Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 4/27 | Dissecting Thursday's Five-Game Slate!

Author

Ryan Humphries
April 27, 2023

Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s another all-day MLB Thursday affair with games around the clock from noon ‘til night. A five-game main slate will land on our radar this evening and keep in mind that the first game of this slate will get underway at 6:40 ET/3:40 PT! It’s another one of those smaller slates where the viable pitching options are fairly abundant while landing on the right hitters/stacks will be the trickier part of the equation. Should be another fun one! Best of luck!

Also, happy Draft Day to my fellow NFL fans! And RIP Jerry Springer. Who else learned too many unwanted life lessons by sneakily watching way too much Jerry Springer as a kid? Trash TV at its finest. Speaking of trash TV, who’s watching the Mets/Nationals game tonight?

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Nothing much to touch on today outside of a low-end chance of some rain in the KC @ MIN game, but they should be fine there.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Shane McClanahan (LHP), TB | DK: $10k, FD: $11.3k | @ CWS

Consistency is a difficult achievement in baseball, but that’s exactly what McClanahan has been through five starts this season. Through 29.0 IP, McClanahan has maintained a 1.86 ERA, 3.28 xFIP, 1.03 WHIP, and 32.5% kRate. Perhaps what’s most impressive is McClanahan’s 20.3% Swinging Strike Rate, which is bested only by Jacob deGrom (21.2% SwStr%) and Spencer Strider (20.4% SwStr%) among MLB starters. He has also covered six innings in four-of-five starts this season, scoring no fewer than 20.1 DKFP/40 FDFP in all five outings.

McClanahan will draw a favorable White Sox opponent today. The White Sox have been a bottom-10 offense against LHPs this season: .214 AVG, .294 wOBA, 85 wRC+, 24.5% kRate. If we look at their splits against lefties over the last two weeks (113 PA), those numbers dive down even further: .150 AVG, .232 wOBA, 43 wRC+, 30.1% kRate. McClanahan racked up 10 Ks and 27.1 DKFP/46 FDFP against this same White Sox team five days ago. Oftentimes, I’d be a little hesitant going back to the same pitcher who is playing the same team within a week’s time; but when it comes to a pitcher of Shane McClanahan’s caliber, those worries are heavily suppressed. His DFS ownership will be through the roof tonight, but if you want a safe, high-floor pitcher, McClanahan is your guy.

Joey Lucchesi (LHP), NYM | DK: $6.4k, FD: $8.3k | vs. WAS

Lucchesi returned to an MLB mound for the first time since June 2021 last Friday and he certainly impressed. While he did face a Giants team that has been dreadful against lefty pitching this season, that shouldn’t take too much away from his seven-inning shutout performance where he allowed just four hits, two walks, and struck out nine. Lucchesi was trending nicely in three Triple-A starts before being called up, posting a 2.38 ERA, and 1.18 WHIP with 15 total strikeouts across 15.2 IP.

The Nationals have been sneaky good against LHPs this season so expectations following Lucchesi’s 34.2 DKFP/58 FDFP season debut performance should be lowered tonight. All-in-all, in 255 PA vs. LHPs, the Nationals are hitting .299 (ranks 4th) with a .336 wOBA (8th), 110 wRC+ (10th), with just a 15.3% kRate (2nd lowest). With that said, the Nationals are being pinned with just a 3.7 implied run total tonight while the Mets are slate-leading -240 ML favorites at home in the pitcher-friendly confines of Citi Field (#1 most pitcher-friendly ballpark). It all adds up to make Lucchesi the most enticing value pitcher on the slate.

 

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY | DK: $11.2k, FD: $11.6k | @ TEX

Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.5k | vs. NYY

Tyler Mahle (RHP), MIN | DK: $8k, FD: $8.8k | vs. KC

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Minnesota Twins vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC

+ Twins: 4.5 implied runs (ranks 2nd on the slate).

+ Zack Greinke is averaging -91.8% less FPPG when pitching away.

