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Top DFS Offers 4/5/23 💸

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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

What better way to cap off the workweek than with a juicy seven-game MLB main slate!? Keep in mind that this slate will get underway at 6:40 ET. Overall, this sets up as one of the more balanced slates we’ve seen thus far in the new season. Multiple aces are taking the mound, there are quality arms out of the mid-range, a couple of intriguing value pitchers, and plenty of hitters/stacks in advantageous spots. We also shouldn’t have to worry about any major weather issues as well, which is a welcomed addition after dealing with several weather postponements and delays this week. Let’s have some fun! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• NYM @ CIN (6:40 ET): A bit of light rain is in the forecast, but it should be on its way out by game time -- if not, it won’t be heavy enough to cause any major issues, perhaps just a brief delay at worst. Chilly temps in the low-40s with 5-10 mph winds blowing OUT to center.

• PHI @ WAS (6:45 ET): More cold temps in the 40s with 10 mph winds blowing left to right.

• ARI @ ATL (7:20 ET): Mid-50s temps with winds blowing OUT to left around 10 mph.

• CWS @ KC (7:40 ET): Low-50s temps with 5-10 mph winds blowing IN from right.

• BOS @ LAA (9:38 ET): Some late afternoon rain should be moving out by gametime. Stiff 20-25 mph winds blowing OUT to center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.8k | vs. SEA

We’ve got a few aces to choose from today if we’re feeling the desire to spend up on pitching. Freddy Peralta is one of said aces who is poised for a big night. He had a rocky Spring where he acquired a 7.20 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, and .333 opp AVG across 15.0 IP, but the strikeouts were still there (18 Ks). It’s important to remember that well-established pitchers often use Spring Training to work on some new things that they may or may not be implementing once the regular season actually begins. Whether that was the case with Peralta, or he just had some off-season rust to shake off, he looked perfectly fine in his first official start last Friday where he held the Mets to just a single solo home run and a walk across six innings (92 pitches) while racking up eight Ks along the way -- good for 30.3 DKFP/49 FDFP. Peralta will now make his 2024 home debut in his second start of the season and he was dominant on his home mound in 2023. A quick look at Peralta’s home/road splits from last season:

Home: 3.44 ERA, 2.85 xFIP, 0.94 WHIP, .182 opp AVG, 35.7% kRate

Road: 4.34 ERA, 4.09 xFIP, 1.32 WHIP, .246 opp AVG, 25.6% kRate

That 3.44 ERA was nothing spectacular but Peralta did have some bad luck with home runs and pitched much better than the ERA would indicate, evidenced by that excellent xFIP. But, what jumps out is the massive 35.7% kRate that Peralta procured at home. He’ll now take on a Mariners offense that is off to a sluggish start and currently owns the highest kRate versus RHPs this season (32.8%) while ranking 28th with a 63 wRC+. Peralta also throws either a four-seamer or slider on roughly 75% of his pitches. Against those two pitch types from RHPs this season, the Mariners own a league-high 39.8% kRate! I’ve stated before that I don’t believe the Mariners' offense will be this bad for long, but facing Peralta tonight doesn’t feel like the best spot for Seattle’s hitters to “figure it out.”

Hunter Greene (RHP), NYM | DK: $8.3k, FD: $10.3k | vs. NYM

This will be more of a DraftKings play where his $8,300 price tag makes him the 7th-most expensive pitcher on the slate, whereas he’s the second-priciest pitcher on FanDuel at $10,300. All you have to do to see how boom-or-bust Hunter Greene is is to scroll through his game logs from last season. He has tremendous strikeout upside thanks to a fastball that routinely hits triple digits and a slider that created a 39.2% Whiff% last season. That slider also created a 56.0% Whiff% in his start against Washington this past Saturday. He’ll throw those two pitch types almost exclusively, around 95% of the time. Against RHP sliders and four-seamers, the Mets are hitting for just a .152 AVG (ranks 28th) with a .231 wOBA (29th) and 28.0% kRate (7th highest). They also rank dead last vs. RHPs thus far with a putrid 46 wRC+. However, you may have to live with a home run or two given up from Greene with the trade-off being double-digit strikeout potential. Great American Ballpark was the #2 home run park in 2023 and Greene had an awful 2.68 HR/9 Rate at home last season. Fortunately, the cold temps will make hitting home runs more difficult at this time of the year and the Mets have only hit three home runs off of RHPs through six games. While Greene made it through just 4.2 innings in his first start, he also reached a 100-pitch count, so it seems that he’s already operating as a fully stretched-out pitcher. If you’re feeling a little bold this evening, Greene certainly checks off plenty of boxes when it comes to upside. Again, I’d mainly target him on DraftKings but his price will also keep his ownership down on FanDuel since many will just find the extra $500 to spend up on Strider or take the savings and go down to one of the other top pitchers like Peralta, Nola, or Gilbert.

