Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 4/3 | Running Down Monday's Windy 11-Game Slate!

Author

Ryan Humphries
April 03, 2023

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

Like, Subscribe, and Comment @ LineStar YouTube channel! Never know when we’ll shout you out or give you something cool. New episodes drop Mon-Fri feat. hosts Shannon Sommerville & Tyler Wiemann! Every episode is quick, informative, & easy to watch.

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s day five of the new season and we’ve got some all-day action going on with every MLB team taking the field throughout the afternoon and into the evening. Our focus, of course, will land on the hefty 11-game slate that will get underway at 7:05 ET! Every team is getting deeper into their starting pitcher rotation so, while there will be less talent on the mound to choose from today, it does open up a wider range of viable offenses and stacks to target. Let’s get it rockin’ and rollin’! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Overview: We shouldn’t have any main slate postponement worries today but there are quite a few game environments where some stiff winds could play a factor.

TB @ WAS (7:05 ET): Mid-60s temps with 12 mph winds blowing OUT to center.

PHI @ NYY (7:05 ET): 10-15 mph winds blowing right to left.

PIT @ BOS (7:10 ET): Mid-40s temps with 12-15 mph winds blowing OUT toward the Green Monster in left field.

TOR @ KC (7:40 ET): 10 mph winds blowing IN from left.

ATL @ STL (7:45 ET): 10-15 mph winds blowing right to left.

ARI @ SD (9:40 ET): Strong ~25 mph winds but they’ll be mostly blowing left to right, a bit in from left at times.

CLE @ OAK (9:40 ET): 15-20 mph winds blowing OUT to right.

COL @ LAD (10:10 ET): 20-25 mph winds blowing IN from left, a bit left to right.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Quick Note on Pitching: During the initial portion of the season, not many starting pitchers are going to be throwing a full workload unless otherwise noted by the team’s manager (and even then, that’s not information we can fully trust). This makes spending up on pitching a bit riskier in the early goings.

Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.6k | @ SEA

As touched on in the intro, since we’re getting into the middle/back of every team’s pitcher rotation, there aren’t any true aces taking the mound today. But that doesn’t mean we won’t get some ace-like production out of some of these guys. Reid Detmers may not be a household name but many may remember the no-hitter he threw against the Rays last year on May 10th when a single walk issued was the only thing that prevented the perfect game. Detmers has reportedly picked up some velocity on his pitches in the off-season and he had an impressive spring training, racking up 27 Ks (12.2 K/9) across 20.0 IP while maintaining a 1.20 WHIP. We can’t put too much stock on a four-game sample size, but Seattle is a team that is struggling out of the gates offensively. In 142 team plate appearances, the Mariners have mustered just a .197 AVG, .259 wOBA, 24.6% kRate, and 59 wRC+. It's tough to say that Detmers is a safe option, but if his spring ball performance transfers over to his 2023 debut and if the Mariners continue to stumble on offense, he’ll make for an intriguing option this evening and shouldn’t carry high ownership.

Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB | DK: $8.1k, FD: $10.2k | @ WAS

Rasmussen stepped in as a full-time starter for the first time in his career last season and, by all means, he put up some respectable results. Across his 28 starts (146.0 IP) in 2022, Rasmussen boasted a 2.84 ERA, 3.56 xFIP, 1.04 WHIP, 0.80 HR/9 Rate, and 21.4% kRate. He also forced an above-average 46.6% ground ball rate, which is worth noting given those 12 mph winds that will be blowing out to center at Nationals Park tonight. The main draw for Rasmussen will be his match-up with a weak Washington offense. Again, it’s way too early to put much stock in 2023 results, but in their three-game opening series versus the Braves, the Nationals posted a paltry .211 AVG, .269 wOBA, and 70 wRC+ while creating just a 27.8% HardContact% (currently the 5th lowest in MLB). The main concerns with Rasmussen center around his numbers on the road and some possible pitch count limitations. Rasmussen averaged 41.6% less FPPG on the road last season and, even when he was fully stretched out, the Rays typically limited him to an 80s-90s pitch count. But the Rays are heavy -172 favorites tonight and if he can be efficient with his innings, Rasmussen may work out just fine tonight.