+ Since the start of 2022, in 16 road starts (81.0 IP), Greinke has posted a 5.44 ERA, 4.92 xFIP, 1.49 WHIP, 12.0% kRate, .307 opp AVG, .366 opp wOBA, and 1.90 HR/9 Rate.

+ The Twins have been a slightly above-average offense vs. RHPs this season (102 wRC+) but they’ve been considerably better against righties over the last two weeks with a 118 wRC+ (ranks 5th) and an MLB-leading .228 ISO in that span.

+ The Royals bullpen has accounted for a 6.10 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, and 1.55 HR/9 Rate this season.

- Target Field is the #9 most pitcher-friendly ballpark.

- Minnesota is averaging just 3.90 runs/gm at home.

Favorite MIN Bats: Joey Gallo, Byron Buxton, Trevor Larnach | Bargain Bat: Max Kepler

Baltimore Orioles vs. Joey Wentz (LHP), DET

+ Orioles: 4.4 implied runs (ranks 3rd on the slate).

+ Wentz has posted the worst 2023 results of any other starter on this slate: 16.2 IP, 7.56 ERA, 5.75 xFIP, 1.50 WHIP, 1.62 HR/9 Rate.

+ The Orioles just saw Wentz’s pitches five days ago and knocked him out after four innings while accruing six hits, two walks, and plating five runs.

+ The Orioles have been a top-10 offense vs. LHPs this season: .351 OBP (7th), .347 wOBA (7th), .174 ISO (8th), 123 wRC+ (6th).

+ The Tigers bullpen gives up a lot of home runs -- their 1.58 HR/9 Rate and 16.8% HR/FB Rate are the second-highest in the MLB.

+ The Orioles rank 3rd in the MLB with 26 stolen bases.

- The current BAL roster is hitting .222 with a .285 wOBA in 40 PA vs. Wentz.

- Comerica Park is the 8th least hitter-friendly ballpark.

Favorite BAL Bats: Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle, Jorge Mateo | Bargain Bat: Joey Ortiz

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Washington Nationals vs. Joey Lucchesi (LHP), NYM

+ Lucchesi looked sharp in his 2023 debut, but as mentioned in his pitching spotlight, the Nationals have been a sneaky good offense vs. LHPs this season: .299 AVG (ranks 4th), .336 wOBA (8th), 110 wRC+ (10th), with just a 15.3% kRate (2nd lowest).

+ Every Nationals hitter is extremely cheap.

+ Mets' bullpen has been fairly mediocre this season.

+ Even a two or three-man WAS stack would be enough to differentiate DFS lineups on a small slate; most WAS hitters have a <10% pOwn%.

+ The Nationals have played better on the road (4.50 runs/gm) than at home (2.82 runs/gm).

- Citi Field is the #1 least hitter-friendly ballpark.

- As good as the Nationals have been at getting base hits against LHPs, they rank dead last with a .089 ISO and 20.9% HardContact% -- so… there’s just not a lot of “pop” in this lineup.

Favorite WAS Bats: Alex Call, Joey Meneses, Lane Thomas | Bargain Bat: Victor Robles

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX

OF Byron Buxton, MIN | DK: $5.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Tyler Mahle (RHP), MIN

OF Brandon Nimmo, NYM | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

OF Josh Lowe, TB | DK: $4.5k, FD: $4k | vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), CWS

SS Jorge Mateo, BAL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Joey Wentz (LHP), DET

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

2B/OF Jeff McNeil, NYM | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

SS Anthony Volpe, NYY | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX

OF Max Kepler, MIN | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC

OF Trevor Larnach, MIN | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC

OF Lane Thomas, WAS | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Joey Lucchesi (LHP), NYM

2B Zach McKinstry, DET | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), BAL

OF Victor Robles, WAS | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Joey Lucchesi (LHP), NYM

SS Joey Ortiz, BAL | DK: $2k, FD: N/A | vs. Joey Wentz (LHP), DET

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Josh Lowe MORE than 0.5 Total Bases

Jorge Mateo MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!

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