Griffin Canning, LAA | DK: $7k, FD: $7.2k | vs. BOS

I can’t say I’m overly attached to the idea of spending down at pitcher today but Griffin Canning would be one of the guys I’ll be willing to take some shots on if I’m looking to load up on more expensive hitters. Canning had a rough start in Baltimore last week but we’ll see if he can bounce back at home this evening. By all means, he was rock-solid in 2023 (4.32 ERA, 3.82 xFIP, 1.24 WHIP, 25.9% kRate) and, by the end of the season, he was routinely priced in the $8k range on DraftKings and even got into the $9k range on FanDuel. Through seven games, Boston ranks bottom 10 offensively against RHPs in the following categories: wOBA, ISO, wRC+, and kRate (25.8%). There will be some strong 20-25 mph winds blowing toward the outfield in Anaheim tonight, which obviously isn’t ideal for pitching. However, Boston hasn’t hit a ton of fly balls thus far (37.0% FlyBall% vs. RHPs, ranks 15th) and they’ve posted a low 7.8% HR/FB Rate (ranks 22nd). It’s not a perfect spot, but Canning had the sort of upside to easily pay off these sorts of DFS salaries.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL | DK: $11k, FD: $10.8k | vs. ARI

Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI | DK: $9k, FD: $10.1k | @ WAS

Brady Singer (RHP), KC | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.2k | vs. CWS

Jose Quintana (LHP), NYM | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.6k | @ CIN

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

+ Corbin had a poor Spring (16.1 IP, 5.51 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, .309 opp AVG) and made it through just 4.1 innings in his 2024 debut against the Reds where he gave up seven hits (two HRs) and four ER while only striking out two hitters. He also allowed a 46.7% HardHit% and 93.3 mph average exit velo in that game.

+ In five starts against the Phillies since 2022, Corbin owns an 8.85 ERA, 6.56 xFIP, .379 opp AVG, .486 opp wOBA, 2.41 WHIP, 2.70 HR/9 Rate, and 8.2% kRate.

+ The Phillies may not be off to a blazing hot start against LHPs this season (104 wRC+, ranks 17th) but they match up well with Corbin’s primary pitch mix of sliders, sinkers, and cutters -- against that pitch mix (from LHPs), the Phillies are hitting .385 with a .444 wOBA.

+ Corbin may struggle to get through five innings, which leaves the potential for extra innings from a Nats bullpen that has been nothing special: 4.81 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, and 1.48 HR/9 Rate.

+ Phillies: 4.5 implied runs (ranks T-5th on the slate).

- A Phillies stack could be fairly popular tonight and four hitters currently have a double-digit pOwn%.

- The Phillies have posted just a .088 ISO and 26.7% HardContact% versus LHPs thus far in 2024.

Favorite PHI Bats: Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, JT Realmuto

Bargain Bat: Brandon Marsh

Texas Rangers vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

+ Rangers: 4.6 implied runs (ranks 4th on the slate).

+ The Rangers are off to a nice start against RHPs: .793 OPS (7th), .348 wOBA (7th), .191 ISO (6th), 129 wRC+ (3rd), and 40.9% HardContact% (1st).

+ While he pitched four shutout innings (88 pitches) against the Yankees last week, Brown was getting hit hard (54.6% HardHit%) and also created just a 6.8% SwStr%.

+ In 61 PA versus the current Rangers roster, Brown has posted a poor .333 opp AVG, .433 opp xwOBA, and a low 13.1% kRate.

+ Globe Life Field ranks as the #3 hitter’s park and #1 home run park in 2023.

+ The Rangers were the #1 home offense last season, averaging 5.85 runs/gm.

+ The Astros bullpen is off to a rough start: 6.00 ERA, 4.22 xFIP, 1.67 WHIP, and an MLB-worst 2.57 HR/9 Rate.

+ A Rangers stack may be fairly low-owned with 7-of-9 hitters in the projected lineup holding single-digit pOwn%.

- Brown had a strong Spring (17.0 IP, 2.12 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) and, as mentioned, he held a quality Yankees offense scoreless in his season debut… albeit across only four innings.

- Brown has been a bit of a road warrior, averaging +44.2% more FPPG away.

Favorite TEX Bats: Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien

Bargain Bat: Jared Walsh

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

+ Every hitter in the projected MIL lineup has a 6% pOwn% or lower.

+ The Brewers have been effective versus RHPs so far this season: .287 AVG (5th), .780 OPS (8th), .348 wOBA (6th), and 110 wRC+ (11th).

+ Gilbert is a solid all-around pitcher but he has shown the tendency to struggle on the road at times.

+ The Brewers have the 10th lowest kRate (20.0%) versus Gilbert’s primary pitches (sliders and four-seamers).

- Brewers: 4.1 implied runs (ranks 5th lowest on the slate).

- The Mariners bullpen has been lights out: 2.10 ERA, 3.35 xFIP, 0.94 WHIP, .202 opp AVG, and 0.70 HR/9 Rate.

Favorite MIL Bats: Christian Yelich, Willy Adames, Rhys Hoskins

Bargain Bat: Jackson Chourio

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), CWS

SS Trea Turner, PHI | DK: $6.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF Mike Trout, LAA | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

3B Austin Riley, ATL | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Tommy Henry (LHP), ARI

OF Adolis Garcia, TEX | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4k | vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

2B Jose Altuve, HOU | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Cody Bradford (LHP), TEX

1B Pete Alonso, NYM | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

OF Christian Yelich, MIL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

SS CJ Abrams, WAS | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI

OF Spencer Steer, CIN | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), NYM

OF Tyler O’Neill, BOS | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Chas McCormick, HOU | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Cody Bradford (LHP), TEX

3B Alec Bohm, PHI | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF Adam Duvall, ATL | DK: $4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Tommy Henry (LHP), ARI

SS Orlando Arcia, ATL | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Tommy Henry (LHP), ARI

OF Brandon Marsh, PHI | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF Nelson Velazquez, KC | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), CWS

1B/OF Jared Walsh, TEX | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

OF Jackson Chourio, MIL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

OF MJ Melendez, KC | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), CWS

C Francisco Alvarez, NYM | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

3B Trey Lipscomb, WAS | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Bobby Witt Jr. MORE than 1.5 Total Bases

Spencer Steer MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!