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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A true split slate is on the Wednesday schedule and seven games will make their way onto the evening main slate! Stay mindful that this slate will get underway a bit earlier than most main slates with contests locking at 6:35 ET. It’s an interesting slate as we’ll have a fairly solid selection of pitchers as well as some quality hitting/stack options. Here’s to it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• SF @ BOS (7:10 ET): Low-end chance of a few raindrops in the later innings. Cool temps with light winds blowing IN from right.

• CHC @ NYM (7:10 ET): 10 mph winds OUT to left.

• LAD @ ARI (9:40 ET): No bee delays expected.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD | DK: $9.6k, FD: $9k | @ ARI

After an underwhelming MLB debut, Yamamoto has settled in nicely and, over his last five starts (27.0 IP), he has procured a 2.00 ERA, 2.48 xFIP, 0.93 WHIP, .198 opp AVG, and 32.7% kRate. Yamamoto has specialized in a primary three-pitch mix that has featured the four-seam fastball, curveball, and split finger. That bodes well for his match-up today -- against that three-pitch mix (from RHPs), the D-Backs are hitting for just a .210 AVG, .296 wOBA, and they rank 26th in xwOBA. The D-Backs are sputtering against RHPs in general lately -- their 70 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks checks in at 26th in the MLB and, while they haven’t been a super strikeout-prone offense, they have provided a moderate 22.5% kRate to righties in that same span. If Yamamoto cuts down on the barreled balls allowed (nine barreled balls L30Days, bottom 5th percentile), then he should be in a position to cruise through another quality outing tonight.

Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.7k | vs. SF

This Red Sox starting rotation has been surprisingly dominant this season and Kutter Crawford has played as big of a role as any other guy. He heads into his seventh start of his 2024 campaign boasting a 1.35 ERA, 3.89 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, and 24.6% kRate while allowing a slate-low 26.1% HardHit%, which ranks 3rd among all MLB starters. The Giants offense that he’ll be up against just isn’t much of an imposing force. San Francisco has failed to plate more than four runs in 22 of their 30 games this season. Against Crawford’s three primary pitches (cutter, four-seamer, sweeper), the Giants are hitting for a .228 AVG, which ranks 23rd in the MLB. The Giants are another offense that doesn’t necessarily strike out a ton, but they do head into tonight’s game with a lofty 26.6% kRate over the last week which is paired with an underwhelming 77 wRC+. Fenway Park is not a great pitcher’s park but the cool temps and light winds blowing in tonight will make it a bit more difficult for hitters to get anything over the green monster or out over the wall in right field. A quality start (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) with around 5-to-7 Ks should be a realistic expectation out of Crawford tonight.

Luis Gil (RHP), NYY | DK: $7.8k, FD: $7.8k | @ BAL

We’ll look to take another shot on Luis Gil despite the fact that he’ll be facing a tough Orioles offense. Gil continues to boast an elite 32.4% kRate, which leads the slate and ranks 6th among all MLB starters (min. 20.0 IP). Gil has also done an excellent job at limiting hard contact with a 26.4% HardHit% this season, which also ranks 6th among all MLB starters. As noted in previous newsletters, the obvious hang-up with Gil this season has been his absurdly high 17.6% Walk Rate. But there is some good news on that front. Gil walked two batters in his last start, which is the first start that he’s walked less than three batters in a game this season. And, while the Orioles offense is dangerous, they rank dead last in the MLB with a 6.3% Walk Rate vs. RHPs. Like most offenses on this slate, the O’s don’t strike out a ton (21.0% kRate vs. RHPs) but Gil will still have a pathway to around 6-to-8 Ks and, if he keeps the walks under control, he’s a strong upside target out of the lower price range on this slate.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Shota Imanaga (LHP), CHC | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.3k | @ NYM

Corbin Burnes (RHP), BAL | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.6k | vs. NYY

Jose Butto (RHP), NYM | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.2k | vs. CHC

Roddery Munoz (RHP), MIA | DK: $6.5k, FD: $5.5k | vs. COL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Texas Rangers vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

+ Rangers: 5.0 implied runs (ranks 1st on the slate).

+ Trevor Williams has maintained a strong 2.70 ERA through five starts this season but his middling 4.11 xFIP indicates some regression is due.

+ In 44 PA vs. Williams, the Rangers are hitting .275 with a .345 wOBA, .175 ISO, and 15.9% kRate.

+ The Rangers have posted a .197 ISO vs. RHPs L2Weeks (ranks 2nd in MLB).

+ Globe Life Field has ranked as the #10 home run ballpark in 2024.

