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Top DFS Offers 4/8/23 💸

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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A loaded baseball Monday will feature 26 teams stepping on the diamond throughout the day, and this evening’s main slate will consist of a hefty nine-game slate. We’ve got Coors Field in play, some solid depth at pitcher, and eight teams that currently own at least a 4.8 implied run total. On the weather front, it looks like we’ll only have one game that we’ll need to keep an eye on as well. This should be a fun night of baseball! The men’s college basketball championship is tonight, it’s officially Masters week, and we’ve got NBA/NHL playoffs right around the corner so it’s a great time for sports fans! Best of luck this evening and don’t go blind staring up at the eclipse today!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• NYM @ ATL (7:20 ET): Temps around 70 degrees with light winds blowing IN from center. Normally this wouldn’t be an overly notable forecast, but it is probably some of the best outdoor hitting conditions we’ve seen thus far in the season.

• LAD @ MIN (7:40 ET): As alluded to in the intro, this will be the one game to monitor today. Showers are expected in Minnesota this evening but there is a moderate chance that the ballpark will avoid the worst of it. It’s more likely than not that they’ll be able to get this game in, but the chance for a delay is fairly high and a postponement can’t be completely ruled out at this time. I’ll be keeping guys from this game in play for now, but be sure to run a forecast check closer to 7:00 ET.

• TB @ LAA (9:38 ET): Mid-60s temps with 10+ mph winds blowing OUT to center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL | DK: $10k, FD: $10k | vs. NYM

A strong case can be made for spending all the way up on reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell as he makes his Giants debut at home against the Nationals tonight. Since he didn’t join his new team until March 18th, Snell has been stretching out his arm at extended Spring Training. He’s made a couple of minor league starts and also pitched in a simulated game last Wednesday. All reports indicate that he’s looking extremely sharp, however, like most pitchers making their first official start of the season, he likely won’t take on a full workload right away.

We’ll move the spotlight to the next most expensive pitcher on the board, Charlie Morton. I can’t say I’m a huge fan of the $10,000 price tag that Morton carries on both sites but, if anything, that should help keep his ownership in check. Morton looked sharp in his 2024 debut where he covered 5.2 innings on 91 pitches against the White Sox, allowing just three hits, two walks, and zero runs, while striking out six and earning the win -- good for 25.2 DKFP/41 FDFP. Morton preceded that outing with a strong Spring where he procured a 2.87 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, .207 opp AVG, and struck out 17 across 15.2 IP. He’ll be making his 2024 home debut tonight. Since the start of the 2021 season with the Braves, Morton has been highly effective in 47 starts at Truist Park: 261.1 IP, 3.31 ERA, 3.20 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, .215 opp AVG, and 30.3% kRate. He’ll be in an advantageous spot against a Mets offense that hasn’t been scaring anyone. In 255 PA against RHPs this season, the Mets are hitting .171 (ranks last) with a .519 OPS (last), 57 wRC+ (last), and a slightly above average 23.1% kRate (13th highest). Morton has plenty of experience pitching against this division rival and in 222 PA versus the current Mets roster, he possesses a 26.7% kRate, .222 opp AVG, and .296 opp wOBA. I have my concerns when it comes to Morton and how effective he can be long-term in his age 40 season. However, we can look to take some shots on him while the season is still young, especially when he’s at home as a heavy favorite (ATL: -214 ML odds) and facing an offense that has yet to get anything going against RHPs through their first nine games of the season.

Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.8k | @ COL

Rostering any Coors Field pitcher is always a risky investment, and I would’ve liked to have seen Gallen get a discount on FanDuel. As it stands now, DraftKings is where Gallen receives the largest Coors Field discount, which makes him an intriguing play on this slate at $8,200. While Gallen has yet to look overly sharp through his first two starts, he has allowed just one earned run through his 11.0 IP and he held this same Rockies lineup to just three hits over five innings back on Opening Day. Gallen has also fared very well in six previous starts at Coors Field where, across 37.0 IP, he has come away with a 2.43 ERA, 2.57 xFIP, 0.92 WHIP, .231 opp wOBA, and 28.4% kRate while allowing just two home runs (0.50 HR/9 Rate). Colorado currently ranks 24th with a 79 wRC+ versus RHPs this season to go along with a 26.0% kRate (7th highest). The D-Backs will also step into Coors Field as heavy -175 ML favorites. Again, the risk is fairly obvious, but we’re still not into the warm weather months just yet and cooler low-50s temps in Denver this evening will take some of the offensive upside away from Coors Field hitters. Gallen will be worthy of some shares today, particularly on DraftKings.

