Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 4/26 | Finding the Right Bats & Stacks on a Tricky Midweek Slate!

Author

Ryan Humphries
April 26, 2023

Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

Like, Subscribe, and Comment @ LineStar YouTube channel! You never know when we’ll shout you out or give you something cool. New episodes drop Mon-Fri feat. hosts Shannon Sommerville & Tyler Wiemann! Every episode is quick, informative, & easy to watch.

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

An eight-game main slate makes its way onto the mid-week schedule! Keep in mind that this slate will start up at 6:35 ET/3:35 PT with the LAD @ PIT game. While this slate may not be loaded with aces, it is going to feature quite a few solid starting pitchers so we may have a lower-scoring night of baseball on our hands. Landing on the correct hitters and stacks may be trickier than usual but let’s see what kind of game plan we can put together. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

SEA @ PHI (6:40 ET): There’s a good chance that this game will be affected by some rainfall but hopefully nothing heavy or long-lasting that would trigger a PPD. So, perhaps a late start or mid-game delay -- the latter of which would make starting pitchers a bit riskier. Temps around 50 degrees with 5-10 mph winds blowing OUT to center.

WAS @ NYM (7:10 ET): Similar forecast as PHI. Chance for some rain to cause a late start/delay. Temps around 55 degrees with 10 mph winds blowing OUT to left.

MIA @ ATL (7:20 ET): It looks like they’ll be dodging some storms in Atlanta tonight but, more than likely, they’ll play this game without issue. But be aware that a delay is possible. Winds OUT to right around 10 mph.

SD @ CHC (7:40 ET): Cools temps in the low 40s with light winds blowing IN from right/center. Quality pitching conditions.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.9k | vs. MIA

Elder is beginning to make a name for himself in the Braves rotation. Including his strong ending to last season, over his last nine MLB starts, Elder has come away with an impressive 1.44 ERA, 3.30 xFIP, 1.03 WHIP, and 25.1% kRate. Nothing about his game is flashy with a fastball that sits in the low-90s, but he has a quality four-pitch mix that has kept opponents in check. His DFS salaries are getting up there but, given his opponent tonight, he may be worth the more expensive price tags. Miami offers up plenty of strikeout opportunities given their 25.4% kRate vs. RHPs (6th highest) and they rank 24th versus righties with an 83 wRC+. Elder has pitched at least six innings in three of his four starts this season and he should be able to go six-plus innings again tonight and finish with six-to-eight strikeouts.

Drew Smyly (LHP), CHC | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.8k | vs. SD

Smyly heads into his fifth start of the season following a masterful performance against a good Dodgers lineup last Friday. In that game, Smyly threw 7.2 innings of one-hit baseball on 103 pitches, allowing no runs, and no walks, and he struck out 10 batters. On the season, he is boasting a 0.91 WHIP with a 25.6% kRate and he owns a slate-best 23.3% HardHit% and 82.4 mph average exit velocity. Cool temps with light winds blowing in tonight at Wrigley will provide for some great pitching conditions as well and Smyly has averaged +56.9% more FPPG at home. He won’t have a cakewalk match-up against the Padres but, so far this season, they’re posting a subpar .301 wOBA and 90 wRC+ versus LHPs. In 109 PA against the current Padres roster, Smyly has held them to a .198 AVG, .286 wOBA, and put up a 28.4% kRate. You can make a strong case for him in DFS lineups tonight and he checks in with some attractive salaries.

Steven Matz (LHP), STL | DK: $6k, FD: $6.9k | @ SF

Playing lefty starters against the Giants has been a common theme in the early goings of the 2023 season. The Giants are putting up some of the worst offensive numbers against southpaws this season -- .210 AVG (25th), .263 wOBA (last), .110 ISO (26th), 63 wRC+ (last), and a 31.0% kRate (2nd highest). Steven Matz is a fairly decent pitcher who has fallen on some bad luck this season. His 6.55 ERA through four 2023 starts may scare some people away, but his 3.66 xFIP tells us that he hasn’t been that bad. He’s also rocking a strong 24.7% kRate, 13.1% Swinging Strike Rate, and averages +38.5% more FPPG when pitching on the road. All-in-all, he’s set up as a very intriguing value option out of the $6k range on both sites.

