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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s a getaway day for many road teams wrapping up their respective early-week series so we’ll arrive at an all-day Wednesday baseball affair with games spanning from afternoon to evening. I hope anyone who delved into the early slate action is well on their way to a nice profit by the time you’re reading this newsletter! For our evening main slate, we’ll have a small five-game four-game slate to dig into which will get underway a bit earlier than usual with a 6:45 ET start time in the first game. Like yesterday, weather is going to be a nuisance once again in some spots and it wouldn’t be a major surprise if one or two games get knocked off of this main slate due to postponement. It’s always a bit frustrating when we have to track poor weather situations while building our player pool/lineups, but that’s just how it’s gonna be some days! We’ll see what we can cook up for this small slate. Best of luck!

Update: The DET/NYM game has been postponed which will whittle us down to a four-game slate tonight.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

PIT @ WAS (6:45 ET): There are scattered showers in Washington throughout the day but a midday look at the forecast shows a dry window opening right around the scheduled first pitch. As long as the field is in good condition, this game should start on time, or close to it. Unfortunately, some more rain is expected to move in later in the evening. With games lasting about 2.5 hours these days, there is a moderate chance they’ll get nine innings in before the late storms arrive. Other scenarios could be finishing the game a bit wet, a late-inning delay or the game gets called early before finishing nine innings. We’ll keep players from this game in play for now. Cooler temps around 50 degrees with 15-20 mph winds blowing left to right.

DET @ NYM (7:10 ET): Much like yesterday, which resulted in a postponement, this will be the major trouble spot on the evening. Moderate-to-heavy rains are falling all day and well into the evening. It will also be cold with temps in the low-40s, and heavy winds will be blowing IN from right at 25-30 mph. If the current forecast holds, I don’t see how they’ll choose to play this game, especially based on the postponement yesterday in less problematic conditions. If no early PPD is announced, run another weather check around 6:30 ET to see if there are any improvements. For the purposes of this newsletter, I’ll be excluding any mention of players in this game.

Update: No surprise. DET/NYM has been postponed.

COL @ CHC (7:40 ET): Another pretty miserable day in Chicago with rain/snow expected with temps in the mid-30s and 15 mph winds blowing IN from left. Fortunately, the rain/snow isn’t expected to be too heavy so they may just choose to play through the ugly conditions without any delays. If that’s the case, you probably couldn’t construct a better pitching environment if you tried.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Tyler Glasnow (RHP), LAD | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10k | vs. SF

With limited options to choose from, especially if a game or two gets knocked off of an already small slate due to weather, we’re going to see some heavy ownership fall on just two or three pitchers. Glasnow is quite obviously going to be a popular play today but it may be worth eating the chalk and trying to differentiate elsewhere with your hitters/stacks. After getting off to an uninspiring start against the Padres in the Seoul Series, Glasnow looked much more like his ace-caliber self in his second start last Thursday against the Cardinals where he threw six two-hit, one-run innings on 81 pitches while snagging five Ks and earning the win -- good for 23.7 DKFP/40 FDFP. He’ll now take the mound for the third time this season against a Giants offense that has been mediocre against RHPs early on in the new season. In 169 PA vs. RHPs, the Giants rank 16th with a .317 wOBA, 18th with a 94 wRC+, and they have an above-average 23.7% kRate. To get more specific with it, Glasnow throws his four-seamer on essentially half of his pitches. The Giants have seen 186 four-seamers from RHPs this season. Against that pitch type, they rank dead last with a .146 AVG, 28th with a .247 wOBA, and their 26.8% kRate is the 8th highest. As usual, the Dodgers (-230 ML) are very heavy favorites. Glasnow could increase his pitch count closer to around 90 tonight and, if he’s economical with those pitches, he should turn in another strong six-plus inning effort.

Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.3k | vs. TOR

Javier combined a promising Spring Training (19.1 IP, 3.72 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, .149 opp AVG, 17 K) into a great first start to the season. He held a potent Yankees lineup, which is currently a top-10 offense, to four hits and a walk across six scoreless innings while notching six punch-outs. Javier allowed just a 12.5% HardContact% last Friday while showing great command of the zone and earning an impressive 22.2% CStr% (called strike percentage). The Blue Jays offense will probably be happy to wrap up this series in Houston after getting no-hit by Ronel Blanco on Monday and, albeit in winning fashion, they mustered just two runs (via a two-run 9th inning HR from Davis Schneider) in yesterday’s game. While we still can’t place much stock into early-season numbers, the Blue Jays are pretty firmly near the bottom of most key offensive metrics against RHPs this season. They rank bottom-five in AVG, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ -- though, in their defense, they have been very unlucky in the BABIP department. They also possess a middling 23.2% kRate vs. RHPs. Like several other offenses that have gotten off to a slow start, I don’t expect the Blue Jays will be down for long, but Javier will be a favorable option on this slate given the choices that we have on such a small slate.

Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.4k | @ CHC

I don’t like this any more than you do but, as mentioned in the weather rundown, the conditions in Chicago tonight will heavily favor pitchers with the chilly temps and 15 mph winds blowing in from left field. We’ll have to make sure they intend to play this game with the rain/snow in the forecast but, for now, it seems more likely that they’ll play rather than postpone. I would’ve liked to have gone to a Cubs pitcher but they’re looking to deploy a bullpen game so we can’t really trust anyone there. Ever since his productive 2021 season where he emerged with a 2.89 ERA across 149.2 IP, Quantrill has been nothing special. He had a poor showing last Friday against the D-Backs (5.0 IP, 9 H, 2 HR, 1 BB, 5 ER, 1K) and his Spring performance was very forgettable (15.1 IP, 5.28 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, .385 opp AVG, 5 K). I also don’t love attacking a quality Cubs offense which currently owns the lowest kRate vs. RHPs this season (14.9%). With all of that said, Quantrill will go low-owned tonight even with a small pitcher pool to choose from, he’s cheap, and the pitching conditions could, in theory, allow him to put together a quality five or six-inning start. It’s a low-confidence GPP play, but if there’s any time to play Cal Quantrill, this would seem like the sort of spot to do it.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.6k | @ WAS (Monitor Weather)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Houston Astros vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

+ Astros: 4.9 implied runs (ranks T-1st on the slate).

+ Bassitt didn’t impress in his first start of the season (@ TB, 5.0 IP, 6 H, 1 HR, 2 BB, 4 ER, 6 K) and he allowed a 53.3% HardHit%.

+ Bassitt's primary pitch is his sinker -- the Astros have seen 174 RHP sinkers this season (3rd most) and have come away with a .304 AVG, .382 xwOBA, and 6.6% kRate versus that pitch type.

+ In five career starts (24.2 IP) at Minute Maid Park, Bassitt has posted a lackluster 6.20 ERA, 4.56 xFIP, .356 opp wOBA, and 2.60 HR/9 Rate.

+ In 140 PA against the current Astros roster, Bassitt owns a .302 xBA, .349 xwOBA, and 15.7% kRate.

+ The Astros rank 3rd with a 133 wRC+ against righties.

+ The Blue Jays bullpen currently owns a 5.70 xFIP (3rd worst).

- Bassitt was excellent in two starts against the Astros last season and had a decent Spring where he put up a 1.17 WHIP in 23.0 IP.

- The Astros have not been overly strong in the power department, ranking 16th with a .154 ISO vs. RHPs.

Favorite HOU Bats: Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez

Bargain Bat: Yainer Diaz

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

+ Pirates: 4.9 implied runs (ranks T-1st on the slate).

+ The Pirates offense has started the 2024 season nicely -- versus RHPs, they rank 2nd in AVG, 6th in OPS, 7th in wOBA, and 13th in wRC+.

+ This will be Williams’ first start of the season but he struggled to a 7.20 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and .348 opp AVG across 15.0 IP in Spring Training.

+ Williams across 30 starts and 144.1 IP in 2023: 5.55 ERA, 5.21 xFIP, 1.60 WHIP, .296 opp AVG, 16.8% kRate, and 2.12 HR/9 Rate.

+ The Nats bullpen has been pretty awful thus far: .319 opp AVG, 1.81 WHIP, 6.19 ERA, and 4.62 xFIP.

+ There are plenty of viable cheap Pirates hitters to choose from.

- A Pirates stack may be a popular target today with six PIT hitters currently projected for > 16% pOwn%.

- Weather conditions aren’t great in Washington today and, assuming no postponement, there’s a chance that this game could get called early before finishing nine innings.

Favorite PIT Bats: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz

Bargain Bats: Connor Joe, Jack Suwinski, Michael A. Taylor

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Francisco Giants vs. Tyler Glasnow (RHP), LAD

It can be tough to find leverage on a small slate, especially now that there are just four games on the main slate. However, any sort of Giants stack will provide leverage against Tyler Glasnow, who could be the highest-owned pitcher on the night. I made my case for Glasnow in the pitcher section, but his 5.42 xFIP through two starts is pretty rough and he’s been very fortunate with a .107 BABIP thus far. I don’t believe the Giants' offense will blow open this game, but they could easily put up four-to-six runs and, if you land on the right guys, you may be well on your way to a GPP takedown. A two or three-man mini Giants stack could work out just fine on this sort of slate.

Favorite SF Bats: Jorge Soler, Matt Chapman, Michael Conforto

Bargain Bat: LaMonte Wade Jr.

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

2B/SS Mookie Betts, LAD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.8k | vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

OF Kyle Tucker, HOU | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU

OF Jorge Soler, SF | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Tyler Glasnow (RHP), LAD

3B Christopher Morel, CHC | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

SS CJ Abrams, WAS | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

3B Ke’Bryan Hayes, PIT | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

OF Charlie Blackmon, COL | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Cubs Bullpen

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Jack Suwinski, PIT | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

C Yainer Diaz, HOU | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

SS Jeremy Pena, HOU | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

1B/OF Connor Joe, PIT | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

OF Jesse Winker, WAS | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

1B/OF LaMonte Wade Jr., SF | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Tyler Glasnow (RHP), LAD

OF Eddie Rosario, WAS | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

OF Michael A. Taylor, PIT | DK: $3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

1B Rowdy Tellez, PIT | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Jose Altuve MORE than 0.5 Runs

Jorge Soler MORE than 0.5 Total Bases

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In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!