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Top DFS Offers 5/14/23 💸

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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s always a busy day in baseball when Tuesday rolls around and we’ll be facing down an 11-game slate this evening. Keep in mind that on DraftKings, it shows a 12-game slate but the players from the WAS @ CWS game will not accrue fantasy points since it is the second game of a doubleheader. It’s a loaded slate so let’s cut right to the chase and dive in! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• TB @ BOS (7:10 ET): Winds OUT to left at 10+ mph.

• CHC @ ATL (7:20 ET): Some spotty storms are expected around the ATL area this evening. With a little luck, they could play this one dry and with no issues. However, if one of those storms hits the ballpark, a delay becomes very likely. Either way, they should get nine innings in one way or the other, so hitters are safe (at the moment) but starting pitchers will have some added risk in the event of storms sparking an early-game delay. We’ll need to run a pre-game forecast check here.

• NYY @ MIN (7:40 ET): 5-10 mph winds IN from center.

• STL @ LAA (9:38 ET): 10 mph winds OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Sonny Gray (RHP), STL | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.8k | @ LAA

We’ve got a few high-end arms to choose from on this slate and, by my guess, RHP Dylan Cease (DK: $11k, FD: $11k) will be the most popular option as he lands in a smash spot against the road Rockies. Sonny Gray is priced just below him, but I’m guessing his lackluster previous outing (5.0 IP, 7 H, 1 BB, 6 ER, 6 K) against the Brewers could scare some folks off of him tonight… especially when they can just pay a little bit more to get up to Cease.

By all means, Gray is still putting forth an outstanding 2024 campaign. He got a late jump after beginning the season on the IL, but across his six outings, he has produced a 2.29 ERA, 2.50 xFIP, 0.96 WHIP, and 31.9% kRate while limiting hitters to a 29.8% HardHit% (ranks 7th among all MLB starters).

Gray will face off with a scrappy, but still below-average, Angels offense that is once again without the services of Mike Trout for a long-term duration. Since April 30th (first game w/o Trout) vs. RHPs, the Angels are batting just .220 (ranks 22nd) with a .283 wOBA (24th) and 80 wRC+ (24th). Their 24.0% kRate vs. RHPs this season is also the 9th highest mark in baseball. Sonny Gray has an extensive pitch repertoire and he has five pitch types (four-seamer, curveball, cutter, sinker, and sweeper) that he has thrown on at least 15% of his throws. The two pitches that Gray has generated the highest Whiff% with are the sweeper (52.6% Whiff%) and curveball (35.1% Whiff%). It would serve Gray well to lean on those two pitches tonight as the Angels are hitting just .214 against RHP sweepers and curveballs while racking up a huge 33.8% kRate. Based on park factor, Angel Stadium has ranked as the #1 hitter’s park this season, but this game is being pinned with a slate-low 7.0 over/under. The Angels also possess a meager 3.1 implied run total tonight (T-2nd lowest on the slate). So we can anticipate the veteran Gray to shake off the poor outing from last Thursday and bounce back in a big way tonight.

Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.2k | vs. KC

Gilbert will be another talented pitcher, and we’ll look to get a bounce-back performance out of this evening. He allowed 8 ER on nine hits and two walks across 4.0 IP @ MIN last Thursday. However, across his first seven starts of the season, Gilbert was rocking a 1.69 ERA, 3.31 xFIP, .152 opp AVG, 0.79 WHIP, and 28.2% kRate. After making three of his last four starts on the road, he’ll be back in the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park (#2 most pitcher-friendly ballpark this season). Gilbert’s kRate has jumped to 31.5% in three home starts this season to go along with a minuscule 0.70 WHIP.

The Royals are averaging nearly a run less per game on the road (4.05 runs/gm) compared to at home (5.00 runs/gm) this season. Against RHPs on the road, the Royals are hitting for a meager .202 AVG with a .270 wOBA and 72 wRC+ -- only the White Sox rate out worse in each category. The Royals do not strike out a ton, but their kRate vs. RHPs has also jumped from 16.3% at home to 21.1% on the road. So, to wrap it up succinctly, T-Mobile Park is a fantastic pitcher’s ballpark, Gilbert has been more productive at home, and the Royals have really struggled against RHPs on the road. While he’s not cheap, if you want to save a bit of salary by dropping down from guys like Dylan Cease or Sonny Gray, then Logan Gilbert is in a position to offer comparable upside.

