Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Happy Friday! We’ve got a loaded day of baseball happening and, for anyone dabbling in the afternoon slates, good luck to ya! Our attention will turn toward the modest five-game slate waiting on deck for this evening. On the surface, it’s looking like a fairly balanced slate between pitching and hitting/stack options. With a Coors Field match-up on the slate, I imagine the most popular route to take will be to roster one (or on DK, maybe both) of the top two arms (Woodruff and/or Kershaw), find two or three worthy value bats, and jam in as many Coors Field bats as possible. Maybe that plan works out, maybe not. Anyone who has played MLB DFS for a little while knows how often the Coors Field strategy can backfire, especially when the visiting team isn’t a very good offense. Nonetheless, we’ll be looking to cover as many angles as possible on this small slate. Let’s have some fun and best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

SD @ ATL (7:20 ET): This will be the lone weather concern of the evening. There is going to be at least a slight chance of a postponement in Atlanta. Temps will be cooler, in the mid-50s, with 15 mph winds blowing a bit out to right, a bit left to right. The real issue is the likelihood of rain in the forecast. The timing and severity of the precipitation will determine if they decide to play this one or not. I’m no meteorologist so I can’t give a real opinion on whether I believe they’ll play or not. Fortunately, this is the first game on the slate so if an early PPD is announced, then we should know before the slate begins. For now, I’ll keep hitters in play for this game but pitchers will have some added risk. Make sure to monitor this forecast leading up to first pitch!

LAD @ ARI (9:40 ET): The Chase Field roof is scheduled to be open tonight. Temps in Phoenix will be in the 70s during the game.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Quick Note on Pitching: During the initial portion of the season, not many starting pitchers are going to be throwing a full workload unless otherwise noted by the team’s manager (and even then, that’s not information we can fully trust). This makes spending up on pitching a bit riskier in the early goings.

Clayton Kershaw (LHP), LAD | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.8k | @ ARI

We only have 10 starting pitchers to choose from on this small slate and the weather in Atlanta may knock that number down to eight. It’s far from sneaky, but spending up on a guy like Kershaw seems like a logical move -- and if you’re worried about his high ownership, simply differentiate with your hitters. A pitcher facing the same team in back-to-back starts can be a bit worrisome, but those concerns are muted a bit when we’re talking about a crafty veteran like Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw needed just 76 pitches across 6.0 IP to rack up nine strikeouts against the D-Backs in his season debut. In 190 PA against the current D-Backs roster, Kershaw has posted a strong 30.0% kRate and a solid .310 opp wOBA. Arizona is struggling offensively to begin the season, posting a basement-dwelling .215 AVG, .265 wOBA, and 59 wRC+ in their 243 plate appearances. The one problem with Kershaw revolves around the limited pitch count that manager Dave Roberts tends to put on him. Kershaw got up to an 87-pitch count in his second start of the season last year so, if he reaches a similar pitch count tonight, he should be able to turn in another strong outing. Unsurprisingly, the Dodgers (-230) step in as the heaviest favorites on the slate as well.

Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.6k | vs. TOR

Pitching gets much dicier after you get past the two studs on the slate. Sandoval isn’t a cheap option, but when he is on, he can provide similar upside as Brandon Woodruff and Clayton Kershaw. That will make him an intriguing pivot today. Sandoval only pitched 5.0 innings in spring training, but he was solid there, supplying six Ks with a 1.80 ERA and 0.60 WHIP. He got most of his pre-season work in during the World Baseball Classic where he served as a top pitcher for Mexico. In 7.1 IP in the WBC, he boasted a 1.23 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and .222 opp AVG with eight strikeouts. He threw five two-hit innings with a win in his season debut against Oakland, though he mustered just two strikeouts. He did hit an 86-pitch count in that game, which is encouraging for his workload going into his second start against Toronto tonight. The Blue Jays have a talented offense that can be fairly difficult to strike out, but in a small 33 PA sample size, Sandoval has held their current roster to a .115 AVG in previous meetings.

MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.8k | @ COL

Rolling with a Coors Field pitcher is always a risky proposition, but it is one way to “get different” on a small slate. Gore had a decent spring where he threw 23.2 innings and supplied 21 Ks (8.0 K/9) with a 1.39 WHIP. He held a potent Braves offense to just three hits and one run with six Ks across 5.1 IP and 93 pitches. His lone Coors Field start last year did not go over so well (4.0 IP, 9 H, 3 HR, 3 BB, 8 ER, 1 K). However, in their home opener, the Rockies mustered just one run versus Washington yesterday and in 43 PA versus LHPs this season, they’ve posted a meager 43 wRC+ and a 30.8% kRate. Gore is a talented young pitcher who has the ability to overcome the Coors Field factor. It’s risky, but he’s worth some consideration tonight.

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Brandon Woodruff (RHP), MIL | DK: $10k, FD: $10.5k | vs. STL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks:

Colorado Rockies vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

Washington Nationals vs. Jose Urena (RHP), COL

Non-Coors Stacks:

Atlanta Braves vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), SD

+ Braves: 5.1 implied runs.

+ Braves vs. RHPs (168 PA): .209 ISO (ranks 7th), 35.5% HardContact% (6th), 19.6% kRate (9th lowest).

+ Nick Martinez in 43 PA vs. ATL roster: .308 AVG, .457 wOBA, 14.3% kRate.

+ In 24.2 IP, the Padres bullpen is allowing a .304 AVG with a 1.58 WHIP, 1.82 HR/9, and 5.84 ERA.

- Bad weather threatens to make this game a PPD threat.

Favorite ATL Bats: Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies | Bargain Bat: Orlando Arcia

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI

+ Dodgers: 5.1 implied runs.

+ Dodgers will get to face Bumgarner for the second time within a week; racked up five runs in 4.0 IP against him last Saturday.

+ Bumgarners vs. Dodgers since 2020: 30.0 IP, 5.40 ERA, 6.14 xFIP, 2.40 HR/9 Rate, 13.7% kRate.

+ Dodgers in 42 PA vs. LHPs this season: .346 wOBA, .212 ISO, 117 wRC+.

+ D-Backs bullpen (26.0 IP this season) has allowed an MLB-worst nine HRs this season (3.12 HR/9) and is due for some significant regress after allowing an MLB-low .167 BABIP.

- Key Dodger bats are pricey.

Favorite LAD Bats: Will Smith, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman | Bargain Bat: James Outman

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP), STL

+ Brewers have some offense this year -- they’re currently a top 10 offense vs. RHPs (183 PA): .282 AVG, .355 wOBA, 119 wRC+.

+ Flaherty threw 5.0 scoreless innings, allowing zero hits, in his 2023 debut, but showed major control issues by issuing seven walks.

+ In 19.2 IP during the spring, Flaherty posted lackluster results: 5.95 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, and 6.9 K/9.

+ Flaherty 32% pOwn% (DraftKings) -- if the low-owned Brewers stack comes through, it’ll knock down a high-owned Flaherty.

+ Many of the Brewers' bats are very affordable and could help open up salary for one (or two) high-end pitchers or bigger bats elsewhere in lineups.

- Cardinals have a top-10 bullpen that has yet to allow a home run in 25.0 IP to go along with a strong 1.20 WHIP.

- At one point, Flaherty had ace-caliber stuff. Injuries derailed his career over the last couple of seasons. Should he all of a sudden regain his form, he’ll be a tough starter to face.

Favorite MIL Bats: Christian Yelich, Brian Anderson, Garrett Mitchell | Bargain Bat: Brice Turang

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Mike Trout, LAA | DK: $6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

C Will Smith, LAD | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

SS Xander Bogaerts, SD | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Jared Shuster (LHP), ATL

OF Kris Bryant, COL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.9k | vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

1B Matt Olson, ATL | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), SD

OF Christian Yelich, MIL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP), STL

1B/OF Joey Meneses, WAS | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), COL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

3B/SS Gio Urshela, LAA | DK: $4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

OF Jurickson Profar, COL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

3B/OF Brian Anderson, MIL | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP), STL

OF Lane Thomas, WAS | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), COL

3B Jeimer Candelario, WAS | DK: $2.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), COL

SS Orlando Arcia, ATL | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), SD

OF Garrett Mitchell, MIL | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP), STL

2B/SS Bruce Turang, MIL | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP), STL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Garrett Mitchell MORE than 0.5 Total Bases

Will Smith MORE than 1.5 Total Bases

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!