Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

The MLB action hits us early today with a nine-game slate getting underway at 1:05 ET! So we’ll get a quick newsletter in today in order to get it sent out in a timely manner. The slate is fairly pitcher-heavy so, in turn, we’re seeing a majority of these games holding low totals. We’ll see how that ultimately pans out! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

TB @ WAS (1:05 ET): Temps expected to hit 90 degrees during this game with winds blowing OUT to left/center at 10-15 mph.

PHI @ NYY (1:05 ET): Cool temps around 50 degrees with 10 mph winds blowing IN from center. Chance for some very light rain as well.

ATL @ STL (1:15 ET): Winds blowing OUT to center/right at 15-20 mph.

PIT @ BOS (1:35 ET): Very chilly with temps in the high-30s and winds blowing IN from center around 10 mph. Chance for some light off-and-on rain as well. It’ll be a pretty miserable game to be at and a notable downgrade for hitters.

SF @ CWS (2:10 ET): Rain is expected to clear by first pitch, though a brief late start may be in order. Strong 20+ mph crosswinds blowing right to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Quick Note on Pitching: During the initial portion of the season, not many starting pitchers are going to be throwing a full workload unless otherwise noted by the team’s manager (and even then, that’s not information we can fully trust). This makes spending up on pitching a bit riskier in the early goings.

Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY | DK: $9.8k, FD: $11.1k | vs. PHI

Typically, I’m not a fan of spending up on the priciest pitcher on a slate this early in a season, but Cole’s Opening Day performance versus the Giants was highly encouraging. He reached a pitch count of 95 while fanning 11 batters through six shutout innings. The cool temps and 10 mph winds blowing in from center field make this an excellent pitcher-friendly environment and that looks to be reflected in the slate-low 6.5 over/under. The Phillies are also underperforming out of the gates. In 120 PA versus RHPs, they have posted a middling .328 wOBA and 103 wRC+ to go along with a lofty 27.5% kRate -- one of the highest strikeout rates in the league through the first week of action.

Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9.4k | @ MIA

After spending his first five MLB seasons with the Marlins between 2018 and 2022, Pablo Lopez makes a quick return to his old stomping grounds in Miami. Lopez is another solid arm who came out of the gates with an impressive Opening Day performance. In his season debut versus the Royals, he reached an 85-pitch count and strung together 5.1 scoreless two-hit innings while striking out eight. Despite being the visiting pitcher, Lopez obviously has plenty of experience in loanDepot Park and historically he has pitched well in Miami. In 284.0 IP in this ballpark, Lopez has posted a career 3.45 ERA, 3.70 xFIP, 1.15 WHIP, .291 opp wOBA, and a 23.1% kRate. In 173 PA versus RHPs this season, the Marlins currently own the highest strikeout rate with a 32.4% kRate which is paired with a poor .276 wOBA and 71 wRC+ (ranks 25th). It all adds up to make Lopez stand out as an appealing mid-range option.

Grayson Rodriguez (RHP), BAL | DK: $4k, FD: N/A | @ TEX

We’ll get to see a highly anticipated MLB debut today. I’m not one to follow the top prospects too closely, but this guy is one player I’m well aware of. Grayson Rodriguez is the 7th overall MLB prospect (per MLB.com) and the #2 pitching prospect. The 23-year-old righty has some filthy stuff and in 14 starts in Triple-A last year, he boasted a 35.8% kRate, 2.20 ERA, 2.90 xFIP, 0.26 HR/9 Rate, and 0.93 WHIP. Unfortunately, he did not fare well in spring training -- across 15.1 IP, he came away with a 7.04 ERA and 1.57 WHIP, though he did still rack up plenty of strikeouts (19 Ks total, 11.2 K/9). The main point is that this is an elite talent, though he will have a tough task ahead of him debuting on the road against a fairly solid Rangers offense. He’s not available in the FanDuel player pool, but at just $4,000 on DraftKings, he’s worth some legitimate consideration as an SP2 candidate.