Joe Ross (RHP), MIL | DK: $5.2k, FD: $7k | vs. PIT

There is a steep drop-off in talent once you get past the four or five most expensive pitchers on this slate, and the bottom-of-the-barrel pitchers are clearly going to carry some level of risk. That said, Joe Ross is an appealing value arm, specifically as a cheap SP2 on DraftKings that can be paired with a top SP1 like Dylan Cease. Through seven starts, Ross has procured some unimpressive but not horrible results: 4.75 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and 17.9% kRate. However, looking at his underlying stats, like his 4.14 xERA and 11.9% SwStr%, we’ll see that he could be due for some positive regression. As a general rule of thumb, you can typically double a pitcher’s SwStr% to find about where their overall kRate should be -- so Ross should begin to inch closer to more of a ~24% kRate if he maintains his near-12% SwStr%.

The match-up is also a major reason why Ross will stand out as a viable DFS option. While Oneil Cruz is on a serious heater and Bryan Reynolds is coming off of a huge game last night, the majority of this lineup just isn’t doing much damage consistently against RHPs. Over the last two weeks against RHPs (303 PA), the Pirates are hitting .194 (ranks 29th), with a .591 OPS (29th), .264 wOBA (29th), 67 wRC+ (29th), and 26.1% kRate (2nd highest). Ross has also shown some positive reverse splits, holding LHBs to a .243 AVG, .274 wOBA, and .081 ISO, so if the Pirates deploy five or six lefty bats, it won’t be a major strike against Ross. Ross also faced this Pirates team earlier this season back on April 22nd -- he didn’t put up a huge fantasy score (13.8 DKFP/25 FDFP), but he did hold the Pirates to just one earned run across his 5.1 IP. The Brewers step in as solid -158 ML favorites this evening and, while I don’t expect Ross to pitch a super clean game, if he can work through five or six innings while racking up a handful of strikeouts and exit the game in a position to earn the win, then he should work out perfectly fine in lineups tonight.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Dylan Cease (RHP), SD | DK: $11k, FD: $11k | vs. COL

Chris Sale (LHP), ATL | DK: $10k, FD: $10.4k | vs. CHC (Monitor weather)

Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY | DK: $8k, FD: $9.1k | @ MIN

Gavin Stone (RHP), LAD | DK: $7.9k, FD: $7.9k | @ SF

Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.7k | @ ATL (Monitor weather)

Michael Wacha (RHP), KC | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.6k | @ SEA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Quinn Priester (RHP), PIT

+ Brewers: 4.7 implied runs (ranks T-4th on the slate).

+ The Brewers have been a top-three offense vs. RHPs in most key offensive metrics: .264 AVG (2nd), .771 OPS (3rd), .341 wOBA (3rd), .167 ISO (6th), and 120 wRC+ (3rd).

+ Priester has managed a serviceable 3.86 ERA through his four starts but he’s due for some sizable regression based on his 5.65 xERA and 4.50 xFIP.

+ Priester has surrendered a sizable 51.9% HardHit% and, while he hasn’t allowed many fly balls (26.7% FlyBall Rate), he has allowed a huge 30.0% HR/FB Rate -- so, when hitters get under one of his pitches, it has a great chance to leave the ballpark.

+ The Brewers have been the #4 home offense, averaging 5.05 runs/gm.

+ The Pirates bullpen has struggled over the last two weeks: 5.73 ERA, 4.63 xFIP, and 1.57 WHIP.

+ American Family Field has ranked as the #6 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

- Priester has held RHBs in check: .231 AVG, 1.00 WHIP, and 2.78 xFIP.

