Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We didn’t have much MLB action yesterday, with many teams traveling ahead of their respective weekend series match-ups, but we’re back in the saddle today. A beefy 13-game main slate lands on the menu tonight, and this one has it all. Aces on the mound, several enticing SPs out of the mid-range and value tier, Coors Field is on the board, and a ton of offenses will hold high expectations (11 teams with a 4.8+ implied run total). And, from the looks of it, there are also no major weather concerns! Let’s batten down the hatches and prepare to tackle this massive Friday slate! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

TB @ NYY (7:05 ET): Winds OUT to center around 10 mph.

LAA @ CLE (7:10 ET): Chance for some brief periods of light rain, but seems like they could play through it, if need be.

CHC @ MIN (8:10 ET): Winds IN from left/center around 10 mph. Low chance of some light rain.

HOU @ CWS (8:10 ET): They may get clipped by a small batch of rain around first pitch in Chicago, but the worst-case scenario looks like a potential late start.

PHI @ COL (8:40 ET): Cooler temps in the 50s with winds blowing IN from right/center around 10 mph. It’s still Coors Field, so it’s a great hitting environment regardless, but just not the most favorable conditions.

SF @ ARI (9:40 ET): The Chase Field roof is scheduled to be open tonight. Temps in Phoenix will be in the low 90s at first pitch.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Drew Smyly (LHP), CHC | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.8k | @ MIN

Guys like Spencer Strider (DK: $12.2k, FD: $11.5k) and Corbin Burnes (DK: $9.2k, FD: $10k) are looking like the preferred spend-up pitching options on this slate, but Smyly will have some appeal as a pivot play away from those guys and should carry a fraction of the ownership. On a day where many games are expected to be fairly high-scoring, this game sets up as an under-the-radar pitcher’s duel between Smyly and Sonny Gray (DK: $10k, FD: $10.8k) and carries a slate-low 7.5 over/under. Smyly has been rock-solid ever since a poor 2023 debut performance against the Reds in the very hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. In his remaining outings (six starts, 33.2 IP), Smyly has put up a 1.87 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, .169 opp AVG, and 24.6% kRate. His 4.11 xFIP in that span is a bit concerning, but let’s hope that any regression will hold off for at least one more day. Smyly has also been elite at limiting hard-hit balls -- his 84.5 mph average exit velocity leads all qualified MLB starters and his 27.1% HardHit% ranks second, only to teammate Justin Steele.

What largely makes Smyly an intriguing leverage play will be his match-up. The Twins are tied for the fewest runs scored against LHPs this season and they’ve been just an all-around bad offense versus lefties -- .203 AVG (ranks 28th), .283 wOBA (27th), 79 wRC+ (26th), and 28.4% kRate (2nd highest). Those Twins' offensive numbers against LHPs get even uglier if we take a look at their last two-week splits: .200 AVG, .275 wOBA, 74 wRC+, and 31.6% kRate. Target Field is the #9 most pitcher-friendly ballpark and some ~10 mph winds blowing in will help push the odds even further in favor of the pitchers tonight. I wouldn’t label Smyly as a “slam dunk” play, but if you want to get a little different, there is a solid case to be made for rostering him tonight.

JP France (RHP), HOU | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.7k | @ CWS

France got the call up last week and the 28-year-old righty shined in his MLB debut against the Mariners, covering five scoreless frames (84 PC), allowing just three hits and one walk while striking out five batters. He was also in line for the win before the Astros bullpen came in to blow a 3-0 lead in the final innings. France is a prospect who can provide ample strikeout potential. He’s had a strong kRate in every stop he’s made through his MiLB progression and in 19.1 IP in Triple-A this year, he owned a 33.8% kRate to go along with a 2.33 ERA, .136 opp AVG, and 1.03 WHIP.

France will make his second big league start against an uninspiring White Sox team that has been a bottom-10 offense versus RHPs this season -- .235 AVG, .294 wOBA, .140 ISO, 84 wRC+, with a 22.1% kRate. The White Sox have found a bit more life in their bats in recent weeks, but they’ve still been an average offense at best. A 17-4 win over the Reds this past Sunday can be partially to blame for inflating their recent offensive averages as well. It’s always tough to trust an inexperienced rookie, especially when they’re not necessarily a highly regarded prospect. But between a strong debut and showing some great strikeout prowess in the minor leagues, France has some DFS appeal out of the mid-range today.

Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA | DK: $5.5k, FD: $7.1k | @ CLE

For the cheap spotlighted starting pitcher today, we’ll be looking at Angels lefty Tyler Anderson taking on the Cleveland Guardians. Anderson has gotten off to a rocky start to the season with three solid starts and three poor outings. Through six starts and 31.2 IP this season, Anderson owns a 5.40 ERA, 5.94 xFIP, 1.64 WHIP, and 16.3% kRate. In other words, “not great.” However, Anderson has looked decent in his last two starts (@ MIL, vs. TEX) while averaging 17.42 DKFP/34.5 FDFP. He was also a quality back-of-the-rotation piece for the Dodgers last season where he posted a 15-5 record and maintained a 2.57 ERA and 1.00 WHIP across 178.2 IP. Anderson has also forced an 11.9% SwStr% this season, so we can expect his low 16.3% kRate to begin to climb sooner rather than later.

But, once again, the main appeal for Anderson will stem from his match-up this evening. The Guardians have performed poorly versus LHPs this season -- .214 AVG, .274 wOBA, .112 ISO, 72 wRC+, with a 21.6% kRate. Outside of the kRate, those are all bottom-five offensive numbers. Cleveland has been downright awful in 111 PA versus LHPs in the last two weeks: .167 AVG, .221 wOBA, .078 ISO, 36 wRC+, and 24.3% kRate. Again, outside of the kRate (which is the 7th highest), those offensive results all rank dead last in the MLB in that span. None of the three spotlighted pitchers today are overly safe options but there is certainly a pathway to success for each guy. Anderson is dirt cheap, which opens up plenty of room for big bats and pricey stacks, and he draws a strong match-up in a pitcher-friendly ballpark today against a team that hasn’t done much of anything against lefty pitching.

