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Top DFS Offers 4/4/23 💸

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No MLB videos today. Back on schedule tomorrow!

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s a rather quiet day in the MLB on this Thursday and, for the second day in a row, we’ll have a small slate to dissect. The Tigers and Mets are getting in an early double-header to make up for the two games that were postponed on Tuesday and Wednesday. And, outside of that, only four other match-ups are on the schedule today. Those four games will make up the DraftKings main slate while FanDuel will be excluding the lone evening game between the White Sox and Royals, bringing their main slate down to just three games. Be mindful of the early start time of 4:05 ET with this slate. We won’t always roll out a newsletter for these small, early main slates, but the 2024 MLB season is just a week old so I wanted to do my best to get something together for this one. To get this newsletter out ASAP, this will be a rather short write-up but let’s see if we can crack the code for this small slate! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

PIT @ WAS (4:05 ET): Some rain moves in during the afternoon but if they’re patient, they should be able to get away with a “delay and play” situation. It just depends on how long they’re willing to wait. A postponement can’t be totally ruled out, but we’ll proceed as if this game will play. Temps around 50 degrees with 10 mph winds blowing OUT to right.

CLE @ MIN (4:10 ET): Chilly mid-40s temps with 10 mph winds blowing left-to-right.

MIA @ STL (4:15 ET): Low-end chance for an early rain delay. Mid-40s temps with 15 mph winds blowing left-to-right, a bit OUT to right at times.

CWS @ KC (7:40 ET): >> DK Main Slate Only << More cold temps in the mid-to-upper 40s and 5-10 mph winds blowing IN from left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.6k | vs. CLE

Lopez is a borderline ace who may have had a rough Spring (14.0 IP, 7.07 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, .306 opp AVG) but he was able to shed the rust and turn in an excellent Opening Day performance against the Royals where a solo homer made up the only run damage he gave up across seven innings. It took Lopez just 84 pitches to make it through seven frames last Thursday and, thanks to an effective 17.9% SwStr% (swinging strike %), he was able to rack up seven Ks along the way. The Guardians are not a strikeout-heavy offense, and their 16.4% kRate vs. RHPs currently ranks as the 4th lowest mark in baseball. They’re also rocking a solid 120 wRC+ versus righties in the early goings of the season. However, Lopez has a primary pitch mix of four-seamers, changeups, and sliders, which makes up about 85% of his total pitches. Against that combined pitch mix from RHPs, the Guardians rank 26th with a .285 xwOBA. Lopez has a solid track record of working through six-plus innings regularly and, while strikeouts may be tough to come by in this match-up, we can still look for him to turn in a quality start this afternoon. The Twins are moderate -158 ML favorites in their 2024 home opener and the weather conditions in this game will provide an excellent pitching environment.

Lance Lynn (RHP), STL | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.5k | vs. MIA

It seems like forever ago when Lance Lynn looked like a certified ace. You’d have to go back to the 2021 season when Lynn turned in a 2.69 ERA, 3.82 xFIP, and 27.5% kRate across 28 starts (157.0 IP) while finishing third in AL Cy Young voting. He had a poor 2023 campaign but he was a victim of some bad luck as his 4.50 xFIP was over a run lower than his 5.73 ERA. His Spring Training wasn’t particularly inspiring (13.2 IP, 7.90 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, .255 opp AVG) but he did record 15 Ks in those 13.2 IP. He only made it through four innings on 70 pitches in his first official start in 2024 on Saturday, but he held a dominant Dodgers lineup scoreless in those four innings while giving up just four hits and a walk and striking out five. On a bigger slate, Lance Lynn probably wouldn’t be a go-to pick, but he sets up well on this small slate as he takes on a hapless Marlins offense. Miami is winless with an 0-7 record on the season and they’ll be playing their first road game of 2024 today. In 130 PA vs. RHPs this season, the Marlins rank bottom-five in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. They’ve hit just two homers against RHPs as well. Lance Lynn will be making his 2024 Cardinals home debut but he played his first six seasons in St. Louis. In 87 career games in Busch Stadium, Lynn has put up some gaudy numbers -- 2.85 ERA, 3.88 xFIP, 1.17 WHIP, .227 opp AVG, and 0.6 HR/9 Rate. If Lynn can increase his pitch count into the 80-90 range, we can look for him to come away with a serviceable outing against a Marlins offense that has yet to show any real firepower thus far. The Cardinals are also a -158 ML favorite so, if Lynn can make it through five-plus innings, he’ll have a good chance at earning a win bonus as well.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9k | @ MIN

Seth Lugo (RHP), KC | DK: $8.3k, FD: N/A | vs. CWS (DK Main Slate Only)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

+ Pirates: 4.6 implied runs (ranks T-1st on the slate).