Favorite MIL Bats: Christian Yelich, Jake Bauers, William Contreras

Bargain Bat: Joey Ortiz

Cleveland Guardians vs. Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX

+ Leiter is the #2 pitching prospect (via MLB.com) in the Rangers’ system, but he has been lit up in his first two MLB starts (@ DET, @ OAK) -- small sample size, but across his 7.2 IP, he has come away with a 12.91 ERA, 7.64 xERA, 2.35 WHIP and he’s allowing a massive 62.5% HardHit%, 94.0 mph average exit velo, and 18.8% Barrel%.

+ The Guardians have not hit RHPs consistently well, but they do own a 104 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks when playing on the road (ranks 8th) and they’re generally a tough team to strike out, which bodes well against Leiter, who relies heavily on getting Ks.

+ The Rangers bullpen was responsible for allowing all seven of the Guardians' runs yesterday and has been getting shelled L2Weeks: 8.92 ERA, 5.44 xFIP, and 2.03 WHIP.

- Leiter’s 5.34 xFIP isn’t great, but it’s still less than half of his ERA so he has been unlucky to an extent across his first two big league outings.

- Cleveland’s 96 wRC+ vs. RHPs on the season ranks 20th in MLB.

Favorite CLE Bats: Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Andres Gimenez

Bargain Bat: Tyler Freeman

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Cincinnati Reds vs. Slade Cecconi (RHP), ARI

+ 8-of-9 hitters in the projected Reds lineup have a ≤ 10% pOwn%.

+ Cecconi has pitched pretty well through four starts but his 4.15 ERA is backed up by a worse 4.84 xFIP, suggesting incoming regression, and he allows a ton of fly balls (57.9% FlyBall%).

+ The Reds rank 7th with a 12.7% HR/FB Rate vs. RHPs this season.

+ Cecconi just pitched against this Reds lineup five days ago. While he held them to one run across his 5.1 IP, the advantage often goes to the offense when they see the same starter twice within the span of a week.

+ Despite having a very hitter-friendly ballpark, the Reds have been a bit better on the road (4.42 runs/gm) than at home (4.18 runs/gm).

-/+ The D-Backs have had a middling bullpen L2Weeks: 4.20 ERA, 4.17 xFIP, and 1.42 WHIP.

- While the Reds have quite a bit of pop, they’re also hitting for an MLB-worst .216 AVG vs. RHPs this season to go along with a lofty 27.1% kRate (2nd highest).

Favorite CIN Bats: Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer, Will Benson

Bargain Bat Mike Ford

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.8k | vs. Keaton Winn (RHP), SF

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

OF Kyle Tucker, HOU | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.2k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Slade Cecconi (RHP), ARI

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), MIN

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $6k, FD: $4k | vs. Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX

OF Christian Yelich, MIL | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Quinn Priester (RHP), PIT

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), TB

C Ryan Jeffers, MIN | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

1B Jake Cronenworth, SD | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

3B Isaac Paredes, TB | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

SS Oneil Cruz, PIT | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Joe Ross (RHP), MIL

1B Nathaniel Lowe, TEX | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Ben Lively (RHP), CLE

OF Joc Pederson, ARI | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

C Cal Raleigh, SEA | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Ronel Blanco (RHP), HOU

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Wilyer Abreu, BOS | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), TB

1B/OF Jake Bauers, MIL | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Quinn Priester (RHP), PIT

3B Alex Bregman, HOU | DK: $4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

3B/OF Willi Castro, MIN | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

1B Carlos Santana, MIN | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

2B Abraham Toro, OAK | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Ronel Blanco (RHP), HOU

OF Jackson Merrill, SD | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

OF Leody Taveras, TEX | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Ben Lively (RHP), CLE

2B/3B Joey Ortiz, MIL | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Quinn Priester (RHP), PIT

OF Luke Raley, TB | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

3B Jose Miranda, MIN | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

1B Mike Ford, CIN | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Slade Cecconi (RHP), ARI

2B/SS Max Schuemann, OAK | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Ronel Blanco (RHP), HOU

3B Zack Short, ATL | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Christian Yelich MORE than 7.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

Isaac Paredes MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!