Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 4/28 | Navigating Friday's Busy Slate!

Author

Ryan Humphries
April 28, 2023

Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Happy Friday, folks! We will kick off the weekend with an 11-game slate this evening! We’ve got aces on the mound, some intriguing value pitchers, Coors Field is in play, and plenty of other hitters/stacks landing in strong spots. Unfortunately, some wet weather on the East Coast will bring some legitimate postponement concerns in a couple of this evening’s games so it wouldn’t surprise me if we end up with a nine or ten-game slate. Either way, there is a ton of baseball action to enjoy so let’s get into it. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

PIT @ WAS (7:05 ET): Rain has been pouring in WAS all day and there is no guarantee that things will clear up in time to get this game in. There is a decent clearing in the late afternoon but some scattered storms upstream look to roll through this evening. Fairly high chance for a PPD here. Not sure if it matters, but winds will be blowing IN from right at 10-15 mph.

Update: PIT/WAS has been postponed.

ATL @ NYM (7:10 ET): The same storm system that is currently drenching WAS will be moving into NY in the late afternoon/early evening and it’ll be around well into the night. I wouldn’t expect this game to play either. And, again, it probably doesn’t matter since it seems doubtful they’ll play, but winds will be blowing IN from right at 10-15 mph.

 

Note: For the purposes of this newsletter, I’ll avoid mentioning any players from these two games. The good news is that if they do decide to postpone either game, an announcement should come early before the slate begins.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $10k, FD: $10.5k | vs. PHI

You can rarely go wrong with the top arm on the slate, Jacob deGrom (DK: $11.5k, FD: $11.4k) facing what is a very average Yankees offense right now.

Framber Valdez is also worth ample consideration out of the top-tier pitchers today. He’s off to a solid start to the 2023 season -- through 31.2 IP, he owns a 2.25 ERA, 2.90 xFIP, 1.16 WHIP, and 26.0% kRate. And, as per usual, he is forcing more ground balls than any other starting pitcher in the league with a 65.5% GB% against just a 17.2% Fly Ball Rate. All of those forced ground balls allow him to work deep into games and he has already covered seven full innings in three-of-five 2023 starts. Valdez is also someone who tends to pitch a bit better at home where he averages +22.0% more FPPG. In 17 home starts (104.1 IP) since the beginning of last season, Valdez has boasted a 3.19 ERA, 2.56 xFIP, .281 opp wOBA, and 27.1% kRate.

The Phillies are an above-average offense versus LHPs, ranking 12th with a .328 wOBA, 12th with a 104 wRC+, and they have a moderately high 23.5% kRate. However, they have struggled to get anything going against Valdez. In 70 PA against Valdez, the current Phillies roster owns a paltry .161 AVG, .211 wOBA, and a huge 35.7% kRate. Expect good things out of the Astros ace tonight.

Zach Eflin (RHP), TB | DK: $9k, FD: $10k | @ CWS

Eflin has been great in his three starts with the Rays this season, owning a 2.81 ERA, 3.11 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP, and 25.4% kRate. He has also only issued one walk across his 16.0 IP. The main concern with Eflin will be pitch count. The Rays are notorious for pulling their starters before they crack 90+ pitches. Eflin also missed a couple of starts with a back injury and only threw 67 pitches in his most recent outing on Sunday. He’s also pitching against the White Sox in consecutive starts, which can oftentimes work against the pitcher’s favor.

With that said, the White Sox have been a bottom-tier team against RHPs: .235 AVG (ranks 21st), .290 wOBA (26th), .136 ISO (23rd), and 83 wRC+ (25th). They also head into this match-up with a .242 wOBA, 50 wRC+, and 28.9% kRate over the last week. The hope is that Eflin can reach close to a 90-pitch count, which would be enough for another strong outing if he keeps his current form going.

 

Alek Manoah (RHP), TOR | DK: $6.9k, FD: $9.8k | vs. SEA

On FanDuel, I’d probably look to find the extra salary to spend up on one of the more proven top arms on the slate. However, Manoah’s $6,900 price tag on DraftKings makes him an intriguing SP2 option. He’s been the epitome of “boom or bust” this season with two great outings and three poor ones. It’s also not as if he’s getting “unlucky” either based on his 5.78 xFIP next to his 5.13 ERA. Strangely, he averaged -38.8% fewer FPPG when pitching at home and both of his good outings this season came on the road. But we’ll be hoping to see Manoah progress back to the consistent high-end starter that he has been over the last couple of seasons with the Blue Jays.

