Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 5/10 | Rocking Wednesday's Small Evening Slate!

Author

Ryan Humphries
May 10, 2023

Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Happy Hump Day! As is often the case on Wednesdays, we’ve got baseball action popping off throughout the day and into the evening. And, for one of the first times this season, the DraftKings and FanDuel MLB main slates will be a bit misaligned. The DK main slate will only include the four games in the 7 o’clock ET window, beginning at 7:20 ET, while the FD slate includes those same four games along with the two games in the 6 o’clock ET window (TB @ BAL and NYM @ CIN), beginning at 6:35 ET. I’m not sure why DK sectioned off the two earlier games into their own slate since they had been regularly lumping those 6 o’clock start times into their main slates this season. Really, who likes a two-game split slate?

Anyhow, for the purposes of today’s newsletter, we’ll be primarily focusing on the four mutually shared games. As such, this will be a bit of a condensed write-up but here’s to another fun, and hopefully successful, day of MLB DFS! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

CWS @ KC (7:40 ET): Low-end chance of a random pop-up storm. Winds blowing a bit IN from right, a bit right to left around 10 mph.

STL @ CHC (7:40 ET): Winds blowing IN from right around 5-10 mph.

SD @ MIN (7:40 ET): Winds blowing IN from right around 5-10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Justin Steele (LHP), CHC | DK: $9.8k, FD: $11k | vs. STL

Steele has found a nice groove in 2023, and across seven starts (43.1 IP), he owns a stellar 1.45 ERA and 0.95 WHIP backed up by a decent 3.92 xFIP. His 21.8% kRate is fairly average but that may be due to rise given Steele’s 11.9% SwStr% -- oftentimes, you can double a pitcher’s SwStr% to get their overall kRate so Steele may begin to inch closer toward a ~24.0% kRate as the season progresses. Where he really shines is his ability to induce weak or medium contact. Steele's 23.3% HardHit% allowed is not only the best mark on the slate but leads all qualified MLB starting pitchers this season. Add in some 5-10 mph winds blowing in at the very wind-sensitive Wrigley Field, and you have a great pitching environment set up for Steele tonight.

The Cardinals have been one of the more disappointing teams in the early season as they’re off to a 13-24 record through 37 games while averaging just 3.78 runs/gm on the road. They have still been a top-10 offense versus LHPs overall on the season, but have a very average 97 wRC+ and a high 28.0% kRate against LHPs on the road. Also, if we look at their performance versus LHPs in the last two weeks (128 PA), they’ve put up just a .212 AVG, .258 wOBA, .085 ISO, 62 wRC+, and 25.0% kRate. Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy Edman, and Willson Contreras are the only three Cardinals hitters who have done much of anything against lefties this season so it sets up as a somewhat sneaky-good spot for Justin Steele today.

Lance Lynn (RHP), CWS | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.8k | @ KC

It’s been an up-and-down season thus far for Lance Lynn which has led to an ugly 6.86 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. However, luck has not been on Lynn’s side, evidenced by hit rock-solid 3.62 xFIP. His 28.6% kRate and 13.7% kRate are also the second-best marks on this slate behind Pablo Lopez (30.7% kRate, 14.6% SwStr%). Lynn comes in with some nice momentum after racking up 10 Ks and allowing only three hits and four runs across 6.1 IP to a very dangerous Tampa Bay Rays team two starts ago and he notched a win along with 8 Ks and 22.2 DKFP/38 FDFP in the very hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark last Friday.

The Royals, who had an abysmal offense to start the season, have picked up some steam as of late. They come in with a .386 wOBA, .226 ISO, and 146 wRC+ over the last week. For Lance Lynn’s sake, let’s hope they regress more toward their season averages. They’ve been a bottom-five offense against RHPs on the season as a whole, hitting just .228 (ranks 26th) with a .286 wOBA (28th) and 77 wRC+ (28th) while posting a lofty 24.9% kRate (7th highest). If we’re being honest, Lynn’s lowered salaries are a primary draw for him as a DFS option today since these Royals hitters have not been pushovers lately. Without many options to choose from on a small slate, he’ll certainly need to fall into consideration this evening.

 

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Justin Verlander (RHP), NYM | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.5k | @ CIN (FanDuel main slate only)

Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.6k | vs. SD

Jordan Montgomery (LHP), STL | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.9k | @ CHC

Seth Lugo (RHP), SD | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.2k | @ MIN

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Atlanta Braves vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

+ Braves: 5.4 implied runs (ranks 1st on the slate).

+ Bello through four starts (17.1 IP) this season: 5.71 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, .394 opp wOBA, 28.6% HR/FB Rate.