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA | DK: $9.6k, FD: $9.8k | @ ATL

Anthony DeSclafani (RHP), SF | DK: $8.6k, FD: $10.2k | vs. STL

Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA | DK: $6.5k, FD: $9.2k | vs. OAK

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Luis Medina (RHP), OAK

+ Angels: 5.3 implied runs (ranks 1st on the slate).

+ The A’s are throwing another young pitcher onto the mound with Luis Medina making his MLB debut on the road tonight.

+ Medina has shown off solid strikeout potential in the minors but, in three starts and 9.1 IP in Triple-A this season, nothing is special about his 5.72 xFIP or 1.39 WHIP… and he’s shown some command issues with a 20.0% Walk Rate.

+ Angels vs. RHPs at home: .337 wOBA, .224 ISO, 113 wRC+, 38.9% HardContact%.

+ Medina may not pitch too deep into this game, leaving an awful A’s bullpen to handle the majority of innings.

+ The A’s bullpen ranks dead last with all of the following metrics: 6.84 ERA, 6.19 xFIP, 1.69 WHIP, 15.8% kRate.

- Core Angels bats are expensive.

- Several Angels hitters will be fairly chalky.

Favorite LAA Bats: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Hunter Renfroe | Bargain Bat: Brandon Drury

 

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

+ Rays: 4.6 implied runs (ranks T-3rd on the slate).

+ The Rays are averaging 7.29 runs/gm at home.

+ The Rays have dominated RHPs at home: .278 AVG, .386 wOBA, .249 ISO, 160 wRC+.

+ The Rays have seven hitters in the projected lineup who have a sub-20% kRate vs. RHPs.

- Hunter Brown is a solid starter (3.09 ERA, 3.91 xFIP, 1.20 WHIP) who has yet to give up a home run this season.

- The Astros boast a top-five bullpen.

- Core TB bats are pricey.

Favorite TB Bats: Wander Franco, Randy Arozarena, Josh Lowe | Bargain Bat: Harold Ramirez

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Oakland A’s vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

+ Sandoval has not been at the top of his game this season: 4.84 xFIP, 1.45 WHIP, 17.6% kRate, 14.1% Walk Rate.

+ The A’s have been very good against LHPs, particularly on the road where they have a .295 AVG, .368 wOBA, .205 ISO, and 138 wRC+.

+ Sandoval projects as one of the higher-owned pitcher’s on tonight’s slate -- 45% pOwn% on DraftKings, 36% pOwn% on FanDuel.

+ A’s bats are all very affordable with the most expensive hitter being Brent Rooker (DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.3k).

+/- The Angels bullpen has managed to maintain a 3.41 ERA (ranks 10th) but their 4.57 xFIP (ranks 24th) indicates some regression is due.

- The A’s have scored three runs or fewer in eight of their last 10 games.

- A’s: 4.2 implied runs (5th lowest on the slate).

Favorite OAK Bats: Brent Rooker, Jesus Aguilar, Esteury Ruiz | Bargain Bat: Jordan Diaz

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Randy Arozarena, TB | DK: $6.2, FD: $4.4k | vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

OF Mike Trout, LAA | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Luis Medina (RHP), OAK

1B Pete Alonso, NYM | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.2k | vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

OF Kyle Tucker, HOU | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Calvin Faucher (RHP), TB

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), CHC

2B/OF Mookie Betts, LAD | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Roansy Contrereas (RHP), PIT

2B/SS Thairo Estrada, SF | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Steven Matz (LHP), STL

OF Brandon Marsh, PHI | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

2B Nico Hoerner, CHC | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), SD

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF James Outman, LAD | DK: $4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Roansy Contreras (RHP), PIT

OF Jarred Kelenic, SEA | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

OF Harold Ramirez, TB | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

1B/2B Brandon Drury, LAA | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Luis Medina (RHP), OAK

2B Mauricio Dubon, HOU | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Calvin Faucher (RHP), TB

1B Wilmer Flores, SF | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Steven Matz (LHP), STL

OF Jack Suwinski, PIT | DK: $2.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Tony Gonsolin (RHP), LAD

OF Esteury Ruiz, OAK | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Bryce Elder MORE than 5.0 Pitcher Strikeouts

Jack Suwinski MORE than 0.5 Total Bases

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!

Represent the LineStar crew by using this as your DFS logo!