-/+ The Nationals have had an “okay” bullpen this season: 4.00 ERA, 3.83 xFIP, 1.48 WHIP, 0.77 HR/9 Rate.

- Even though he is more of a “five and dive” type of starter, Trevor Williams has been effective this season and his 2.70 ERA is held up by a strong 3.00 xERA and he has yet to surrender a home run in 2024.

Favorite TEX Bats: Adolis Garcia, Evan Carter, Corey Seager

Bargain Bat; Nathaniel Lowe

Boston Red Sox vs. Starter TBD (RHP Daulton Jefferies or Bullpen Game)

+ Red Sox: 4.6 implied runs (ranks T-5th on the slate).

+ With Blake Snell on the IL, the Giants will elect to either hand Daulton Jefferies a spot start or rely on their bullpen.

+ If Jefferies is the starter, he was lit up by the Padres back on 3/31, giving up 5 ER on nine hits (two home runs) across just 2.0 IP -- he has put up so-so numbers across 18.1 IP in Triple-A this season: 3.44 ERA, 5.30 xFIP, and 22.7% kRate.

+ The Giants bullpen has not been great this season: 5.37 ERA (4th worst in MLB), 4.12 xFIP, 1.39 WHIP, and 1.21 HR/9 Rate.

+ The Red Sox have been a top-five offense L2Weeks: .280 AVG (3rd), .806 OPS (3rd), .356 wOBA (3rd), .175 ISO (6th), and 125 wRC+ (4th).

- Not the best hitting conditions at Fenway Park this evening.

- Boston’s 25.5% kRate is the 5th highest in MLB.

Favorite BOS Bats: Tyler O’Neill, Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran

Bargain Bat: Wilyer Abreu

Update: LHP Erik Miller will serve as the Giants’ opener tonight and Daulton Jefferies is expected to follow him and serve as the bulk reliever.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Colorado Rockies vs. Roddery Munoz (RHP), MIA

+ Every Rockies hitter has a ≤ 5% pOwn%.

+ Munoz had an impressive MLB debut back on 4/20 (@ CHC, 5.0 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 7 K), however, both of his hits allowed were home runs.

+ Munoz has not been effective across 15.1 IP in Triple-A this season: 8.62 ERA, 8.41 xFIP, 1.79 WHIP, 11.7% kRate, 2.30 HR/9 Rate -- in general, home runs have plagued Munoz over his last couple of seasons in the minor leagues.

+ The Marlins have had a bottom-10 bullpen this season: 4.77 ERA, 4.24 xFIP, and 1.51 WHIP.

- This is still a bad Rockies offense and they’re outside the confines of their hitter-friendly home ballpark.

- The Rockies vs. RHPs: 81 wRC+ (4th worst) and 27.4% kRate (4th highest).

Favorite COL Bats: Ryan McMahon, Brenton Doyle, Elias Diaz

Bargain Bat: Brendan Rodgers

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Juan Soto, NYY | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Corbin Burnes (RHP), BAL

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Luis Gil (RHP), NYY

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4k | vs. Justin Verlander (RHP), HOU

2B Jose Altuve, HOU | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4k | vs. Triston McKenzie (RHP), CLE

SS CJ Abrams, WAS | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX

OF Tyler O’Neill, BOS | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Giants Bullpen/Daulton Jefferies (RHP), SF

OF Jazz Chisholm Jr., MIA | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), COL

C Will Smith, LAD | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), ARI

1B Christian Walker, ARI | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD

3B Ryan McMahon, COL | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Roddery Munoz (RHP), MIA

OF JD Martinez, NYM | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Shota Imanaga (LHP), CHC

OF Evan Carter, TEX | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Wilyer Abreu, BOS | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Giants Bullpen/Daulton Jefferies (RHP), SF

1B Nathaniel Lowe, TEX | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

OF Bryan De La Cruz, MIA | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), COL

3B/SS Josh Smith, TEX | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

OF Mike Tauchman, CHC | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jose Butto (RHP), NYM

2B Thairo Estrada, SF | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

OF Rob Refsnyder, BOS | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3k | vs. vs. Giants Bullpen/Daulton Jefferies (RHP), SF

OF Andy Pages, LAD | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), ARI

OF Jacob Young, WAS | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX

C Victor Caratini, HOU | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Triston McKenzie (RHP), CLE

3B Nick Senzel, WAS | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX

3B/SS Vidal Brujan, MIA | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), COL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto MORE than 28.5 Pitcher Fantasy Score

Tyler O’Neill MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!