Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 5/1 | New Month, New Money!

Author

Ryan Humphries
May 01, 2023

Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Welcome back to another loaded week of MLB action! And, as the saying goes, “new month, new money!” We’ll kick off the month of May with a modest six-game slate this evening. It’s a bit of a peculiar slate with some lackluster pitching options but there are also not many offenses in incredibly enticing spots. Nonetheless, we’ll see what we can stitch together for this six-gamer. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

CHC @ WAS (7:05 ET): Scattered showers in the area. A delay of some sort is a possibility but a washout is unlikely. Cooler temps in the 50s with winds blowing OUT to right around 10 mph.

CLE @ NYY (7:05 ET): Similar forecast as WAS. Some scattered showers will be around but they could easily avoid the ballpark altogether. Temps in the 50s, winds blowing OUT to left around 10 mph.

TOR @ BOS (7:10 ET): Winds blowing OUT to left at 10+ mph.

CIN @ SD (9:40 ET): They could see some light rain here as well but nothing too problematic. Winds OUT to right at 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Domingo German (RHP), NYY | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.4k | vs. CLE

You could build a case for and against essentially every one of today’s starting pitchers but we’ll lead off with the Yankees’ righty Domingo German. Through five starts and 26.0 IP this season, German is only averaging 83 pitches/gm and has a lackluster 5.54 ERA. However, he has pitched much better than what his ERA shows, evidenced by a sharp 3.52 xFIP paired with a low 1.08 WHIP, 30.8% kRate, and a slate-best 17.3% Swinging Strike Rate. And, despite not having a long leash on his pitch count, German has worked through at least six full innings in three consecutive starts.

German faces a Guardians offense that is a tricky one to diagnose. On the bright side, Cleveland has been a bottom-10 offense vs. RHPs with a .298 wOBA (ranks 24th) and 88 wRC+ (23rd). They also have very limited power in their lineup, with a .120 ISO (26th) and 27.3% HardContact% (28th) against righties, and they’ve hit the second-fewest home runs in the MLB this season (17). The downside, in German’s case, is Cleveland’s ability to make contact and avoid strikeouts. Their 19.0% kRate vs. RHPs is the second-lowest in the MLB. All-in-all, we can hope for another 6+ IP outing from German paired with a handful of strikeouts. And, if his xFIP is any indication, German’s ERA should begin to climb back down as well. He’s a worthy option on what is a very “meh” pitching slate.

Blake Snell (LHP), SD | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8k | vs. CIN

Snell has not been very impressive this season, pitching to a 5.48 ERA, 5.19 xFIP, 1.87 WHIP, 23.9% kRate, and a 16.5% Walk Rate. In his defense, outside of an Opening Day home match-up with the Rockies, Snell has faced some tough competition -- @ ATL, @ NYM, vs. ATL, and @ CHC in his four remaining starts. Since joining the Padres in 2021, he has typically been excellent when taking the mound at home in the pitcher-friendly Petco Park. In 29 home starts (158.2 IP) as a Padre, Snell has produced a 3.18 ERA, 2.97 xFIP, 1.10 WHIP, .263 opp wOBA, and a stellar 33.9% kRate.

Drawing the Reds away from their hitter-friendly home ballpark represents a strong match-up. The Reds are averaging just 3.69 runs/gm on the road this season versus 5.13 runs/gm at home. Against LHPs on the road, the Reds have a below-average 84 wRC+ paired with a high 25.7% kRate and a low 6.9% Walk Rate. One good thing about Snell is his ability to routinely handle 100+ pitch workloads. If he can begin to cut down on that high walk rate of his, which has been a leading cause of his inability to pitch through more than five innings this season, then his strikeout upside could result in him ending the slate as the highest-scoring pitcher on the slate. The Padres (-225 ML) are the heaviest favorites on the slate and the Reds are being pinned with a slate-low 3.7 implied runs.

Tony Gonsolin (RHP), LAD | DK: $6.8k, FD: $9k | vs. PHI

Gonsolin spent the first few weeks of the season on the IL with an ankle injury so the main concern with him today will be pitch count limitations. After throwing 65 pitches across 3.1 IP in his season debut last Wednesday, we can probably expect Gonsolin to up his workload to around 75 pitches. That makes him a fairly unattractive play at his $9,000 price tag on FanDuel, but for $6,800 on DraftKings, he could work out as a cheap SP2 play. Gonsolin was one of the more consistent starters in 2022, ending his campaign with a 16-1 record across 24 starts (130.1 IP) and a 2.14 ERA, 3.69 xFIP, 0.87 WHIP, 23.9% kRate, and a .172 opp AVG.

