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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’ll close out the month of April with a loaded baseball Tuesday as a substantial 12-game main slate awaits on deck! Quite a few quality arms are toeing the rubber this evening. Partially because of the amount of talented starting pitchers taking the mound, only five of the 24 teams on the slate will check in with an implied total above 4.4 runs. Until we get into the warmer weather months and/or some slumping sluggers find their groove, hitting on the correct stacks will remain the most difficult challenge of MLB DFS. But we’ll see if we can crack that code today! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• SF @ BOS (7:10 ET): This game starts dry and stays that way for most/all of the way through. However, there is a chance for some rain to move in during the final couple of innings but it seems more likely that it will hold off until after the game. Either way, I’d expect they get through nine innings even if they have to finish things out in the rain. Cooler temps around 50 degrees with 5-10 mph winds blowing IN from right.

• CHC @ NYM (7:10 ET): This is one game that we’ll want to track closely as things should begin dry, but the threat of rain comes into play during the middle innings. The forecasted rain doesn’t look overly heavy, so they should be able to play through anything that may make its way over the ballpark. However, starting pitchers do take on some additional risk due to the potential for a mid-game delay. Winds IN from center/right at 10 mph.

• PHI @ LAA (9:38 ET): 10 mph winds OUT to center/left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL | DK: $10k, FD: $10.4k | vs. TB

As mentioned in the intro, there is a high volume of quality pitchers on this slate but Freddy Peralta is the only guy who I’d consider to truly be of ace caliber. He’s coming off of a rough outing in Pittsburgh but has posted quality results across his five overall starts -- 3.18 ERA, 3.02 xFIP, 0.99 WHIP, and a slate-best 33.3% kRate. I also believe it’s worth noting that this will be Peralta’s second home start of the new season. In 2023, Peralta exhibited some very positive home splits which included an elite 2.85 xFIP, 0.94 WHIP, .182 opp AVG, and an eye-popping 35.7% kRate; compare that to his road splits of 4.09 xFIP, 1.32 WHIP, .246 opp AVG, and 25.6% kRate -- still solid numbers, but not nearly as strong as those home splits. I wouldn’t label this Rays offense as “bad” but they’ve certainly been average, at best, this season. Against RHPs, Tampa Bay has ranked mid-pack in most key metrics and they haven’t shown much power with a .130 ISO (ranks 25th). Peralta also sticks to throwing mostly four-seam fastballs (51.2% of his pitches) and the slider (30.2%). Against that two-pitch mix (from RHPs), the Rays check in at 22nd with a .311 xwOBA paired with an above-average 23.8% kRate. If you can find some productive cheap bats, spending up for Peralta will feel like a solid approach this evening.

Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.7k | @ SEA

I take very little joy in ever spotlighting a pitcher versus my beloved Braves but this Atlanta offense is slumping pretty hard lately and facing a tough customer in Luis Castillo on the road at T-Mobile Park (#1 most pitcher-friendly park thus far in 2024) doesn’t seem like the best spot for them to get things going, if you ask me. Mariners RHP Bryce Miller had a perfect game bid going into the sixth inning last night before Atlanta got their first baserunner. Matt Olson has been a black hole in the lineup, Austin Riley looks lost at the plate, and even reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. is playing well below his baseline and is pounding everything into the dirt. Over the last week against RHPs (168 PAs), the Braves are hitting .221 with a .584 OPS, .266 wOBA, .078 ISO, 67 wRC+, and 30.4% kRate -- ugly stuff. Following a lackluster start to the season where he surrendered four earned runs in each of his initial three starts, Castillo has looked much more like himself lately. Spanning his last three starts (19.0 IP), which included a Coors Field outing, Castillo has procured a 1.89 ERA, 2.80 xFIP, 0.84 WHIP, .191 opp AVG, and 33.8% kRate. Castillo has had some issues against LHBs (6.57 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, .434 wOBA, .309 ISO) and the Braves could do a bit of damage to him, but I’d expect an overall quality outing from him this evening, including a fair amount of strikeouts. I could imagine some fairly low ownership on Castillo as well since many people just avoid playing SPs versus Atlanta, even when they’re struggling so badly at the plate.

