Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

• Check out LineStar's free 2023 MLB DFS Strategy Guide 

• Sign-up for PrizePicks using Promo Code "BETFULLY" to get 2-months free of LineStar Premium.

• Rate LineStarApp on the App store and get a shoutout on Twitter from @LineStarApp official account!

OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

Like, Subscribe, and Comment @ LineStar YouTube channel! You never know when we’ll shout you out or give you something cool. New episodes drop Mon-Fri feat. hosts Shannon Sommerville & Tyler Wiemann! Every episode is quick, informative, & easy to watch.

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Happy belated Mother’s Day to any of the moms out there reading this (there have to be a few, right?). A new week of MLB action commences, and we’re facing a hefty 10-game slate on tap for this evening! We’ve got plenty of great options today, from strong pitching to enticing stacks to worthy value bats. Perhaps the one thing this slate is lacking is a selection of quality value pitching options but we'll just have to work around that. There will be minimal weather concerns as well, so we should have a mostly clean set of games ahead tonight! Time to lock and load! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

SEA @ BOS (7:10 ET): Winds blowing OUT to right/center at 10-15 mph.

MIL @ STL (7:45 ET): Light 5-10 mph winds blowing IN from center.

CIN @ COL (8:40 ET): Some low-coverage rainstorms could spark a delay of some sort if one finds its way over the ballpark, but they should have no problems getting a full nine innings in.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $10.7k, FD: $10.7k | vs. CHC

Valdez has been one of the more steady starting pitchers in the entire MLB, and he has notched seven consecutive quality starts heading into tonight. Valdez has covered at least seven full innings in five of those quality starts, and he pitched an absolute gem in his last outing (@ LAA) that featured eight innings of one-run baseball paired with 12 Ks, three hits, and no walks on 99 pitches (42.4 DKFP/67 FDFP). He brings a sharp 2.38 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 27.1% kRate into tonight’s match-up alongside a slate-best 2.60 xFIP. Valdez is one of the premier ground ball pitchers in the league, forcing a 62.6% GB% next to just an 18.7% Fly Ball Rate thus far in 2023. A strong kRate combined with such a high ground ball rate is always an elite combination.

Valdez draws a home match-up with a Cubs offense that has been strong against lefty pitching this season. Versus LHPs, the Cubs rank 5th in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. However, they’ve cooled off in recent weeks while putting up much more pedestrian numbers. In the last 14 days versus LHPs, Chicago has a .727 OPS (ranks 19th), .316 wOBA (20th), 99 wRC+ (19th), and a 24.8% kRate (6th highest). Maybe it’s not a perfect match-up, but it’s certainly a strong spot for Valdez to continue rolling. The Astros also step in as hefty -195 ML favorites so, in all likelihood, Valdez should be able to snag those win/quality start bonuses this evening.

Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.7k | @ OAK

Kelly rolls in with some nice momentum tonight and makes for an appealing “tier two” DFS option at starting pitcher. Over his last six starts, Kelly has posted a rock-solid 3.50 ERA, 3.63 xFIP, 0.97 WHIP, .187 opp AVG, and 27.5% kRate while averaging 6.0 IP per game.

Personally speaking, I haven’t been “auto-locking” any decent pitcher facing the A’s this season. Sure, they have an MLB-worst 9-33 record, but their awful pitching has been mostly to blame for that abysmal record rather than their offense, which can be quite pesky at times. Against RHPs, the A’s have been much closer to a league-average offense rather than a bottom-of-the-barrel team, and, based on wOBA and wRC+, they’ve outperformed teams like the Padres and Astros this season. However, they do still own an MLB-high 25.7% kRate vs. RHPs and rank 27th with a 28.0% HardContact%. They’re also averaging just 3.09 runs/gm at home in the Oakland Coliseum -- the #6 most pitcher-friendly ballpark. Since many folks see the A’s on the slate and just default to rostering whoever is pitching against them, Merrill Kelly will not be a sneaky option by any means. But if you aren’t worried about the high ownership, specifically on DraftKings (42% pOwn%), then Kelly should work out just fine tonight.

Michael Wacha (RHP), SD | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.2k | vs. KC

The bottom tier for starting pitchers today is a disaster. Along with some downright bad or under-performing starting pitchers, there are multiple “opener + long reliever” situations and a couple of other guys coming off of injuries who are likely to face pitch count restrictions. So, not sure about you guys, but it looks like Michael Wacha is about as cheap as I’d feel going at SP today (based on DK pricing). Wacha has been far from consistent this season but he popped off for a 10-strikeout performance against the Braves on April 8th and he has averaged 18.2 DKFP/34 FDFP over his last two starts (vs. CIN, @ MIN) heading into tonight. Nothing is pretty about Wacha’s 4.82 ERA, 5.06 xFIP, 1.34 WHIP, and 18.6% kRate. Although, he has excelled in limiting opposing batters’ exit velocity and hard hits -- Wacha’s 86.2 mph average exit velo and 28.8% HardHit% lead all traditional starters on this slate.

This match-up against the Royals is not as strong as it was at the very beginning of the season. Due to Kansas City’s awful start offensively in 2023, they still rank bottom-10 against RHPs in all major offensive metrics. However, over the last two weeks against RHPs, they rank 3rd in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ along with a fairly low 20.7% kRate. The good news, for Wacha at least, is that they haven’t been nearly as stout when playing on the road and Petco Park represents the #2 most pitcher-friendly environment. The Padres (-230 ML) are the heaviest favorites on this slate so, hopefully, a win/quality start DFS bonus will be enough to push him past that 20 DKFP/35 FDFP threshold that we hope for out of SPs in this general price range.

