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Top DFS Offers 4/9/23 💸

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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

There will be no shortage of MLB action today. All 30 teams play at some point today with 11-of-15 games landing on the Tuesday main slate. There are about a million ways to go about attacking this thing and, while a slate of this size can sometimes seem a bit overwhelming, the beauty of an 11-game slate is that you really don’t need to worry too much about ownership. We’ll still see some highly-owned Coors Field bats and there will be a handful of pitchers that many will naturally gravitate toward but, even if you do take on a bit of the chalk, it’s so easy to differentiate your lineups elsewhere when there are 22 teams to choose from. On the weather front, we may see rain come into play in a couple of spots but, at this time, no postponements should be expected. Here’s to an entertaining and profitable night of baseball! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• MIA @ NYY (7:05 ET): 10 mph winds blowing IN from right.

• NYM @ ATL (7:20 ET): Rain moves through the ATL area in the afternoon and into the evening. There is a good chance that we’ll see some sort of delay here, or perhaps they can play through some of the lighter stuff. A postponement cannot be 100% ruled out but it would be a surprise. Check the outlook here closer to 7:00 ET to see how things are shaping up.

• LAD @ MIN (7:40 ET): Scattered showers in the area. It’s unlikely one will make its way over the ballpark but, if it does, expect a brief delay.

• ARI @ COL (8:40 ET): 10 mph winds blowing IN from left.

• TB @ LAA (9:38 ET): 10 mph winds blowing OUT to center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.6k | @ STL

It shouldn’t be too difficult to find value on a slate of this size so spending up on a top arm should be quite doable. Wheeler is off to a nice start to his 2024 campaign. He has faced two quality offenses (ATL & CIN) and has come away with a 0.75 ERA, 2.19 xFIP, 0.75 WHIP, and 31.3% kRate across 11.0 IP. Wheeler has also forced an impressive 18.7% SwStr%, which leads all pitchers on this slate. He’ll be pitching in his first road game of the season, but Wheeler proved to be even more effective in away games last season, where his ERA was nearly a run lower than his home ERA. His road WHIP, xFIP, kRate, and HR/9 Rate were all slightly improved on the road as well. Wheeler will take on a Cardinals offense that ranks bottom 10 versus RHPs in the following categories: wOBA, ISO, OPS, wRC+, and kRate (26.9% -- 6th highest). Wheeler’s last four starts against the Cardinals have also gone off without a hitch: 29.0 IP, 0.62 ERA, .133 opp AVG, .156 opp wOBA, 0.62 WHIP, and 28.2% kRate. After throwing 93 pitches in his last start, Wheeler should essentially be fully stretched out and ready to flirt with a 100-pitch count if things are going smoothly.

Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.5k | vs. OAK

Eovaldi can be a bit volatile at times, but he has the sort of upside that could result in him posting the highest fantasy score of any pitcher on the entire slate. He threw 103 pitches across seven innings in his last start so he’s already capable of handling a full workload. Oakland hasn’t been a complete pushover as their 85 wRC+ vs. RHPs ranks them 21st, but their 26.7% kRate ranks as the 7th highest in baseball and they’re hitting righties at a low .211 AVG. Through two starts, Eovaldi has a barely-above-average 23.9% kRate but he has created a strong 14.1% SwStr%. Generally, you can double a pitcher’s swinging strike rate and that’s about where their kRate should be, so Eovaldi will likely trend closer toward a 28% kRate if he maintains that sort of SwStr%. We should also take into account that he has faced the Cubs (19.6% kRate vs. RHPs) and Rays (22.8% kRate vs. RHPs) -- two teams that aren’t overly strikeout-prone. Eovaldi has also switched over to using the split-finger as his lead pitch, and he’s generating a superb 36.2% Whiff% on that pitch. Finally, it’s a small 36 PA sample size, but against the current OAK roster, Eovaldi has allowed a .156 opp AVG, .220 opp wOBA, and acquired a ridiculous 41.7% kRate. Eovaldi isn’t cheap but his DFS salaries are certainly reasonable when considering the type of fantasy score he could provide this evening.

Cole Ragans (LHP), KC | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.9k | vs. HOU

If you really want to go against the grain today, Cole Ragans should make for an excellent GPP target. Ragans will be a popular DFS option when he faces a lesser opponent, but I expect for much of the field to shy away from him due to this match-up with the Astros today. Ragans had a breakout second half last season last year and, since taking over as a full-time starter on July 15th, 2023, he has posted some monster numbers: 14 starts, 84.0 IP, 2.46 ERA, 3.23 xFIP, 1.05 WHIP, .187 opp AVG, 0.40 HR/9 Rate, and 31.4% kRate. Ragans has posted a slate-best 33.3% kRate through two starts this season while creating a 17.0% SwStr%, which trails only the aforementioned Zack Wheeler on the slate. The Astros only have a 16.1% kRate in 124 PAs vs. LHPs this season, but they also rank 20th in AVG, 14th in wOBA, 16th in OPS, and 12th in wRC+ against LHPs, so they haven’t necessarily been dominant against southpaw pitching. He’s far from the safest play today, but there is a pathway to success for Ragans this evening and I’d say it’s more likely than not that he’ll turn in a strong six-plus innings of work despite the fairly tricky match-up.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Tyler Glasnow (RHP), LAD | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10k | @ MIN

Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI | DK: $8.4k, FD: $10.2k | @ COL (DK Preferred)

Reynaldo Lopez (RHP), ATL | DK: $8k, FD: $7.2k | vs. NYM (Monitor weather)

Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF | DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.9k | vs. WAS

Ben Brown (RHP), CHC | DK: $4k, FD: $5.7k | @ SD (DK GPP Punt Play)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

Non-Coors Stacks

Texas Rangers vs. Alex Wood (LHP), OAK

+ Rangers: 5.0 implied runs (ranks 2nd among non-Coors teams).

