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Top DFS Offers 4/29/23 💸

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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’re back at it with a nine-game Monday MLB main slate! This sets up as a West Coast-heavy slate with five games getting underway at or around 9:40 ET. Pitching looks solid overall with plenty of arms, even down into the lower price ranges, that could feasibly have a strong outing tonight. The amount of enticing hitting/stack options feels slightly underwhelming for a slate of this size, but there will no doubt be several teams that put up some quality offensive performances by night’s end. Weather won’t be much of a nuisance today, which is always a nice bonus. Let’s get off to a great start to the work week! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• CHC @ NYM (7:10 ET): This looks like the only game where some wet weather could make its way over the ballpark. Fortunately, it’s just some spotty showers expected in the area, so a brief delay of some sort is a possibility. It is more likely that they play the entire game without any issues.

• PHI @ LAA (9:38 ET): 10 mph winds blowing OUT to center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Max Fried (LHP), ATL | DK: $8.7k, FD: $7.8k | @ SEA

Once again, Joe Ryan (DK: $10.4k, FD: $10.9k) is likely going to be the go-to spend-up for many folks as he draws a second consecutive start against the White Sox. Looking elsewhere, we’ll spotlight Max Fried, who may be finding his form following a CGSO in his previous start, which was a Maddux, no less (CGSO in under 100 pitches thrown). You could make the point that Fried’s two quality starts have both come against a poor Miami Marlins offense, and you’d be right. But he has been victim to some poor luck this season evidenced by his 4.97 ERA that is backed up by a stronger 3.56 xFIP and 3.67 SIERA. Fried is also forcing an absurdly high 65.0% Groundball Rate next to just a 13.8% FlyBall Rate. His 83.6 mph average exit velo and 25.9% HardHit% also rank him second in both categories among all MLB starters (min. 10 IP). So, the underlying metrics have been great for Fried up to this point, although, his 16.5% kRate (9.7% SwStr%) leaves much to be desired. The good news is that he’ll be facing a Mariners offense that owns an MLB-high 288 strikeouts this season, so Fried will be in a strong spot to improve his kRate tonight. T-Mobile Park has also been the #1 most pitcher-friendly ballpark in the MLB this season and the Mariners have averaged just 3.25 runs/gm at home while posting a .193 AVG, .279 wOBA, and 89 wRC+ at home versus LHPs. Fried’s $7,800 price tag on FanDuel, which makes him the 11th most expensive starter on the slate, feels criminally low. And he remains a potential bargain at $8,700 on DraftKings, as well.

Garrett Crochet (LHP), CWS | DK: $8.6k,FD: $8.6k | vs. MIN

If you want to zig where others zag and gain some leverage, Garrett Crochet is going to be very interesting from a GPP standpoint. He’s facing the same Twins team for the second time in five days and didn’t have a great outing against them last Wednesday (4.0 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 5 ER, 6 K), and he was rocked by a hot-hitting Phillies team in the start before that. But, it’s worth noting that both of those starts came on the road. Crochet will be back at home tonight where he has been much more electric in three home starts: 3.57 ERA, 2.20 xFIP, 0.91 WHIP, .190 opp avg, and, most importantly for DFS purposes, he’s posted a ferocious 37.7% kRate at home. The Twins offense has had their struggles against RHPs, but they have excelled against lefties, ranking top-five in AVG, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ vs. LHPs this season while posting a middling 21.9% kRate. But Crochet has shown some truly elite “stuff” and there is a reason why his poor 6.37 ERA is backed up by an outstanding 2.98 xFIP and 2.57 xERA. It’s not an ideal match-up, but you’re getting plenty of upside from Crochet, perhaps even at single-digit ownership.

Bailey Falter (LHP), PIT | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8.8k | @ OAK

Falter owns the largest pricing discrepancy among pitchers between DraftKings and FanDuel, so he’s going to set up more as a favorable SP2 play at his $6,500 tag on DK. Falter had a tough outing to begin the season but, spanning his last four starts (23.0 IP), he has procured a 1.57 ERA, 4.09 xFIP, 0.70 WHIP, .150 opp AVG, .199 opp wOBA, and 19.0% kRate. The xFIP and kRate are nothing spectacular, but he’s gone up against some seriously good offenses in that recent four-game stretch -- notably, the Orioles, Phillies, and Brewers. He’ll now take on an Oakland A’s squad that has scored three runs or fewer in nine of their last ten games. Against LHPs this season, the A’s own a .198 AVG, .276 wOBA, 82 wRC+, and 24.9% kRate. Oakland has shown some proficient power, with a .172 ISO vs. LHPs (ranks 6th), but when they do knock out the occasional home run, it’s typically going to be a solo shot. Falter also does a solid job at limiting exit velocity with an 86.6 mph average exit velo this season (top 80th percentile). Falter is coming off his best outing of the season against Milwaukee, where he completed seven full innings on just 85 pitches while allowing one run on three hits and he struck out eight. I would maybe look elsewhere on FanDuel, but Falter sets up as an attractive value play on DraftKings this evening.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN | DK: $10.4k, FD: $10.9k | @ CWS

Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.5k | @ LAA

Luis Severino (RHP), NYM | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9k | vs. CHC

Matt Waldron (RHP), SD | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.1k | vs. CIN

Joe Boyle (RHP), OAK | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7k | vs. PIT

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. James Paxton (LHP), LAD

+ D-Backs: 4.9 implied runs (ranks T-2nd on the slate).