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.4k | @ LAD

Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL | DK: $9k, FD: $10.9k | @ STL

Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.8k | @ COL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Cincinnati Reds vs. Connor Seabold (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

Non-Coors Stacks

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Drew Rucinski (RHP), OAK

+ D-Backs: 5.1 implied runs (ranks T-4th among non-Coors teams).

+ Rucinski has been awful in his three starts this season: 8.16 ERA, 6.65 xFIP, 2.09 WHIP, and .419 opp wOBA.

+ ARI has been a top-10 offense vs. RHPs this season.

+ ARI has been even better against RHPs in the last two weeks (317 PA): .292 AVG (ranks 1st), .862 OPS (1st), .374 wOBA (1st), .192 ISO (5th), and 134 wRC+ (2nd).

+ Getting exposure to OAK’s dreadful bullpen is always a significant plus for any opposing offense -- OAK bullpen this season: 7.01 ERA, 5.91 xFIP, 1.72 WHIP, 1.48 HR/9, 17.2% kRate.

- Oakland Coliseum: #6 least hitter-friendly ballpark.

- ARI could be the highest-owned non-Coors stack today.

Favorite ARI Bats: Corbin Carroll, Christian Walker, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | Bargain Bat: Dominic Fletcher

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP), STL

+ Flaherty is off to a rocky start this season: 6.18 ERA, 5.05 xFIP, 1.73 WHIP, .389 opp wOBA, and 15.3% Walk Rate.

+ 66.1% of Flaherty’s pitches have been either 4-seamers or sliders -- MIL ranks 4th with a .358 wOBA versus those pitch types from RHPs this season.

+ Flaherty’s 17.3% HR/FB Rate is the second-highest among today’s starting pitchers.

+ MIL has been a borderline top-10 offense vs. RHPs in the L2Wks, ranking 11th in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+.

-/+ Busch Stadium is the #4 most pitcher-friendly ballpark. However, Flaherty is averaging -23.9% less FPPG at home.

-/+ MIL: 4.3 implied runs (ranks T-10th among non-Coors teams).

- STL has had a top-10 bullpen this season.

- MIL averaging 4.21 runs/gm on the road (9th lowest).

Favorite MIL Bats: Christian Yelich, Rowdy Tellez, Brice Turang | Bargain Bat: Jesse Winker

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Texas Rangers vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

+ Morton averages -60.4% less FPPG on the road -- in 22.2 IP on the road this season, he owns a lackluster 1.59 WHIP, .286 opp AVG, 5.14 xFIP, and 16.5% kRate.

+ TEX has averaged an MLB-best 6.67 runs/gm at home.

+ TEX vs. RHPs rank 6th in OPS, wOBA, ISO, and 5th in AVG and wRC+ -- as you might expect, all of those rankings increase when they’ve faced RHPs at home.

+ Besides Marcus Semien (10% pOwn%), all other TEX bats have a <5% pOwn%.

+ Globe Life Field has ranked as the #6 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

- ATL has a top-10 bullpen, though it has been closer to “average” in recent weeks and they pitched a bullpen game yesterday.

- Rangers: 4.1 implied runs (ranks 6th lowest on the slate).

- Overall, Morton has been solid this season, pitching to a 3.32 ERA, 4.34 xFIP, and 1.40 WHIP while inducing a high 50.4% GB% so any TEX stack would rely on his below-average road splits to kick in.

Favorite TEX Bats: Marcus Semien, Nathaniel Lowe, Adolis Garcia | Bargain Bat: Robbie Grossman

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Cody Bradford (LHP), TEX

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $6k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

OF Bryce Harper, PHI | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Alex Wood (LHP), SF

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.8k | vs. PLR Jhony Brito (RHP), NYY

2B Marcus Semien, TEX | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

2B/SS Thairo Estrada, SF | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. PLR Bailey Falter (LHP), PHI

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

OF Juan Soto, SD | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Brad Keller (RHP), KC

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Drew Rucinski (RHP), OAK

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN

OF Christian Yelich, MIL | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP), STL

C Salvador Perez, KC | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), SD

OF Jarred Kelenic, SEA | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

1B Anthony Rizzo, NYY | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Alek Manoah (RHP), TOR

3B Ryan McMahon, COL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

SS Carlos Correa, MIN | DK: $4.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Noah Syndergaard (RHP), LAD

OF Jake Fraley, CIN | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Connor Seabold (RHP), COL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., ARI | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Drew Rucinski (RHP), OAK

1B Spencer Steer, CIN | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Connor Seabold (RHP), COL

1B LaMonte Wade Jr., SF | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.1k | vs. PLR Bailey Falter (LHP), PHI

SS Casey Schmidt, SF | DK: $3k, FD: $3.4k | vs. PLR Bailey Falter (LHP), PHI

1B/OF Alex Kirilloff, MIN | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Noah Syndergaard (RHP), LAD

OF Robbie Grossman, TEX | DK: $2.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Cody Bradford (LHP), TEX

OF Dominic Fletcher, ARI | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Drew Rucinski (RHP), OAK

SS Matt McLain, CIN | DK: $2k, FD: N/A | vs. Connor Seabold (RHP), COL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Anthony Rizzo MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Christian Yelich MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!