+ Bello has allowed a slate-high 51.8% HardHit% this season.

+ Against RHPs, ATL ranks 4th with a 34.8% HardContact%, 16.4% HR/FB Rate, and 5th with a .184 team ISO.

-/+ BOS has had a top-10 bullpen this season (3.49 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 0.76 HR/9), though they may be due for some regression based on their 4.49 xFIP (6th worst).

- Bello’s 5.71 ERA is backed up by a much better 3.63 xFIP, so he’s been the victim of some bad luck this season.

- ATL has been better on the road (6.00 runs/gm) than at home (4.94 runs/gm) this season.

- ATL core bats are expensive and look to be high-owned on the small slate.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuña Jr., Sean Murphy, Matt Olson | Bargain Bat: Orlando Arcia

 

Chicago White Sox vs. Brad Keller (RHP), KC

+ White Sox: 5.1 implied runs (ranks 2nd on the slate).

+ Brad Keller is in some terrible form; over his last four starts, he owns a 7.13 ERA, 7.41 xFIP, 2.49 WHIP, .448 opp wOBA, 10.1% kRate, and a 22.5% Walk Rate.

+ Keller averages -73.0% less FPPG at home.

+ KC has had a bottom-10 bullpen this season.

+ Kauffman Stadium is the #6 most hitter-friendly ballpark.

+ There are plenty of affordable bats in this CWS lineup.

-/+ CWS has been a bottom-10 offense vs. RHPs this season but they have progressed to an above-average offense in recent weeks.

- CWS have some pedestrian BvP numbers vs. Keller: 100 PA, .241 AVG, .299 wOBA.

Favorite CWS Bats: Luis Robert Jr., Gavin Sheets, Andrew Vaughn | Bargain Bat: Hanser Alberto

 

FanDuel Main Slate Stacks:

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

Baltimore Orioles vs. Jalen Beeks (LHP), TB

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Kansas City Royals vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), CWS

+ Lynn was spotlighted above in the pitching section, but he could easily implode against a hot Royals lineup.

+ Lynn is allowing a .364 opp wOBA and 22.5% HR/FB Rate this season.

+ It’s a smaller sample size, but against RHPs over the last week (190 PA), the Royals own a .292 AVG (ranks 4th), .370 wOBA (2nd), .232 ISO (3rd), and 135 wRC+ (3rd).

+ Lynn is allowing a .414 wOBA and .304 ISO to LHBs.

+ CWS has had one of the worst bullpens in the MLB: 6.21 ERA, 4.48 xFIP, 1.63 WHIP, and 1.57 HR/9.

+ Lynn sets up as a very chalky SP option today (44% pOwn% on DK, 42% pOwn% on FD) so a KC stack provides some major small slate leverage.

+ Kauffman Stadium is the #6 most hitter-friendly ballpark.

- Lynn may have a poor 6.86 ERA but his solid 3.62 xFIP implies he’s been getting quite unlucky -- he also has a high 28.6% kRate this season.

- On the season, KC has been a bottom-five offense vs. RHPs.

- KC averaging just 4.05 runs/gm this season.

Favorite KC Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Salvador Perez | Bargain Bat: Nick Pratto

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B Paul Goldschmidt, STL | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4k | vs. Justin Steele (LHP), CHC

SS Wander Franco, TB | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL (FD main slate only)

OF Byron Buxton, MIN | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Seth Lugo (RHP), SD

OF Cedric Mullins, BAL | DK: $5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Jalen Beeks (LHP), TB (FD main slate only)

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), CWS

OF Alex Verdugo, BOS | DK: $5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. ATL Bullpen

C Sean Murphy, ATL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

OF Cody Bellinger, CHC | DK: $4.8k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), STL

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Brad Keller (RHP), KC

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Anthony Santander, BAL | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Jalen Beeks (LHP), TB (FD main slate only)

1B Vinnie Pasquantino, KC | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), CWS

SS Orlando Arcia, ATL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

1B Andrew Vaughn, CWS | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Brad Keller (RHP), KC

1B/OF Luke Raley, TB | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL (FD main slate only)

OF Rob Refsnyder, BOS | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.4k | vs. ATL Bullpen

3B Hanser Alberto, CWS | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Brad Keller (RHP), KC

1B/OF Gavin Sheets, CWS | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Brad Keller (RHP), KC

C Francisco Alvarez, NYM | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN (FD main slate only)

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Seth Lugo + Pablo Lopez LESS than 0.5 First Inning Runs Allowed

Nick Pratto MORE than 0.5 Total Bases

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!

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