The Phillies have been a solid offense against RHPs this season: .272 AVG (3rd), .339 wOBA (7th), and 109 wRC+ (8th). However, they have a lofty 25.0% kRate on the year (9th highest). They’ve also fizzled a bit in recent weeks. Against RHPs in the last 14 days, the Phillies’ average has dipped to .237 with a .305 wOBA, 88 wRC+, and a high 27.0% kRate. Their offensive numbers also take a dive when playing on the road and they had a late travel night following their Sunday Night Baseball match-up in Houston yesterday. So, the hope with Gonsolin today would be that his 75-ish projected pitches thrown will be enough to work through five full innings with limited damage allowed while racking up around a strikeout per inning and qualifying for a win bonus (LAD: -170 ML favorites). Gonsolin was routinely priced in the $9k and $10k ranges last season so even if we’re getting the 70-80% “version” of him, he’s an attractive value option at that $6,800 DraftKings salary.

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Luis Garcia (RHP), HOU | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.6k | vs. SF

MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS | DK: $8.1k, FD: $10.5k | vs. CHC

Drew Smyly (LHP), CHC | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.3k | @ WAS

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Corey Kluber (RHP), BOS

+ Blue Jays: 5.4 implied runs (ranks 1st on the slate).

+ Kluber through 24.0 IP this season: 6.75 ERA, 5.61 xFIP, 17.5% HR/FB Rate, 42.1% HardHit%.

+ BOS Bullpen: 4.62 xFIP (6th highest in MLB).

+ Fenway Park: #3 ranked hitter’s ballpark.

+ Blue Jays at Fenway Park in 2022: .322 AVG, .369 wOBA, 144 wRC+.

+ Blue Jays come in hot over the last week with a .342 wOBA and 120 wRC+.

- BOS bullpen has only allowed 0.78 HR/9 this season.

- Blue Jays make for a pricey stack with high ownership (six hitters with a 20+% pOwn%).

Favorite TOR Bats: Vlad Guerrero Jr., Matt Chapman, Bo Bichette | Bargain Bat: Whit Merrifield

San Diego Padres vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), CIN

+ Padres: 4.8 implied runs (ranks 2nd on the slate).

+ Only a two start, 11.2 IP sample size, but Luke Weaver is allowing an incredibly high 94.7 mph average exit velocity, 63.3% HardHit%, and 13.7% Barrel%.

+ Weaver has already given up five home runs in his two starts.

+ In 62 PA vs. Weaver, the current Padres roster has a .345 AVG, .453 wOBA, and 14.5% kRate.

+ Versus RHPs at home, the Padres have a .357 wOBA, .224 ISO, and 131 wRC+.

- Petco Park: #2 least hitter-friendly ballpark.

- Reds have had a borderline top-10 bullpen this season.

- Weaver has racked up 16 Ks in 11.2 IP (31.4% kRate); Padres have a 26.0% kRate vs. RHPs (3rd highest).

- Possible “hangover” effect for the Padres after a two-game series in Mexico City at an extremely hitter-friendly ballpark.

Favorite SD Bats: Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Juan Soto | Bargain Bat: Matt Carpenter

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago Cubs vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

+ Cubs have been a top offense vs. LHPs: .286 AVG (8th), .364 wOBA (4th), .197 ISO (3rd), 128 wRC+ (2nd).

+ Nationals have had a bottom-10 bullpen this season.

+ A potential mid-game rain delay could knock Gore out early.

+ Cubs have 25 stolen bases this season (ranks 8th).

+ Cubs have been excellent on the road this season: .302 AVG, .374 wOBA, .862 OPS, 6.09 runs/gm.

-/+ Gore has been very good this season (3.00 ERA, 3.51 xFIP, 31.5% kRate, .281 opp wOBA), but he has struggled with walks (14.4% Walk Rate).

- Gore has exhibited strong reverse splits this season -- vs. RHBs: .165 AVG, .025 ISO, .211 wOBA, zero HRs allowed.

Favorite CHC Bats: Nico Hoerner, Cody Bellinger, Patrick Wisdom | Bargan Bat: Yan Gomes

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $6k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), CIN

3B Matt Chapman, TOR | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Corey Kluber (RHP), BOS

2B Nico Hoerner, CHC | DK: $4.9k, FD: $4k | vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

OF Alex Verdugo, BOS | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

3B Alex Bregman, HOU | DK: $4.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Ross Stripling (RHP), SF

1B Anthony Rizzo, NYY | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), CLE

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Cody Bellinger, CHC | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.8k | vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

2B/OF Whit Merrifield, TOR | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Corey Kluber (RHP), BOS

OF Jarren Duran, BOS | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

1B/OF LaMonte Wade Jr., SF | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k Luis Garcia (RHP), HOU

1B Joey Meneses, WAS | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), CHC

OF Alex Call, WAS | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), CHC

1B/3B Matt Carpenter, SD | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), CIN

3B/OF Nick Senzel, CIN | DK: $2.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Blake Snell (LHP), SD

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

OF Alex Verdugo, BOS | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

Keep an eye out for the Home Run Calls tweet later today by following @LineStarApp!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Alex Verdugo MORE than 7.0 Hitter Fantasy Score

Whit Merrifield MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!

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