Jon Gray (RHP), TEX | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.8k | vs. WAS

It’ll be interesting to see how ownership shakes out among the value pitching today. If I had to make an assumption, albeit a reasonable one, I’d assume RHP Simeon Woods Richardson (DK: $7k, FD: $8.3k) gains some traction against the White Sox. I would have zero issues pivoting away from SWR in favor of Jon Gray. Through six appearances (five starts), Gray has come away with some appealing results -- 2.92 ERA, 3.32 xFIP, and a 29.1% kRate that ranks second among today’s starters, behind only Freddy Peralta. On the flip side, walks have been a bit of an issue for Gray (10.0% BB%) and he has allowed quite a few hard-hit balls (47.8% HardHit%) and a slate-high 13.4% Barrel%. He’ll also be up against a pesky Nationals offense that ranks above average in most key stats against RHPs while providing a lower-than-average 21.4% kRate. The Nationals have also averaged 5.06 runs/gm on the road, versus 3.00 runs/gm at home, and Globe Life Field is a favorable hitter’s park. It does bode well that Gray utilizes the slider as his primary pitch, which he has thrown on 46.8% of his pitches this season. Against RHP sliders, the Nationals have ranked 19th in xwOBA, 29th in average exit velocity, and they’ve posted a 25.6% kRate. The Nationals check in with a modest 3.6 implied run total, the Rangers are moderate -150 ML favorites, and Gray’s K upside alone will make him worth the risk today.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Reynaldo Lopez (RHP), ATL | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.8k | @ SEA

Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9k | @ OAK

Javier Assad (RHP), CHC | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.8k | @ NYM (Monitor weather)

Logan Webb (RHP), SF | DK: $8.3k, FD: $10.2k | @ BOS (DK Preferred)

Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN | DK: $7k, FD: $8.3k | @ CWS

Tyler Alexander (LHP), TB | DK: $6k, FD: $6.9k | @ MIL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Minnesota Twins vs. Michael Soroka (RHP), CWS

+ Twins: 4.7 implied runs (ranks 4th on the slate).

+ The Twins have been righting the ship offensively and they’ve been a top-five team vs. RHPs over the last two weeks: .799 OPS (5th), .351 wOBA (5th), .200 ISO (4th), and 130 wRC+ (4th).

+ As much as I’d love to root for Soroka following several years of brutal injury luck, he just isn’t performing at an MLB level -- through his six starts, he owns a 6.83 ERA, 7.19 xERA, 5.86 xFIP, 1.69 WHIP, 19.4% HR/FB Rate, and his walk rate (12.8%) is higher than his kRate (9.8%).

+ The White Sox bullpen has been nothing special: 4.32 ERA, 4.89 xFIP, 1.51 WHIP, and 1.31 HR/9 Rate.

+ The entire Twins lineup owns affordable salaries.

+ The Twins have been much more productive on the road (5.13 runs/gm) than at home (3.75 runs/gm).

- Despite this being a huge 12-game slate, quite a few Twins hitters are expected to carry high ownership.

Favorite MIN Bats: Ryan Jeffers, Edouard Julien, Carlos Correa

Bargain Bat: Trevor Larnach/Max Kepler

Cleveland Guardians vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

+ Hunter Brown is due for some positive regression, but there is still nothing spectacular about his 4.38 xFIP, which is backing up a slate-worst 9.68 ERA and 2.49 WHIP.

+ Brown has allowed a 92.3 mph average exit velo L30Days (bottom 5th percentile).

+ The Guardians lack elite power but they will make plenty of contact tonight -- their 16.8% kRate vs. RHPs L2Weeks is the 3rd lowest in baseball.

+ The Guardians have been the 7th best road offense, averaging 5.19 runs/gm away.

