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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s a full-on MLB Friday frenzy and we’ll have a monster 12-game main slate to dissect! Full disclosure, I’m currently mobile right now writing this article on the road from my sister’s car and my six-year-old nephew is doing his best to distract me from the backseat (I still love him, though). So today’s newsletter is going to be a bit more condensed than usual, but we’ll still be looking to cover all of the bases on this huge slate. With that said, we’ll get right into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• ARI @ BAL (7:05 ET): Scattered showers around this afternoon and into the early evening. Fortunately, it doesn’t look to be anything severe. They could get lucky and avoid the rain altogether, or just play through any wet weather, but I believe the worst-case scenario would be a late start and play. Cool temps around 50 degrees with 10 mph winds blowing IN from center.

• WAS @ BOS (7:10 ET): More cool temps here in the upper-40s with 5-10 mph winds IN from center.

• ATL @ NYM (7:10 ET): Good chance for a late start here as rain clears around 8 o’clock ET. A little patience will be needed but once they get going, there should be no further issues. Upper-40s temps with 10 mph winds blowing IN from right.

• CLE @ CWS (7:40 ET): Possible light rain early but it shouldn’t hinder this game from playing as scheduled. Some heavy rain arrives later in the night but the game should easily be finished by then.

• TEX @ COL (8:40 ET): A sprinkle or two is possible. No real concern.

• KC @ LAA (9:38 ET): 70 degrees with 10-15 mph winds OUT to center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11.1k | @ MIA

We’re still only about 20% of the way into the 2024 season but Ranger Suarez is making a strong case to be a frontrunner in the NL Cy Young award race. He’s been sharp across all seven of his starts but, if we look at his five most recent outings, we’ll see some elite numbers: 36.0 IP, 1.00 ERA, 2.62 xFIP, 0.72 WHIP, .171 opp AVG, and 26.9% kRate. Over the last month, he has surrendered just an 81.5 mph average exit velocity (top 95th percentile) and an average batted-ball distance of 128.5 feet (90th percentile).

Suarez will draw a very favorable match-up against a Marlins team that has had very little success against lefty pitching. On the season vs. LHPs, Miami ranks 25th in AVG, 28th in OPS, 28th in wOBA, 30th in ISO, and 29th in wRC+. They’re only striking out at a 19.6% clip against southpaw pitching but that is the only negative about this match-up for Suarez. I’d be pretty stunned if Suarez doesn’t post a seventh consecutive quality start tonight. We’ve already seen him deliver a CGSO this season and, if a few things go the right way, he could realistically notch another one tonight.

Logan Webb (RHP), SF | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.1k | vs. CIN

Most folks probably aren’t ever going to be psyched to slide groundball specialist Logan Webb into their lineups, but there are times when he just makes sense. Today is one of those spots. Webb’s kRate sits below the league average at just 18.3% but he’s among the league leaders with a 58.8% Groundball Rate. So, he’s lucky to ever get more than a handful of strikeouts but the tradeoff is that he can often pitch across even or even eight innings due to all of the quick groundball outs he can generate. Webb brings a quality 3.50 ERA and even better 3.23 xFIP into his ninth start of the season. He’s also a guy who has noticeably stronger splits at home where, in 22.0 IP at Oracle Park this season, Webb has posted a 0.82 ERA, 2.92 xFIP, and 0.91 WHIP.

The Reds have plenty of young talent in their lineup but they’re pretty hard stuck in a slump right now. Over the last week, they’ve posted an abysmal .172 AVG, .224 wOBA, .075 ISO, and 38 wRC+ -- easily ranking dead last in the MLB in every metric. They’re numbers against RHPs, specifically, over the last two weeks are also ugly -- .187 AVG, .258 wOBA, .131 ISO, 59 wRC+, and 27.4% kRate. The Reds also have the 4th highest Groundball Rate against RHPs, which of course plays right into Logan Webb’s skillset.

Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.3k | @ SF

Pricing makes him more sensible as an SP2 on DraftKings but Andrew Abbott is in a quality spot as the cheaper adversary of the aforementioned Logan Webb. This game features a slate-low 6.5 over/under so scoring is expected to be at a premium for both sides. Abbott will come in with some solid form after registering a 3.29 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 24.3% kRate over his last five starts (27.1 IP). His kRate is easily the best out of all of the other cheap arms priced around Abbott in the DraftKings pecking order.