+ The Pirates are off to a better-than-expected start offensively, currently ranking top 10 in AVG, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+.

+ Around 80% of Josiah Gray’s pitch mix consists of four-seamers, cutters, and curveballs -- against that RHP pitch mix, the Pirates are hitting .343 with a .439 wOBA, .257 ISO, and they rank 1st in MLB with a .478 xwOBA.

+ The Washington bullpen has struggled to begin the year: 5.49 ERA, .163 WHIP, and .280 opp AVG.

+ There are plenty of affordable bats in this PIT lineup.

- Much of the Pirates’ offensive success has come against LHPs.

- In a small 36 PA sample size, Josiah Gray has held the current Pirates roster to a .182 AVG, .277 wOBA, and 25.0% kRate.

Favorite PIT Bats: Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes

Bargain Bats: Connor Joe and Jack Suwinski

DraftKings Main Slate Only Stack

Kansas City Royals vs. Michael Soroka (RHP), CWS

Favorite KC Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, Maikel Garcia

Bargain Bat: Nelson Velazquez

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Minnesota Twins vs. Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE

+ 8-of-9 Twins hitters hold a < 10% pOwn%.

+ Bibee had a decent Spring, but was far from dominant, and he struggled against an awful Oakland A’s offense in his first start on Saturday (4.0 IP, 6 H, 5 BB, 3 ER, 5 K)

+ The Twins have four hitters in their lineup today who had at least a .228 ISO against RHPs in 2023 and six with at least a .329 wOBA.

-/+ The Guardians’ bullpen has put up some excellent surface stats thus far (1.44 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, .143 opp AVG, zero HRs allowed) but their 4.12 xFIP (ranks 15th) suggests some sizable regression is due.

- Bibee was sharp in 2023, which resulted in a 2.98 ERA across 142.0 IP, and his main issue against the A’s last Saturday was walks. He only had a 7.7% Walk Rate in 2023 and didn’t necessarily have an issue with them in the Spring (6 BB in 18.0 IP) so he could be in line for a bounce-back performance.

- The Twins offense is off to a slow start against RHPs this season, hitting just .189 (ranks 27th) with a .273 wOBA (24th) and 80 wRC+ (22nd).

Favorite MIN Bats: Byron Buxton, Alex Kirilloff, Edouard Julien

Bargain Bat: Willi Castro

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.3k, FD: N/A | vs. Michael Soroka (RHP), CWS (DK Main Slate Only)

SS Oneil Cruz, PIT | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $5.3k, FD: N/A | vs. Seth Lugo (RHP), KC (DK Main Slate Only)

OF Jazz Chisholm Jr., MIA | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), STL

1B Paul Goldschmidt, STL | DK: $5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), MIA

OF Lane Thomas, WAS | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), PIT

OF Byron Buxton, MIN | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE

2B Andres Gimenez, CLE | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.4k| vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B/OF Connor Joe, PIT | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

OF Nelson Velazquez, KC | DK: $3.8k, FD: N/A | vs. Michael Soroka (RHP), CWS (DK Main Slate Only)

OF Jack Suwinski, PIT | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

2B/3B Jared Triolo, PIT | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

OF MJ Melendez, KC | DK: $3.5k, FD: N/A | vs. Michael Soroka (RHP), CWS (DK Main Slate Only)

2B Edouard Julien, MIN | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE

1B/OF Alex Kirilloff, MIN | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE

OF Will Brennan, CLE | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN

OF Victor Scott II, STL | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2k | vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), MIA

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

No Home Run Calls today. Back at it with a normal slate on tap tomorrow!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No PrizePicks plays today!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!