He’ll take on a Mariners offense that has been exactly average against RHPs, evidenced by their 100 wRC+. The Mariners also offer up a good amount of strikeouts given their 24.4% kRate against RHPs on the year -- if we look at just the last two weeks, no other team has struck out versus RHPs at a higher clip than Seattle (28.6% kRate). Manoah has never been a major strikeout pitcher but his 17.4% kRate from this season should begin to climb closer to his 2022 (22.9% kRate) and 2021 (27.7% kRate) figures. Proceed with caution, but Manoah is a guy who would routinely land in the $9k and $10k salary ranges on DraftKings the last couple of seasons, so $6.9k is simply too cheap for a pitcher of his caliber.

 

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Jacob deGrom (RHP), TEX | DK: $11.5k, FD: $11.4k | vs. NYY

Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11k | @ TOR

Dustin May (RHP), LAD | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.1k | vs. STL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

 

Non-Coors Stacks

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS

+ Rays: 4.6 implied runs (ranks T-3rd among non-Coors teams).

+ Giolito has had seasons where he has pitched like an ace, but he’s putting out some fairly average results this season: 4.50 ERA, 4.67 xFIP, .329 opp wOBA.

+ Giolito has allowed 11 barreled balls (bottom 5th percentile); the Rays have 77 barreled balls this season (ranks 2nd).

+ Giolito has a 50% Fly Ball Rate; Rays rank 4th with a 16.9% HR/FB Rate vs. RHPs.

+ Rays are a top offense vs. RHPs: .273 AVG (3rd), .370 wOBA (1st), .233 ISO (1st), 144 wRC+ (1st).

+ White Sox bullpen has allowed a .281 AVG, 1.71 WHIP, and 6.06 ERA -- those numbers rank them 29th in each category.

+ Rays are facing Giolito in back-to-back starts.

- Core Rays bats are a bit pricey.

- The Rays have scored four runs or fewer in four of their last six games.

Favorite TB Bats: Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe | Bargain Bat: Harold Ramirez

Cleveland Guardians vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

+ Guardians: 4.8 implied runs (ranks 2nd among non-Coors teams).

+ Pivetta owns a 5.36 ERA and 1.61 WHIP over his last 20 starts.

+ Pivetta has allowed a slate-high 11.4% Barrel% this season & is tied with Clarke Schmidt with a slate-high 57.4% HardHit%.

+ Current CLE roster has a .295 AVG in 67 PA vs. Pivetta.

+ Pivetta is averaging -50.5% fewer FPPG at home.

+ Pivetta allowing a .350 wOBA and .314 ISO to LHBs this season; CLE should have at least five LHBs in their lineup today.

+ Boston’s bullpen owns a 4.64 xFIP this season (4th highest).

+ Fenway Park is the #3 most hitter-friendly park.

- Guardians have been a below-average offense vs. RHPs: .292 wOBA, .113 ISO, 85 wRC+.

- Guardians rank 29th with a 26.5% HardContact%.

- Guardians have hit an MLB-low 13 HRs this season.

Favorite CLE Bats: Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan, Josh Naylor | Bargain Bat: Josh Bell

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Texas Rangers vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

+ 8-of-9 Rangers hitters have a pOwn% of 7% or lower.

+ Schmidt is allowing an average of 93.5 mph average exit velo, 57.4% HardHit%, 9.8% Barrel%, 22.2% HR/FB Rate, and .403 opp wOBA.

+ Schmidt averaged -47.6% fewer FPPG on the road.

+ Schmidt is allowing a .513 wOBA and .410 ISO to LHBs.

+ Rangers have been on fire versus RHPs in the last two weeks: .273 AVG (4th), .363 OBP (1st), .358 wOBA (2nd), 131 wRC+ (1st).

+ Globe Life Field is the #10 most hitter-friendly park.

- The Yankees own a top-five bullpen.

- Rangers: 4.1 implied runs (ranks T-7th fewest on the slate).

Favorite TEX Bats: Nathaniel Lowe, Marcus Semien, Jonah Heim | Bargain Bat: Travis Jankowski

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

OF Kyle Tucker, HOU | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Kris Bryant, COL | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP), STL

1B Yandy Diaz, TB | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS

OF Hunter Renfroe, LAA | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Wade Miley (LHP), MIL

1B Nathaniel Lowe, TEX | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

OF Masataka Yoshida, BOS | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Shane Bieber (RHP), CLE

1B/C Tyler Stephenson, CIN | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3k | vs. TBA, OAK

OF Jarred Kelenic, SEA | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Alek Manoah (RHP), TOR

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Christian Walker, ARI | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

1B/2B Brandon Drury, LAA | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.6k| vs. Wade Miley (LHP), MIL

OF Harold Ramirez, TB | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS

C William Contreras, MIL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Luis Cessa (RHP), CIN

C Shea Langeliers, OAK | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Luis Cessa (RHP), CIN

OF Travis Jankowski, TEX | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

OF Joey Wiemer, MIL | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

OF Conner Capel, OAK | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Luis Cessa (RHP), CIN

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Jose Ramirez LESS than 0.5 Hitter Strikeouts

Nathaniel Lowe MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!

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