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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

I hope everyone’s mamas, and any moms reading this, had a great Mother’s Day! A menacing Monday slate hits the board today with a hefty 12-game slate on deck. By 12-game slate standards, the pitching pool is going to feel fairly underwhelming, but that will typically lead to more hitters/stacks falling into play, which opens up added lineup flexibility. There is also only going to be one game that we’ll need to be cautious of from a weather standpoint, which is a welcomed addition to a slate of this size. All of the outdoor games are going to be played in 60-ish degree weather, so we’re still not entering the warm weather months just yet, which is when we should see a noticeable uptick in offensive numbers. But, for today, we should still expect a fairly high-scoring slate based on the dearth of elite pitchers taking the mound. Let’s get the new week rolling on a high note! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• TB @ BOS (7:10 ET): Any impactful rain should hold off until after the game. Winds blowing mostly OUT to left toward the Green Monster at 10 mph, but also a bit right-to-left at times.

• PHI @ NYM (7:10 ET): 10-15 mph winds OUT to left.

• CHC @ ATL (7:20 ET): A stray shower or two could make its way over the ballpark but, overall, nothing too concerning. Winds IN from left near 10 mph.

• WAS @ CWS (7:40 ET): As alluded to in the intro, this will be the one game to pay close attention to due to weather. It’s dry in Chicago at the time of this writing but rain chances spike later in the afternoon and into the evening. The current expected coverage of those rainstorms is mostly unknown at the moment, so be sure to run a pre-game forecast check closer to first pitch before locking in any players from this game. Some sort of lengthy delay is a possibility, as is an outright postponement.

• STL @ LAA (9:38 ET): Mid-60s temps with 10 mph winds blowing OUT to left. It’s not a massive advantage to bats, but probably the best overall hitting conditions on the slate.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.6k | @ SF

Initially, I wasn’t going to spotlight any of the more expensive arms on this slate, but just as I sat down to write today’s newsletter, Gavin Stone, who was previously the projected starter, was scratched, and now Yamamoto will be making the start tonight. It’s a strong spot for Yamamoto who has settled in nicely at the MLB level lately. Spanning his last four outings, which have all been quality starts, Yamamoto has procured a 1.73 ERA, 3.01 xFIP, .214 opp AVG, 0.96 WHIP, and a 25.2% kRate while averaging 25.6 DKFP/45 FDFP per game. The Dodgers also leaned quite heavily on their bullpen yesterday, so they’ll want to get at least six full innings out of Yamamoto tonight, if not seven or eight, pending pitch count efficiency.

There simply isn’t much about this Giants lineup that scares opposing pitchers, especially when they’re at home in San Fran where they’re averaging just 3.53 runs/gm. Against RHPs at home, the Giants rank 27th with a .287 wOBA and 23rd with a 92 wRC+. The Giants also rank mid-pack with a 22.6% kRate versus righties this season. When we dive into Yamamoto’s primary pitch mix, which features a four-seamer, split-finger, and curveball (three pitches that make up over 90% of his repertoire), we’ll find that the Giants have an elevated 24.4% kRate versus that specific pitch mix (from RHPs). Yamamoto has the advantage of being backed by a potent offense which helps lead to the Dodgers being very heavy -194 ML favorites tonight. The Giants are also being pinned with a meager 3.3 implied run total -- second lowest on the slate. I wouldn’t say spending up on pitcher is a necessity on this slate, but getting up to Yamamoto in some lineups, particularly in cash games, will feel like a safe investment.

Brady Singer (RHP), KC | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.3k | @ SEA

Singer is not a guy I would label as an “exciting” DFS investment, but it should be a fairly safe one today. Heading into his ninth start of 2024, Singer owns a sharp 2.36 ERA which is backed up by a less-impressive, but still strong, 3.34 xFIP to go along with an above-average 25.1% kRate and 55.5% Groundball Rate. He’ll also be taking the mound in the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park (#2 most pitcher-friendly ballpark this season).