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Dylan Cease (RHP), CWS | DK: $9.1k, FD: $10.8k | vs. SFG

Shane McClanahan (LHP), TB | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.6k | @ WAS

Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU | DK: $8.1k, FD: $10k | vs. DET

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

+ Some of the best hitting conditions we’ve seen thus far in the early season; game time temps around 90 degrees with winds blowing out at 10-15 mph.

+ TB: 4.9 implied runs leads the slate.

+ Patrick Corbin: One of the lowest-quality starters in the MLB.

+ Corbin: In 2022, he posted just an 18% kRate, 1.70 WHIP, and allowed 1.59 HR/9 alongside a 44.6% HardHit%.

+ Corbin lasted just three innings versus the Braves on Opening Day, surrendering four runs on seven hits with a 50% HardHit%.

+ The Nationals bullpen has mustered just a 14.8% kRate and a 5.13 xFIP (6th worst)

+/- The Rays currently rank 2nd in the MLB with a 147 wRC+, though they have struggled in their limited plate appearances (68 total) versus LHPs: 74 wRC+ with a .271 wOBA and 26.5% kRate.

- Core Rays bats will likely command high ownership.

Favorite TB Bats: Randy Arozarena, Wander Franco, Yandy Diaz | Bargain Bat: Jose Siri

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

+ 15-20 mph winds blowing out to center/right in St. Louis today.

+ STL: 4.8 implied runs, ranks 2nd on the slate.

+ Bryce Elder is making just his 10th career MLB start.

+ Elder had some good appearances in spot starts last season, but comes into 2023 off of a poor spring training: 11.2 IP, 6.17 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and gave up three home runs.

+ The Cardinals are a notoriously difficult team to strike out and they’re currently one of the best offenses against right-handers early in the season: .342 AVG, .398 wOBA, 155 wRC+, 16.4% kRate.

- The Braves boast a strong bullpen and, across 19.2 IP, the ATL relievers have held opponents to a 1.37 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 24.1% HardContact%.

Favorite STL Bats: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Brendan Donovan | Bargain Bat: Nolan Gorman

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

New York Yankees vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI

+ Nola’s poor spring performance (13.1 IP, 6.75 ERA, 1.50 WHIP) seemed to carry over into the season opener against the Rangers where he lasted just 3.2 IP, allowing five runs on four hits and two walks.

+ Across 80 PA vs. Aaron Nola, the current Yankees roster has a .294 AVG and .416 wOBA.

+ In 149 PA vs. RHPs, the Yankees rank 4th in the MLB with a 138 wRC+.

+ The Phillies bullpen (19.1 IP) is off to a dreadful start in 2023: 8.84 ERA, 6.01 xFIP, 2.12 WHIP, 2.33 HR/9, .309 opp AVG.

- Less than ideal hitting conditions at Yankee Stadium today -- cool temps around 50 degrees with 10 mph winds blowing in from center.

- Ultimately, Aaron Nola is a top-end starter and could bounce back in a hurry today.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres | Bargain Bat: Josh Donaldson

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

1B Paul Goldschmidt, STL | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

3B Alex Bregman, HOU | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), DET

OF Bryan Reynolds, PIT | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Corey Kluber (RHP), BOS

SS Wander Franco, TB | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

1B Anthony Rizzo, NYY | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI

1B Nathaniel Lowe, TEX | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Grayson Rodriguez (RHP), BAL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

C Travis d’Arnaud, ATL | DK: $4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

3B Nolan Gorman, STL | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

3B/OF Bryan Anderson, MIL | DK: $3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

1B Triston Casas, BOS | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

SS Orlando Arcia, ATL | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

OF Jose Siri, TB | DK: $2.7k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF Garrett Mitchell, MIL | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.5k | vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

Home Run Call of the Day 💣

Note: There is no Home Run Call of the Day tweet today. It should return Friday when a normal slate time rolls around.

3B Alex Bregman, HOU | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), DET

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Pablo Lopez LESS than 4.5 Hits Allowed

Randy Arozarena MORE than 1.5 Total Bases

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!