Michael Grove (RHP), LAD | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.9k | vs. COL

The Dodgers are already thin in the starting rotation to begin the season; Walker Buehler (elbow) may not even pitch in 2023, Tony Gonsolin (ankle) is on the 15-day IL after missing most of spring training, and Ryan Pepiot (oblique) was placed on the 15-day IL last week. So RHP Michael Grove will get his shot in the Dodgers’ starting rotation tonight and he makes for an intriguing spend-down DFS option. Grove was unremarkable in 29.1 IP last season where he produced a 4.60 ERA, 4.77 xFIP, 1.43 WHIP, and an 18.0% kRate. He did show off some improved strikeout upside in spring training with 17 Ks in 16.2 IP (9.2 K/9) and he also posted a sharp 1.08 WHIP, but giving up three home runs did inflate his ERA to 5.40. Home runs were an issue for Grove in 2022 as well -- his six home runs allowed equated to a 1.84 HR/9 rate. The good news on that front is the fact that some stiff 20-25 mph winds will be blowing in from left field for much of the night at Dodger Stadium. The Rockies split their four-game road series with the Padres to open up the season but they did strike out 27.2% of the time in that series while posting a slightly below-average 98 wRC+. Grove would be preferred as an SP2 option on DraftKings, where he is the cheapest pitcher on the slate, but the Dodgers are heavy -218 favorites and if we can get five solid innings out of Grove, paired with a win bonus, he could work out just fine while opening up some extra salary to spend up on bats.

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.5k | vs. PHI

George Kirby (RHP), SEA | DK: $8k, FD: $10k | vs. LAA

Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9.1k | vs. DET

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

+ Dodgers: 4.8 implied runs ranks T-2nd on the slate.

+ Dodgers have started fairly strong with a 136 wRC+ across their 153 PA in this young season.

+ Feltner was awful in spring ball: 16.1 IP, 9.92 ERA, 2.20 WHIP, 2.80 HR/9, 5.5 K/9

+ Feltner was arguably worse when pitching on the road last year, away from the hitter-friendly Coors Field.

+ In 23.0 IP (all vs. SD), the Rockies bullpen is off to a 5.87 ERA, 1.43 WHIP start.

+ Dodger Stadium ranked as the #4 best hitter’s ballpark in 2022.

- 20-25 mph winds blowing in from left field will make it difficult to blast home runs.

- Key LAD bats are pricey.

Favorite LAD Bats: Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Will Smith | Sneaky Bat: James Outman (2% pOwn%)

Texas Rangers vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

+ Rangers: 4.8 implied runs ranks T-2nd on the slate.

+ Rangers have exploded for an MLB-high 29 runs in just three games while hitting .343 AVG, .420 wOBA, and 159 wRC+.

+ Bradish came out of spring training with a 6.61 ERA in 16.1 IP.

+ Bradish had a high 14.9% HR/FB Rate in 2022.

+ Rangers have a ton of combined power with their 1 thru 4 hitters, sneaky power in the back half of the lineup.

+ Globe Life Field ranked as the #10 best hitter’s ballpark in 2022.

-/+ Orioles bullpen has put up a stout 2.58 xFIP and 29.8% kRate in 24.0 IP. However, they’ve also allowed a .269 AVG (6th highest) and a poor 1.46 WHIP.

Favorite TEX Bats: Adolis Garcia, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien | Sneaky Bat: Josh Jung (3% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

+ Cardinals have erupted for a .443 wOBA, .218 ISO, and an MLB-high 202 wRC+ through their first three games.

+ Cardinals' 15.6% kRate is the lowest in MLB to begin the season.

+ Charlie Morton gave up four home runs in his 12.0 IP in spring training, ending with a 6.00 ERA.

+ Morton gave up a slate-worst 16.5% HR/FB% in 2022.

- Braves' bullpen projects to be one of the best in 2023.

- Cardinals: 3.7 implied run total ranks T-6th fewest on the slate.

- Core STL bats will still be fairly expensive.

Favorite STL Bats: Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Willson Contreras | Sneaky Bat: Brendan Donovan (11% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4k | vs. Johan Oviedo (RHP), PIT

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Matthew Boyd (LHP), DET

SS Xander Bogaerts, SD | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

OF Cedric Mullins, BAL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

SS Oneil Cruz, PIT | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

C Will Smith, LAD | DK: $5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

1B Matt Olson, ATL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Jake Woodford (RHP), STL

3B Nolan Arenado, STL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

SS Wander Franco, TB | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

OF Adolis Garcia, TEX | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Christian Walker, ARI | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), SD

OF Daulton Varsho, TOR | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

C Travis d’Arnaud, ATL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jake Woodford (RHP), STL

OF Michael Harris II, ATL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Jake Woodford (RHP), STL

OF Adam Duvall, BOS | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Johan Oviedo (RHP), PIT

OF Chas McCormick, HOU | DK: $3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Matthew Boyd (LHP), DET

OF James Outman, LAD | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

1B Triston Casas, BOS | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Johan Oviedo (RHP), PIT

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

PrizePicks Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Oneil Cruz MORE than 6.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

Aaron Judge MORE than 1.5 Total Bases

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!