport and never tried PGA, this is a great week to give it a shot. The PGA newsletter will be available a few hours after MLB goes out!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• TB @ BOS (7:10 ET): Some off-and-on rain is around the BOS area this afternoon and into the evening. Good chance that most of this game is played dry but, at some point, they may have to play through a bit of light/moderate rain. 60 degrees with light winds blowing IN from right.

• CHC @ ATL (7:20 ET): More scattered storms here but the coverage is lower than in Boston. We’ll keep this as a “chance for delay” in case one of those storm cells makes its way over the ballpark. Nice hitting conditions with mid-70s temps and 10+ mph winds blowing OUT to left.

• NYY @ MIN (7:40 ET): This is the game we’ll need to be most wary of. There is a bit of rain around first pitch, then a roughly 2-hour dry window, and then some heavy stuff arrives late. The hope here would be that they can start on time and finish up the game before the heavier rains arrive. For now, it seems more likely that they’ll be able to play rather than postpone, but run a pre-game forecast check before locking any NYY/MIN players into your lineups. Winds will also be blowing IN from center/right around 10 mph.

• STL @ LAA (9:38 ET): Winds OUT to center at 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL | DK: $8.4k, FD: $10.7k | vs. CHC

Old man Morton still has some gas left in the tank and he heads into his eighth 2024 start with some rock-solid overall numbers -- 3.14 ERA, 3.66 xFIP, 1.05 WHIP, and 23.8% kRate. His fastball still sits mid-90s and his curveball remains one of the best among MLB right-handers. He’ll look to take on a Cubs offense that has been sputtering lately and has been shut out in the first two games of this series against Atlanta. Against RHPs L2Weeks, Chicago is hitting just .213 with a middling 98 wRC+ and higher-than-average 23.7% kRate. Morton utilizes his curveball more than any other pitch, throwing it on 41.1% of his pitches this season. While the Cubs do have a .273 AVG against RHP curveballs (3rd highest in MLB), they haven’t generated much power against that pitch with a .106 ISO, and, most importantly, they have produced a massive 37.1% kRate against righty curves. The range of outcomes is pretty wide for Morton, but he does tend to pitch better at home and, thanks to his curveball-heavy usage, he brings plenty of strikeout upside against this Cubs lineup. The Braves are also heavy -200 ML favorites today. I’d expect the Cubs to put up a handful of hits and a couple of runs on Morton, but I believe he’ll also emerge with a quality start (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) with 6-to-8 strikeouts along the way.

Taj Bradley (RHP), TB | DK: $8k, FD: $10.3k | @ BOS

Bradley had an injury setback in spring training where he suffered a pectoral strain, which delayed his 2024 season. After making a couple of very impressive rehab starts in Triple-A (11.0 IP, 0.82 ERA, 0.45 WHIP, 39.5% kRate), the Rays promoted him back up to the big club last week. He was tasked with taking on a tough Yankees lineup in his first 2024 MLB start and he performed with flying colors. Bradley covered six full innings on 93 pitches, allowed one run on four hits and two walks, and struck out seven. He still got pinned with the loss as the Rays went on to lose 0-2, but Bradley’s performance was still good enough to earn 21.9 DKFP/40 FDFP.

He’ll get an easier match-up today against a struggling Red Sox lineup. While I prefer to attack Boston with lefty starters, they haven’t had much success brewing against RHPs lately either. Over the last two weeks against RHPs (292 PA), Boston is hitting for a .201 AVG, .267 wOBA, 66 wRC+, and 25.3% kRate. It’s hard to trust a one-game sample size but Bradley did flash some nice upside at times last season across his 21 starts (104.2 IP). While his 5.59 ERA wasn’t pretty in 2023, that was backed up by a much stronger 3.83 xFIP and he came away with a stout 28.0% kRate as well.

Jon Gray (RHP), TEX | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.7k | vs. CLE

Gray has been on a nice roll heading into his ninth start and, since April 11th, he has procured at least 20.1 DKFP/39 FDFP in five of six starts. In that same span, which stretches across 38.1 IP, Gray has come away with an outstanding 1.64 ERA, 2.78 xFIP, 0.97 WHIP, and 28.9% kRate. His 13.4% SwStr% ranks second among today’s starters, behind Pablo Lopez (14.2% SwStr%).