This Giants offense just doesn’t have the prowess to pop off more than once in a blue moon and they’re also coming off of a road series in Colorado, so the “Coors Field hangover” could hit them tonight. Against LHPs over the L2Weeks, the Giants are batting .207 with a .264 wOBA, .087 ISO, 73 wRC+, and 20.4% kRate. The kRate isn’t all that high but the primary point being is that San Fran has not done much damage against lefties as of late. The Giants are also averaging just 3.38 runs/gm at home. At $6,700 on DraftKings, Abbott makes for an ideal SP2 candidate if you also want a high-end SP1 and still have room for a few big hitters.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Tyler Glasnow (RHP), LAD | DK: $10.9k, FD: $11.3k | @ SD

Garrett Crochet (LHP), CWS | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.9k |  vs. CLE

Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA | DK: $8k, FD: $8k | vs. OAK

Paul Blackburn (RHP), OAK | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.7k | @ SEA

Jon Gray (RHP), TEX | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.4k | @ COL

Robert Gasser (LHP), MIL | DK: $5k, FD: N/A | vs. STL (DraftKings GPP SP2)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Texas Rangers vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

Non-Coors Stacks

Boston Red Sox vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

The Red Sox have been an above-average offense against LHPs -- their .718 OPS, .327 wOBA, and 105 wRC+ against southpaws over the last month all rank them 12th or better. However, their main issue has been an absurdly high 30.1% kRate vs. LHPs this season. Fortunately, they’ll be up against Patrick Corbin tonight, who happens to possess a slate-low 14.4% kRate to go along with an awful 1.81 WHIP and 6.45 ERA. The Red Sox have some platoon righties to roll out against lefty starters, but the mainstay LHBs in the lineup, like Rafael Devers and Jarren Duran, should not be shied away from. Against LHBs this season, Corbin has struggled to a 12.91 ERA, 2.74 WHIP, and .465 opp wOBA.

Favorite BOS Bats: Rafael Devers, Tyler O’Neill, Jarren Duran

Bargain Bat: Connor Wong

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP), MIA

We’ll go after another lefty who pitches to contact with the Phillies in town to take on Trevor Rogers. Losing Trea Turner (hamstring) for an extended period hurts the overall upside of this lineup, but they still have plenty of guys who have been red-hot over the last several weeks. The Phillies have consistently been a top-10 offense versus LHPs and, excluding the injured Turner, they have seven guys on the roster with at least a 118 wRC+ against lefties this season. This isn’t a great Marlins bullpen either so if Rogers gets treated to an early exit, the Phillies will still draw some favorable match-ups.

Favorite PHI Bats: Alec Bohm, JT Realmuto, Bruce Harper

Bargain Bat: Edmundo Sosa

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Oakland Athletics vs. Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA

Every hitter in the A’s projected lineup checks in with single-projected ownership today with most guys at 5% pOwn% or lower. Bryan Woo will be making his 2024 MLB debut after a solid inaugural campaign last season (87.2 IP, 4.21 ERA, 4.26 xFIP, 1.21 WHIP, and 25.1% kRate). He has also been dealing in Triple-A this year, allowing zero earned runs across his 11.1 IP while rocking a 0.44 WHIP and an insane 43.6% kRate. However, Woo is coming off of the 15-day IL with an elbow injury and likely isn’t set up to handle a full workload. He’ll also be going up against an A’s lineup that has generated an MLB-best .389 wOBA and 158 wRC+ over the last week. They’re just a team full of mostly no-names who have been mashing. No offense is going to consistently perform at this current level, but the A’s have run totals of 20, 11, 9, and 8 in four of their last six games. For GPPs, it’s worth at least getting a little two or three-man A’s stack going just in case they continue to outperform expectations.

Favorite OAK Bats: Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, Abraham Toro

Bargain Bat: JJ Bleday

Unfortunately, I’ve ran short on time and was unable to put together my favorite one-off hitters and bargain batters lists but, for a further breakdown on today’s slate, make sure you give Tyler’s DFS video (posted at the top of this newsletter) a watch. No prop plays from me either today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have some great suggestions in the “Props & Best Bets” video as well — they’ve been crushing it this season! Happy takedown hunting and everyone enjoy your weekend!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR).

Best of luck out there today, everyone!