+ Alex Wood has struggled through two starts (both at home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark): 9.72 ERA, 4.54 xFIP, 1.92 WHIP, 92.0 mph average exit velo (bottom 10th percentile), and 50.0% HardHit%.

+ The Rangers only have 63 PA vs. LHPs this season, but they’ve ranked 3rd with a 136 wRC+,

+ Wood exclusively throws a three-pitch mix of sinkers, sliders, and changeups -- against that pitch mix (from LHPs), the Rangers own a .417 AVG, .438 wOBA, and a low 13.8% kRate.

+ Globe Life Field ranks as the #4 most hitter-friendly park in 2023 and the #1 overall home run ballpark.

-/+ The OAK bullpen has put up a strong 2.88 ERA this season but their 4.59 xFIP (9th worst) suggests regression is due.

- The Rangers have a subpar .130 ISO vs. LHPs this season (ranks 17th).

Favorite TEX Bats: Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien, Wyatt Langford

Bargain Bat: Jonah Heim

New York Yankees vs. AJ Puk (RHP), MIA

+ Yankees: 4.5 implied runs (ranks 6th among non-Coors teams).

+ Yankees vs. LHPs this season (123 PA): .284 AVG (5th), .776 OPS (10th), .357 wOBA (7th), and 137 wRC+ (2nd).

+ Transitioning Puk from reliever to starter has not gone well through his two starts: 9.00 ERA, 7.41 xFIP, and 2.83 WHIP through 6.0 IP.

+ MIA has had a bottom-10 bullpen: 5.69 ERA, 4.39 xFIP, .276 opp AVG, and 1.61 WHIP.

+ Yankee Stadium was the #3 home run ballpark in 2023.

- The Yankees have yet to generate much power against lefties -- their .098 ISO vs. LHPs ranks 25th.

- 10 mph winds will be blowing in from right field at Yankee Stadium so home runs may be a bit more difficult to come by.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Anthony Volpe

Bargain Bat: Jon Berti

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Los Angeles Angels vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), TB

+ Every Angels hitters has a ≤ 10% pOwn%.

+ Civale has been great through his two starts (1.50 ERA, 3.20 xFIP, 0.92 WHIP, 31.3% kRate), however, his 8.1% SwStr% indicates he’s overachieving in his kRate. Civale is also allowing a high 46.4% FlyBall Rate and 10 mph winds are blowing out to center in the ballpark tonight.

+ Civale has thrown either cutters or sinkers on over 60% of his pitches -- against those pitch types (from RHPs), the Angels rank 10th in xwOBA and have a low 14.4% kRate.

+ If the Angels can knock Civale off the mound early, they’ll face a Rays bullpen that has been arguably the worst in the MLB: 7.36 ERA, 5.69 xFIP, 5.26 SIERA, 1.81 WHIP, 1.56 HR/9 Rate.

+ Angel Stadium was the #6 home run ballpark in 2023.

- The Angels are hitting for just a .221 AVG, .297 wOBA, and 92 wRC+ vs. RHPs this season.

- Angels: 4.1 implied runs (T-7th lowest on the slate).

Favorite LAA Bats: Mike Trout, Taylor Ward, Logan O’Hoppe

Bargain Bat: Mickey Moniak

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.1k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Louie Varland (RHP), MIN

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. AJ Puk (LHP), MIA

1B Matt Olson, ATL | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), NYM

1B Bryce Harper, PHI | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), STL

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Ben Brown (RHP), CHC

OF Mike Trout, LAA | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), TB

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Cole Ragans (LHP), KC

OF Adolis Garcia, TEX | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Alex Wood (LHP), OAK

3B Isaac Paredes, TB | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

OF Lane Thomas, WAS | DK: $4.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

3B Ryan McMahon, COL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

OF Seiya Suzuki, CHC | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Joe Musgrove (RHP), SD

OF Jung Hoo Lee, SF | DK: $4.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Joan Adon (RHP), WAS

OF Brandon Nimmo, NYM | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Reynaldo Lopez (RHP), ATL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

C Logan O’Hoppe, LAA | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), TB

1B/OF Lamonte Wade Jr., SF | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Joan Adon (RHP), WAS

C Jonah Heim, TEX | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Alex Wood (LHP), OAK

OF Jarred Kelenic, ATL | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), NYM

C Luis Campusano, SD | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Ben Brown (RHP), CHC

OF MJ Melendez, KC | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU

OF Jake McCarthy, ARI | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

OF Brandon Marsh, PHI | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), STL

OF Jackson Merrill, SD | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Ben Brown (RHP), CHC

OF Mickey Moniak, LAA | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), TB

3B Josh Smith, TEX | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Alex Wood (LHP), OAK

3B Abraham Toro, OAK | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX

3B Davis Wendzel, TEX | DK: $2k, FD: N/A | vs. Alex Wood (LHP), OAK

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No PrizePicks plays from me today but Tyler & Shannon have ya covered with some great suggestions in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter.

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!