Of course, the main reason Singer draws DFS interest today is his match-up with the strikeout-addicted Mariners. Seattle’s 29.1% kRate vs. RHPs continues to rank as the highest strikeout rate in all of baseball, and that has bumped up to a 30.8% kRate vs. RHPs over the last week. Seattle does have a bit of ‘pop’ at certain parts of their batting order, and four guys in the projected Mariners lineup today have at least a .174 ISO vs. RHPs this season. But they simply do not hit for average and Singer’s high groundball rate should also help to limit those hard-hit flyballs. Seattle is also averaging just 3.45 runs/gm at home this season, compared to 4.21 runs/gm on the road. On most sportsbooks and prop sites/apps, Singer’s strikeout prop is set at 6.5 Ks, which is the highest of any pitcher on this slate (including Yamamoto). Singer has only cleared seven Ks twice this season, so that gives you an idea of just how much of a strikeout boost this Mariners team can provide opposing pitchers.

Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD | DK: $6k, FD: $7k | vs. COL

Vasquez is far from an elite arm but he does have a chance to provide value in what is an elite match-up against the road Rockies tonight. Vasquez has just three MLB starts under his belt this season, so it’s not a great sample size, but he has come away with a 4.50 ERA which is backed up by a stronger 3.85 xFIP. He also hasn’t issued many walks (5.6% BB%) and he has limited his opponents’ barrel rate to 3.6%. Vazquez made his MLB debut with the Yankees last season, and only has 49.2 IP at the MLB level -- but he has shown a propensity to excel in front of the home crowd. In 25.0 IP at home, Vasquez has posted a 2.16 ERA, .213 opp AVG, and 1.28 WHIP.

Getting to the main feature of this pitcher recommendation is the visiting Rockies, playing away from their hitter-friendly home ballpark. Only the White Sox are averaging fewer runs per game on the road than the Rockies (3.29 runs/gm) and, on the season, Colorado owns an MLB-worst 27.8% kRate vs. RHPs on the road to go along with a weak 79 wRC+ (ranks 26th). If we look into their more recent splits, against RHPs on the road L2Weeks (157 PA), Colorado has gone on to post an awful .159 AVG, .447 OPS, .202 wOBA, .076 ISO, 26 wRC+, and 31.8% kRate… awful stuff. The Rockies also do not have many lefty bats to deploy, and they may only have a couple of LHBs in the lineup tonight. That bodes well for Vasquez considering he has held RHBs to a .212 AVG and .255 wOBA this season. While I am not a huge believer in Randy Vasquez, I am a huge believer in this match-up and it says a lot that the sportsbooks are pinning the Padres as slate-best -225 ML favorites tonight. He’s more suitable as a DraftKings SP2, but if we can squeeze around 20 DKFP/35 FDFP out of Vasquez tonight, I’d say that’d be more than acceptable at his current DFS salaries.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Reynaldo Lopez (RHP), ATL | DK: $9.7k, FD: $9.7k | vs. CHC

Shota Imanaga (LHP), CHC | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10k | @ ATL

George Kirby (RHP), SEA | DK: $9k, FD: $9.4k | vs. KC

Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.6k | vs. TB

Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.8k | @ NYM

Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.7k | @ CWS (Monitor weather)

Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.4k | vs. STL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), NYM

+ The Phillies have been consistently strong vs. LHPs this season: .271 AVG (7th), .763 OPS (8th), .340 wOBA (7th), and 119 wRC+ (7th).

+ Following a couple of strong starts to begin the season, regression has hit Manaea -- over his last five starts, he has posted a 4.44 ERA, 5.56 xFIP, 1.68 WHIP, and he’s allowing nearly as many walks (13.5% BB%) as strikeouts (15.3% kRate).

+ The Phillies have five hitters with at least a .379 wOBA and 146 wRC+ vs. LHPs this season (Bohm, Stott, Realmuto, Schwarber, and Sosa).

+ The Phillies have been potent at home (5.36 runs/gm) but they’ve still been excellent on the road, averaging 5.00 runs/gm.

-/+ Citi Field has ranked as the least hitter-friendly ballpark this season but some 10-15 mph winds blowing out to left will help the carry distance on well-struck flyballs.

-/+ Phillies: 4.0 implied runs (ranks T-14th on the slate).

- The Mets have boasted a top-five bullpen this season: 2.79 ERA, 3.56 xFIP, .190 opp AVG, and 1.18 WHIP.

Favorite PHI Bats: Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, Bryce Harper

Bargain Bat: Edmundo Sosa and/or Whit Merrifield (hitting leadoff again)

Oakland Athletics (RHBs Preferred) vs. Spencer Arrighetti (RHP), HOU

+ Say what you will about their front office, but the A’s offense has been no joke. Since April 28th (14 games), the A’s have ranked 1st in the MLB with each of the following metrics: .833 OPS, .361 wOBA, .225 ISO, 140 wRC+, 90 Runs, and 26 Home Runs.