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL | DK: $12.2k, FD: $11.5k | @ TOR

Sonny Gray (RHP), MIN | DK: $10k, FD: $10.8k | vs. CHC

Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10k | vs. KC

MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.2k | vs. NYM

Martin Perez (LHP), TEX | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.2k | @ OAK

Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.5k | @ COL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

Non-Coors Stacks

Boston Red Sox vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL

+ Red Sox: 5.8 implied runs (ranks T-1st on the slate).

+ The 41-year-old Wainwright missed the first five weeks of the season with a groin injury but did not look polished in his debut versus DET six days ago, allowing eight hits and four ER over 5.0 IP.

+ BOS has been elite versus RHPs, ranking either first or second in AVG, wOBA, and wRC+.

+ BOS vs. RHPs in the last two weeks: .322 AVG, .389 wOBA, .203 ISO, 145 wRC+.

+ Fenway Park is the #3 most hitter-friendly ballpark & BOS is averaging 6.20 runs/gm at home.

-/+ STL bullpen has been middle-of-the-pack this season.

- Wainwright can be a tough pitcher to hit HRs against and has a 0.70 HR/9 Rate since the start of 2022.

Favorite BOS Bats: Alex Verdugo, Rafael Devers, Masataka Yoshida | Bargain Bat: Jarren Duran

Texas Rangers vs. Ken Waldichuk (LHP), OAK

+ Waldichuk has had a few decent outings this season but is one of the lowest quality starters overall: 7.25 ERA, 5.63 xFIP, 1.75 WHIP, .423 opp wOBA, 23.1% HR/9 Rate.

+ TEX has been excellent versus LHPs, ranking top five in OBP, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+.

+ TEX vs. LHPs in the last two weeks (140 PA): .314 AVG, .403 OBP, .401 wOBA, .212 ISO, 159 wRC+, 39.5% HardContact%.

+ Getting some innings against OAK’s MLB-worst bullpen (6.87 ERA, 6.12 xFIP, 1.74 WHIP, 16.6% kRate) is always a major plus for an opposing offense.

-/+ TEX is a better offense at home (6.67 runs/gm, ranks 1st) but they’ve still been a stout offense on the road (5.84 runs/gm, ranks 3rd).

-/+ Rangers: 4.7 implied runs (ranks T-12th on the slate).

- Oakland Coliseum is the #6 least hitter-friendly ballpark.

- For a 13-game slate, some fairly high ownership is expected for several TEX bats.

Favorite TEX Bats: Marcus Semien, Josh Jung, Jonah Heim | Bargain Bat: Ezequiel Duran

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Giants Bullpen (Ross Stripling PLR?)

+ D-Backs: 5.3 implied runs (ranks T-4th on the slate).

+ If Ross Stripling is indeed the Giants’ long reliever, that will represent a plus match-up -- Stripling in 25.4 IP this season: 6.66 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, .402 opp xwOBA, 36.4% HR/FB Rate.

+ ARI has been a top-10 offense at home: 5.10 runs/gm (7th), .286 AVG (3rd), .348 wOBA (5th), 115 wRC+ (7th).

+ Despite being in a fairly strong spot, all ARI hitters in the projected lineup have a <5% pOwn%.

+ The Chase Field roof is scheduled to be open tonight -- 90+ degree temps in PHX at first pitch.

+ Solid stolen base upside -- ARI ranks 7th with 31 SBs this season.

+/- The SF bullpen has struggled this season: 5.70 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 1.42 HR/9 Rate. However, they may be due for some positive regression based on their 4.16 xFIP (ranks 12th).

- It can be difficult for offenses to get into a rhythm when their opponents elect to go with a bullpen game.

Favorite ARI Bats: Christian Walker, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Corbin Carroll | Bargain Bat: Dominic Fletcher

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.2k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Rays Bullpen

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $6k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS

1B Paul Goldschmidt, STL | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.9k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), BOS

OF Kris Bryant, COL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

2B/SS Thairo Estrada, SF | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

1B Matt Olson, ATL | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

2B Marcus Semien, TEX | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Ken Waldichuk (LHP), OAK

OF Nick Castellanos, PHI | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

C Will Smith, LAD | DK: $5.1k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Blake Snell (LHP), LAD

OF Cedric Mullins, BAL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Johan Oviedo (RHP), PIT

OF Juan Soto, SD | DK: $5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Dustin May (RHP), LAD

OF Alex Verdugo, BOS | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL

1B Christian Walker, ARI | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Giants Bullpen

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., ARI | DK: $4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Giants Bullpen

OF Harrison Bader, NYY | DK: $4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Rays Bullpen

OF Jarren Duran, BOS | DK: $4k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL

OF Anthony Santander, BAL | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Johan Oviedo (RHP), PIT

3B Josh Jung, TEX | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Ken Waldichuk (LHP), OAK

C William Contreras, MIL | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Josh Taylor (LHP), KC

C Jonah Heim, TEX | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Ken Waldichuk (LHP), OAK

1B LaMonte Wade Jr., SF | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

3B Anthony Rendon, LAA | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Logan Allen (LHP), CLE

SS Ezequiel Duran, TEX | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Ken Waldichuk (LHP), OAK

SS Casey Schmidt, SF | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

OF Dominic Fletcher, ARI | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2k | vs. Giants Bullpen

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit, but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Spencer Strider MORE than 8.0 Pitcher Strikeouts

Jonah Heim MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!