Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Another loaded day of baseball lies ahead with an 11-game main slate stepping to the plate this evening. For some teams, their pitching rotation has flipped back to their top starter taking the mound for the second time this season while other squads are rolling out their fifth starter. As a result, the lines and run totals are all over the place today and we even have a couple of games with double-digit over/unders. It’s going to make for an interesting slate this evening, no doubt. Now, let’s all forget that I put the one-hit Rangers in the stack section yesterday and move on to bigger and better things today! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

TB @ WAS (7:05 ET): Temps near 80 degrees at first pitch.

PIT @ BOS (7:10 ET): Mid-40s temps with 5-10 mph winds blowing IN from center. Won’t be as easy to smash HRs out as yesterday, but still not a terrible spot for hitters at Fenway.

TOR @ KC (7:40 ET): Warmer temps (by early April standards) in the low-70s with strong winds blowing OUT to left around 25 mph! Very enticing spot for hitters.

ATL @ STL (7:45 ET): Low-70s with strong 20 mph winds blowing a bit right to left, but mostly OUT to left field.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Quick Note on Pitching: During the initial portion of the season, not many starting pitchers are going to be throwing a full workload unless otherwise noted by the team’s manager (and even then, that’s not information we can fully trust). This makes spending up on pitching a bit riskier in the early goings.

Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $9.9k, FD: $9.8k | vs. DET

We have a really strong “tier one” group of pitchers on this slate with five aces (or borderline aces) leading the way between Scherzer, Bieber, Urias, Valdez, and Castillo. A solid case can be made for any of those guys but Framber Valdez may have arguably the most factors working in his favor. Like the rest of those top-five pitchers, Valdez will be making his second start of the season so he may extend a bit further on his pitch count (he threw 85 pitches across 5.0 IP on Opening Day). He’s also at home where, traditionally, he pitches a bit better and averages +21.5% more FPPG. The Astros also step in as the heaviest favorites on the slate with -280 ML odds against the Detroit Tigers. And while the sample sizes from this season are still too small to fully trust, Detroit has been struggling mightily against southpaw pitching. It’s only a 54 at-bat sample, but so far the Tigers are hitting just .130 against LHPs to go along with a .180 wOBA, .093 ISO, .175 OBP, 9 wRC+, and a lofty 36.8% kRate. The last time Valdez stepped up to the mound against Detroit, he threw a complete game shutout and tallied eight Ks on 107 pitches. The Astros aren’t going to let him toss 100+ pitches in the second start of the season, but this is a team that a pitcher of Valdez’s caliber should dominate.

Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.1k | vs. LAA

We’ll stick to this top tier and highlight another elite arm making his second 2023 start in Luis Castillo. Against the Guardians on Opening Day, Castillo needed just 76 pitches to clear six full innings of one-hit work while posting six strikeouts -- which is a solid strikeout total considering Cleveland projects (and currently is) to be one of the lower strikeout teams in the MLB. Half of the battle, when facing the Angels, is simply surviving against the two-headed monster of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani -- otherwise, the rest of their lineup can be overpowered by a pitcher of Castillo’s ability. And, for what it’s worth, Vegas is spotting the Angels just 3.3 implied runs tonight in T-Mobile Park, which rated out as the #1 pitcher’s park in 2022. In 50 PA versus the current Angels roster, Castillo has limited them to a .244 AVG with a 28.0% kRate. If he can get closer to a 90-pitch count this evening, I like Castillo’s chances of posting a strong fantasy score.

Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.9k | @ KC

Once you get past those top-five pitchers, things become much dicier which is why I believe spending up on two aces will be a popular route on DraftKings today (and most FanDuel players will lock in one of those top guys as well).

Now, with Kikuchi, first things first, the weather in this game will be extremely dangerous for pitchers. It’s fairly warm, and, most notably, there will be 25 mph winds blowing out to left. And Kikuchi was one of the most home run-prone pitchers in 2022, allowing 2.08 HR/9. He still put together a strong 27.3% kRate in 2022, and he dominated in spring training. In 20.2 IP this spring, Kikuchi led all pitchers with 31 strikeouts (13.5 K/9) and he rocked a 0.92 WHIP alongside a minuscule 0.87 ERA. We can only take spring training performances with a grain of salt but if Kikuchi can harness that momentum and carry it with him into his first official start of 2023 while limiting the hard-hit fly balls (and the baseball won’t need to be hit incredibly hard to fly out of the park this evening), then maybe we’ll see a nice game pitched out of him tonight. Working in his favor will be facing a Royals team that is struggling out of the gates on offense with a .179 AVG, .284 OBP, 62 wRC+, and a 25.5% kRate. Toronto is also a heavy -170 favorite. I wouldn’t touch him in cash games, but Kikuchi does make for one of the more intriguing GPP options on the slate.