I’ve been on the Cleveland stack for the last couple of days, and they’ve responded by scoring seven runs in each game, but they may have more issues against Gray given the level he’s been pitching at. Cleveland continues to be a tough offense to strikeout (17.2% kRate vs. RHPs L2Weeks, second-lowest) but they’re also rocking a lackluster .209 AVG, .290 wOBA, and 89 wRC+ against RHPs L2Weeks. The Rangers will be sizable -175 ML favorites tonight and Gray’s presence on the mound is a large reason why they’re so heavily favored, given how much this Rangers offense has struggled lately.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS | DK: $9.1k, FD: $11k | vs. TB

Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.2k | vs. OAK

Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.5k | vs. STL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Houston Astros vs. Aaron Brooks (RHP), OAK

Due to a number of injuries to their starting rotation, the A’s will be handing the ball to 34-year-old journeyman RHP Aaron Brooks, who will be making his first MLB appearance since 2022, and his first start since 2019. Brooks has posted very underwhelming numbers across his 180.0 IP at the MLB level: 6.55 ERA, 5.11 xFIP, 1.50 WHIP, 1.70 HR/9 Rate, and 16.1% kRate. He has struggled to a 4.57 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and a 1-6 record across eight Triple-A starts this season as well. After a great start to the season, the A’s bullpen has also seen some regression lately as well, with a 5.53 ERA, .272 opp AVG, and 1.56 WHIP L2Weeks. The Astros offense hasn’t been super dependable this season but they’ll land in a very advantageous spot versus a low-quality starter and a declining A’s bullpen this evening. Houston has also been more productive at home, where they’re averaging 4.86 runs/gm this season, versus 4.14 runs/gm on the road.

Favorite HOU Bats: Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman

Bargain Bat: Mauricio Dubon

Atlanta Braves vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

This Braves offense has been stuck in neutral for a few weeks but they finally scored more than five runs in a game yesterday for the first time since April 26th. Some previously struggling bats, like Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, and Jared Kelenic, are beginning to show signs of life again so we’ll see if they’ll continue to bust out of the slump tonight. Javier Assad comes into his ninth 2024 start with a tremendous 1.70 ERA, but his 4.23 xFIP suggests some significant regression is due. Over the last month, Assad has allowed a 90.4 mph average exit velo and, on the season, his flyball rate is on the higher side at 42.4%. We’ll see some quality hitting conditions in this game with mid-70s temps and 10+ mph winds blowing out to left. Any well-struck flyball will catch some added carry distance at Truist Park tonight and it’s only a matter of time before this talented Braves offense goes on a serious run.

Favorite ATL Bats: Marcell Ozuna, Matt Olson, Michael Harris II

Bargain Bat: Jarred Kelenic and/or Zack Short

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Oakland Athletics vs. Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU

Every hitter in the A’s projected lineup has a < 7% pOwn% as they take on the lefty groundball connoisseur Framber Valdez. The numbers on Valdez are decent through his five starts this season, but far from spectacular. He has also faced a fairly easy schedule of opponents -- specifically over his last four starts (Tigers, Mariners, Rockies, and Blue Jays). The A’s have been one of the MLB’s hottest offenses in recent weeks and their 130 wRC+ L2Weeks leads the MLB. The Astros have deployed a fairly middling bullpen this season and any sort of A’s stack should provide some nice leverage against Valdez, who projects to be one of the highest-owned pitchers on this slate.

Favorite OAK Bats: Brent Rooker, Abraham Toro, Shea Langeliers

Bargain Bat: JD Davis

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.8k | vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

OF Kyle Tucker, HOU | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.3k | vs.Aaron Brooks (RHP), OAK

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN

OF Tyler O’Neill, BOS | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Taj Bradley (RHP), TB

OF Adolis Garcia, TEX | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), CLE

1B Josh Naylor, CLE | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4k | vs. Javier Assaad (RHP), CHC

OF Cody Bellinger, CHC | DK: $5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

C Ryan Jeffers, MIN | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP), NYY

3B Nolan Arenado, STL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU

C Logan O’Hoppe, LAA | DK: $4.2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), STL

OF Josh Lowe, TB | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

3B Josh Smith, TEX | DK: $4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), CLE

1B Paul Goldschmidt, STL | DK: $4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

1B Yandy Diaz, TB | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

2B Abraham Toro, OAK | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU

OF Kevin Pillar, LAA | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), STL

C Connor Wong, BOS | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Taj Bradley (RHP), TB

C Ivan Herrera, STL | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

OF Willie Calhoun, LAA | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k| vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), STL

OF Mauricio Dubon, HOU | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Aaron Brooks (RHP), OAK

OF/SS Ceddanne Rafaela, BOS | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Taj Bradley (RHP), TB

OF Michael Siani, STL | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

3B Zack Short, ATL | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Jon Gray MORE than 29.5 Pitcher Fantasy Score

Kyle Tucker MORE than 8.0 Hitter Fantasy Score

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!