Spencer Turnbull (RHP), PHI | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.7k | @ STL

I’m interested to see if Spencer Turnbull can build upon his impressive Phillies debut from last week. He went up against a quality Reds offense and was able to shut them down across his five innings, allowing just three hits, and zero earned runs, and he struck out seven which equated to a 36.8% kRate. Turnbull has never been known as an overpowering, high-strikeout pitcher -- he owns just a 21.5% career kRate. However, he racked up 12 Ks across 8.0 IP during the Spring and clearly got off to a nice start with those seven Ks last Tuesday. Turnbull pitched just 31.0 innings across seven starts while working his way back from Tommy John surgery last season. We’ve seen plenty of pitchers come back stronger and with better ‘stuff’ following TJS and, now that he has had a full off-season to prepare, perhaps Turnbull will take a step forward in 2024. The Cardinals have been a bottom-10 offense versus RHPs (81 wRC+, ranks 21st) and their 27.1% kRate is currently the 3rd highest in baseball. So, if you’re looking for a cheaper arm with some decent K upside, Turnbull may be your guy today.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Blake Snell (LHP), SF | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.5k | vs. WAS

Zach Eflin (RHP), TB | DK: $9k, FD: $8.8k | @ LAA

Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR | DK: $7.1k, FD: $9.6k | vs. SEA (DK Preferred)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

Non-Coors Stacks

Atlanta Braves vs. Julio Teheran (RHP), NYM

+ While this does seem like a pretty obvious stack, Coors Field being in play, combined with high hitter salaries, should drive down the Braves ownership -- only two Braves hitters have a double-digit pOwn%.

+ Braves: 5.5 implied runs (ranks 1st among non-Coors teams).

+ Against RHPs this season (216 PA), the Braves rank 1st in each of the following metrics: .342 AVG, .997 OPS, .432 wOBA, .266 ISO, and 167 wRC+. Their 19.0% kRate vs. RHPs is also the 8th lowest.

+ This will be Teheran’s first official start of the season but in 2023, he leaned primarily on two pitches -- sinker and cutter. Against those two pitch types from RHPs this season, the Braves are hitting .407 with a .487 wOBA and .296 ISO.

+ Truist Park was the 6th best hitter’s park in 2023 and the Braves ranked second with 5.81 runs/gm scored at home.

- The Mets bullpen has been fairly decent: 3.44 ERA, 4.07 xFIP, 1.28 WHIP, .214 opp AVG, 26.9% kRate.

- Core ATL bats are very expensive, as usual.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna

Bargain Bat: Jarred Kelenic

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

+ Phillies: 4.8 implied runs (ranks T-5th among non-Coors teams).

+ Admittedly, the Phillies have been poor against RHPs thus far, ranking 28th with a 71 wRC+ while hitting for just a .183 AVG. However, they’ve also had an MLB-worst .209 BABIP vs. RHPs, so they have been the victim of some bad luck and some strong defensive play.

+ Since the beginning of 2023, Mikolas has posted a low 15.9% kRate to go with a 4.5% BB%, so he’s going to allow plenty of contact.

+ In 145 PA versus the current Phillies roster, Mikolas owns a .304 opp xBA, .361 opp xwOBA, and a 17.2% kRate.

+ Busch Stadium was the #5 best hitter’s park in 2023.

- The Cardinals have received some solid innings out of their bullpen, which currently owns the 4th best xFIP (3.39).

- As mentioned, the Phillies have been nothing special versus RHPs thus far and it’s possible their offensive struggles may continue.

Favorite PHI Bats: Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner

Bargain Bat: Brandon Marsh

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Francisco Giants vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

+ 8-of-9 Giants hitters in the projected lineup currently own a < 5% pOwn%.

+ It’s a fairly small 58 PA sample size but, against Trevor Williams, the current Giants roster has a .331 xBA, .415 xwOBA, and a 19.0% kRate.

+ The Washington bullpen has posted the 3rd highest walk rate (14.5%) and 7th highest WHIP (1.57).

+ The entire Giants lineup is extremely affordable.

- The Giants' offense has not been great against RHPs: .214 AVG, .631 OPS, .286 wOBA, 81 wRC+.

- Oracle Park was the #2 least hitter-friendly park in 2023.

Favorite SF Bats: Michael Conforto, Jorge Soler, LaMonte Wade Jr.

Value Bat: Patrick Bailey

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX

2B Ketel Marte, ARI | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

OF Mike Trout, LAA | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Zach Eflin (RHP), TB

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

1B Yandy Diaz, TB | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Tyler Andrerson (LHP), LAA

2B Marcus Semien, TEX | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU

OF Nolan Jones, COL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

SS Bo Bichette, TOR | DK: $4.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Julio Teheran (RHP), NYM

OF Ian Happ, CHC | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Yu Darvish (RHP), SD

SS Carlos Correa, MIN | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), LAD

OF Jorge Soler, SF | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Michael Conforto, SF | DK: $4k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

OF Randal Grichuk, ARI | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

2B Nolan Gorman, STL | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Spencer Turnbull (RHP), PHI

OF Brendan Donovan, STL | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Spencer Turnbull (RHP), PHI

OF Jarred Kelenic, ATL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Julio Teheran (RHP), NYM

C Logan O’Hoppe, LAA | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Zach Eflin (RHP), TB

OF Harold Ramirez, TB | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

C Jonah Heim, TEX | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU

1B/OF LaMonte Wade Jr., SF | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

OF Jackson Merrill, SD | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

OF Richie Palacios, TB | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

C Christian Vazquez, MIN | DK: $3k, FD: $2.3k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), LAD

SS Jose Caballero, TB | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

3B Kyle Farmer, MIN | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.1k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), LAD

1B Michael Busch, CHC | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Yu Darvish (RHP), SD

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Austin Riley MORE than 0.5 Runs

Michael Conforto MORE than 6.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!