+ I wouldn’t totally rule out the LHBs from stack consideration, but RHBs will be the preferred targets as Arrighetti has shown some very poor reverse splits vs. RHBs: 10.57 ERA, 2.87 WHIP, 3.52 HR/9 Rate, .513 wOBA, and .308 ISO.

+ There are plenty of red (aka bad) figures in Arrighetti’s statcast figures -- most notably, the 25.9% LineDrive%, 90.8 mph average exit velo (bottom 20th percentile), and 194.3 feet average batted ball distance (bottom 15th percentile).

+ A’s bats are all very affordable and it looks as if they’ll be fairly low-owned as well -- only one player has a pOwn% higher than 8%.

+/- The Astros have rolled out a very mediocre bullpen: 4.57 ERA, 4.13 xFIP, .246 opp AVG, and 1.40 WHIP.

- The A’s have been less effective on the road (3.32 runs/gm away vs. 4.52 runs/gm at home).

- A’s: 3.8 implied runs (5th lowest on the slate).

Favorite OAK Bats: Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, Abraham Toro

Bargain Bat: Max Schuemann

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Cleveland Guardians vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), TEX

+ Every hitter in the projected CLE lineup has a ≤ 10% pOwn%.

+ Guardians: 4.8 implied runs (ranks T-1st on the slate).

+ Lorenzen has been nothing special: 4.66 ERA, 5.13 xERA, 4.54 xFIP, 1.34 WHIP, 19.2% kRate, and 11.7% BB%.

+ The Guardians have been fairly subpar vs. RHPs this season, but they’re always a tough team to strike out and they’ve improved over the last couple of weeks when playing on the road -- vs. RHPs on the road L2Weeks they rank 1st with a .225 ISO and 8th with a 105 wRC+.

+ If the Gurdians can knock Lorenzen out early, they’ll get additional at-bats against a Rangers bullpen that has been AWFUL over the last two weeks: 7.68 ERA, 5.21 xFIP, and 1.84 WHIP.

- Globe Life Field ranks 28th in Park Factor this season.

- Overall on the season, the Guardians have just a .206 AVG and 90 wRC+ vs. RHPs.

Favorite CLE Bats: Josh Naylor, Jose Ramirez, Andres Gimenez

Bargain Bat: Tyler Freeman (preferred if leading off again) and/or Kyle Manzardo (if he’s back in the lineup)

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.3k | vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), ARI

OF Kyle Tucker, HOU | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Ross Stripling (RHP), OAK

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Jordan Hicks (RHP), SF

SS CJ Abrams, WAS | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), CWS

C William Contreras, MIL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4k | vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

3B Alec Bohm, PHI | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), NYM

1B Josh Naylor, CLE | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), TEX

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), COL

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Shota Imanaga (LHP), CHC

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE

2B Ketel Marte, ARI | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Graham Ashcraft (RHP), CIN

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Zach Eflin (RHP), TB

OF Cody Bellinger, CHC | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Reynaldo Lopez (RHP), ATL

3B Isaac Paredes, TB | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

3B Ryan McMahon, COL | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

SS Oneil Cruz, PIT | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Colin Rea (RHP), MIL

OF Brandon Nimmo, NYM | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

C Cal Raleigh, SEA | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Spencer Arrighetti (RHP), HOU

OF Wilyer Abreu, BOS | DK: $4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Zach Eflin (RHP), TB

OF Lars Nootbaar, STL | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

C Shea Langeliers, OAK | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Spencer Arrighetti (RHP), HOU

OF Tommy Pham, CWS | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

2B Abraham Toro, OAK | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Spencer Arrighetti (RHP), HOU

OF Jo Adell, LAA | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

OF Leody Taveras, TEX | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE

OF Kevin Pillar, LAA | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

2B/OF Whit Merrifield, PHI | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), NYM

1B Jon Singleton, HOU | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Ross Stripling (RHP), OAK

3B/SS Edmundo Sosa, PHI | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), NYM

SS Paul DeJong, CWS | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

OF Eddie Rosario, WAS | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), CWS

2B/SS Max Shuemann, OAK | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Spencer Arrighetti (RHP), HOU

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Kyle Tucker MORE than 8.0 Hitter Fantasy Score

Edmundo Sosa MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs*

*This is a “Demon” prop on PrizePicks, meaning it’ll contribute toward a higher payout if it hits.

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!