+ The D-Backs have dominated LHPs this season: .316 AVG (1st), .863 OPS (1st), .377 wOBA (1st), .176 ISO (4th), 139 wRC+ (1st), and 16.5% kRate (3rd lowest).

+ Paxton has somehow maintained a 2.61 ERA through his four starts but he has been extremely fortunate because that low ERA is backed up by a slate-worst 5.27 xERA and 6.19 xFIP.

+ Paxton’s 49.2% HardHit% is the highest among all starters today.

+ Paxton has maintained a solid 2.85 xFIP vs. LHBs, but the D-Backs will be rolling out eight RHBs in their confirmed lineup today (Paxton: 6.72 xFIP vs. RHBs).

+ Following a 10-game road trip, the D-Backs are back at home today -- they have been the #1 home offense this season, averaging 6.00 runs/gm (vs. 4.75 runs/gm away).

-/+ The Dodgers bullpen has been “okay” but nothing special: 3.75 ERA, 4.18 xFIP, 1.12 WHIP, and 21.9% kRate.

Favorite ARI Bats: Ketel Marte, Christian Walker, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Bargain Bat: Blaze Alexander

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

+ Phillies: 4.9 implied runs (ranks T-2nd on the slate).

+ The Phillies offense has been red-hot -- since April 16th (12 games) against RHPs, they’re hitting .292 with an .886 OPS, .382 wOBA, .243 ISO, 143 wRC+, and 19.3% kRate.

+ Canning hasn’t been quite as bad as his 7.50 ERA would indicate, but he still owns a poor 4.78 xFIP, 1.54 WHIP, and 18.2% kRate on the season.

+ Angel Stadium has been the #2 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season, the #7 home run ballpark, and there will be some 10 mph winds blowing out to center tonight, favoring the hitters.

+ The Angels have had a bottom-five bullpen: 5.55 ERA, 4.61 xFIP, 1.37 WHIP, and 20.4% kRate.

- Canning has pitched decently well in his last two starts -- good enough, anyway, to earn back-to-back wins versus the Orioles and Rays.

- Core Phillies bats are pricey and should carry some fairly high ownership.

Favorite PHI Bats: Trea Turner, Alex Bohm, Bryce Harper

Bargain Bat: Johan Rojas

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tommy Henry (LHP), ARI

The Dodgers are a pretty obvious stack, as usual, especially the main guys like Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, and Smith. Expect those guys to command plenty of ownership tonight, but for good reason. The Dodgers easily lead the slate with a 5.6 implied run total.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Kansas City Royals vs. Yariel Rodriguez (RHP), TOR

+ Every Royals hitter in the confirmed lineup has a ≤ 8% pOwn%.

+ The Royals just faced Yariel Rodriguez five days ago and did a fair amount of damage in his 4.0 IP -- 6 H, 2 BB, 3 ER.

+ Rodriguez has posted a solid 3.86 ERA across his three outings, but that is backed up by a lackluster 5.01 xERA, 1.54 WHIP, and 90.4 mph average exit velo (bottom 20th percentile).

+ Toronto’s bullpen has struggled: 4.75 ERA, 4.62 xFIP, 1.36 WHIP, 19.7% kRate, and 1.52 HR/9 Rate (highest in MLB).

- The Royals have posted a poor 76 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks (ranks 24th).

- The Royals have been noticeably worse on the road where they have averaged 3.75 runs/gm (vs. 5.18 runs/gm at home).

- Royals: 3.8 implied runs (5th lowest on the slate).

Favorite KC Bats: Salvador Perez, Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia

Bargain Bat: Michael Massey

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

2B/SS Mookie Betts, LAD | DK: $6.6k, FD:  $4.6k| vs. Tommy Henry (LHP), ARI

OF Mike Trout, LAA | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4k | vs. Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Matt Walldron (RHP), SD

2B Ketel Marte, ARI | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.5k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), LAD

1B Pete Alonso, NYM | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Nick Lodolo (RHP), CIN

2B Ozzie Albies, ATL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA

1B/3B Alec Bohm, PHI | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

C Salvador Perez, KC | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Yariel Rodriguez (RHP), TOR

OF Richie Palacios, TB | DK: $4.7k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), MIL

1B Rhys Hoskins, MIL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), TB

OF Bryan Reynolds, PIT | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Joe Boyle (RHP), OAK

OF George Springer, TOR | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Jonathan Bowlan (RHP), KC

1B Michael Busch, CHC | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYM

C Ryan Jeffers, MIN | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Garrett Crochet (LHP), CWS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), PIT

OF Daulton Varsho, TOR | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jonathan Bowlan (RHP), KC

SS Blaze Alexander, ARI | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), LAD

2B/OF Davis Schneider, TOR | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jonathan Bowlan (RHP), KC

OF Eloy Jimenez, CWS | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN

OF Mike Tauchman, CHC | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYM

OF Andy Pages, LAD | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Tommy Henry (LHP), ARI

SS Willi Castro, MIN | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Garrett Crochet (LHP), CWS

OF Jo Adell, LAA | DK: $3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

OF Tyrone Taylor, NYM | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

3B/OF Tyler Nevin, OAK | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), PIT

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Trea Turner MORE than 8.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

Mookie Betts LESS than 0.5 Hitter Strikeouts

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!