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Max Scherzer (RHP), NYM | DK: $10.8k, FD: $10.8k | @ MIL

Shane Bieber (RHP), CLE | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11k | @ OAK

Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX | DK: $8.9k, FD: $8.8k | vs. BAL

Dylan Dodd (RHP), ATL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $7.6k | @ STL (Preferred as a DraftKings GPP SP2)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

+ Blue Jays: 5.4 implied runs leads the slate.

+ This game features arguably the best hitting conditions we’ve seen thus far this season -- Temps in the low-70s with strong winds blowing out to left around 25 mph!

+ Kris Bubic posted a very poor 5.67 ERA, 4.77 SIERA, 1.70 WHIP, and 18.7% kRate in 2022.

+ In 15.2 IP this season, the Royals bullpen has accounted for a 5.17 ERA, 1.72 WHIP, and 1.72 HR/9 rate.

+ Kauffman Stadium ranked as the #8 hitter’s park in 2022.

+/- Blue Jays are racking up plenty of hits with a .294 team AVG, though they have hit just a single home run through four games.

- The weather in this game will inflate Blue Jays’ ownership so do not expect this to be a sneaky stack to play.

Favorite TOR Bats: Vlad Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Bo Bichette | Sneaky Bat: Daulton Varsho (13% pOwn%)

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), WAS

+ The Rays have jumped out to a strong offensive start through four games: 132 wRC+ (ranks 5th), .368 wOBA (ranks 6th), .229 ISO (ranks 6th), 37.3% HardContact% (ranks 7th).

+ Chad Kuhl had a slate-worst 4.78 xFIP in 2022.

+ Kuhl performed poorly in the spring (17.2 IP), allowing a 5.09 ERA and 1.42 WHIP.

+ Rays: 4.9 implied runs, ranks T-3rd on the slate.

+/- Nationals bullpen projects to be a bottom 10 unit this season, though they have performed fairly well thus far, allowing a 0.96 WHIP and 3.06 ERA (only a 14.7% kRate, however).

- Tropicana Field ranked as the #20 hitter’s park in 2022.

Favorite TB Bats: Wander Franco, Randy Arozarena, Brandon Lowe | Sneaky Bat: Luke Raley (9% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

+ In 33 career starts at Fenway Park, Pivetta owns a 4.97 ERA, 1.70 HR/9 Rate, 1.47 WHIP, and .353 opp wOBA.

+ Pivetta was poor in spring training, posting a 6.11 ERA, 1.98 WHIP, and gave up 26 hits (four HRs) and nine walks across 17.2 IP.

+ Fenway Park: ranked as the #3 hitter’s park in 2022.

+ Red Sox allowing an MLB-high 2.50 stolen bases per game in 2023.

-/+ The Pirates' offense is streaky, though they did put up seven runs on nine hits (three HRs) in the series opener against the Red Sox last night.

- Hitting conditions are not as optimal as last night -- temps will be in the 40s and 5-10 mph winds blowing in at Fenway this evening.

- BOS bullpen projects to be above-average in 2023 and they have yet to surrender a home run this season in 20.2 IP.

Favorite PIT Bats: Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, Ji Man Choi | Sneaky Bat: Ji Hwan Bae (10% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Matt Strahm (LHP), PHI

OF Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Steven Matz (LHP), STL

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4k | vs. Roansy Contreras (RHP), PIT

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4k | vs. Jose Suarez (LHP), LAA

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Matt Manning (RHP), DET

1B Paul Goldschmidt, STL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4k | vs. Dylan Dodd (RHP), ATL

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4k | vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

OF Bryan Reynolds, PIT | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

SS Wander Franco, TB | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), WAS

C Salvador Perez, KC | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

3B Nolan Gorman, STL | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Dylan Dodd (RHP), ATL

2B Brandon Lowe, TB | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), WAS

C Alejandro Kirk, TOR | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

C Keibert Ruiz, WAS | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Josh Flemming (LHP), TB

OF James Outman, LAD | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

OF Jose Siri, TB | DK: $3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), WAS

2B/OF Ji Hwan Bae, PIT | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

1B/3B Matt Duffy, KC | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

1B Triston Casas, BOS | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Roansy Contreras (RHP), PIT

OF Jordan Walker, STL | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Dylan Dodd (RHP), ATL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. MORE than 8.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

Bryan Reynolds MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!