+ The Astros have deployed a below-average bullpen this season: 4.95 ERA, 4.13 xFIP, and 1.43 WHIP.

-/+ Guardians: 4.1 implied runs (ranks T-10th on the slate).

- As mentioned, a lack of power is a concern with Guardians hitters -- their .088 ISO vs. RHPs L2Weeks ranks them 28th.

- Hunter Brown has been MUCH more effective in reverse split scenarios against LHBs (3.38 ERA, 3.92 xFIP, .400 opp wOBA) as opposed to RHBs (20.65 ERA (!), 6.85 xFIP, .538 opp wOBA).

Favorite CLE Bats: Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Andres Gimenez

Bargain Bat: Will Brennan

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago Cubs vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), NYM

+ Every hitter in the projected Cubs lineup has a < 8% pOwn%.

+ The Cubs have been elite versus LHPs this season: .281 AVG (3rd), .847 OPS (2nd), .370 wOBA (2nd), .208 ISO (1st), and 137 wRC+ (2nd).

+ Manaea has maintained a quality 3.33 ERA and 25.2% kRate this season, but he’s struggling with a slate-worst 13.1% BB% and his underlying metrics aren’t pretty -- 5.04 xERA, 4.58 xFIP, 203.7 feet average batted ball distance (bottom 5th percentile), and 26.6% LineDrive%.

- The Mets have had a top-10 bullpen this season: 2.87 ERA, 3.51 xFIP, 1.12 WHIP, .187 opp AVG, and 31.0% kRate.

- Cubs: 3.2 implied runs (tied for lowest on the slate).

- The Cubs have been less effective on the road, averaging 4.44 runs/gm (vs. 5.85 runs/gm at home) and Citi Field has ranked as the #2 least hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

Favorite CHC Bats: Dansby Swanson, Christopher Morel, Nico Hoerner

Bargain Bat: Patrick Wisdom

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Mike Trout, LAA | DK: $6.3k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Spencer Turnbull (RHP), PHI

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $6k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Yu Darvish (RHP), SD

OF Kyle Tucker, HOU | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), CLE

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4k | vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

OF Adolis Garcia, TEX | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4k | vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

2B Ketel Marte, ARI | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Landon Knack (RHP), LAD

OF Tyler O’Neill, BOS | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

2B Ozzie Albies, ATL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

C William Contreras, MIL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Tyler Alexander (LHP), TB

SS CJ Abrams, WAS | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Reynaldo Lopez (RHP), ATL

C Will Smith, LAD | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), ARI

1B/C Salvador Perez, KC | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

OF Bryan Reynolds, PIT | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Alex Wood (LHP), OAK

1B/3B Alec Bohm, PHI | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

C Ryan Jeffers, MIN | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Michael Soroka (RHP), CWS

1B Justin Turner, TOR | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Cole Ragans (LHP), KC

2B Nico Hoerner, CHC | DK: $4.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), NYM

1B Jake Cronenworth, SD | DK: $4.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), CIN

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Max Kepler, MIN | DK: $4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Michael Soroka (RHP), CWS

OF Wilyer Abreu, BOS | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

OF Trevor Larnach, MIN | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Michael Soroka (RHP), CWS

OF Wyatt Langford, TEX | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

OF Eloy Jimenez, CWS | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN

OF Jurickson Profar, SD | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), CIN

3B/OF Patrick Wisdom, CHC | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), NYM

1B/OF Gavin Sheets, CWS | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN

3B Josh Rojas, SEA | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Reynaldo Lopez (RHP), ATL

C Patrick Bailey, SF | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Cooper Criswell (RHP), BOS

SS Willi Castro, MIN | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Michael Soroka (RHP), CWS

OF Tommy Pham, CWS | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN

OF Jo Adell, LAA | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Spencer Turnbull (RHP), PHI

OF Jacob Young, WAS | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Kyle Tucker MORE than 7.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

Ryan Jeffers MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!