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Top DFS Offers 4/26/23 💸

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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

Like, Subscribe, and Comment @ LineStar YouTube channel! You never know when we’ll shout you out or give you something cool. New episodes drop Mon-Fri feat. hosts Shannon Sommerville & Tyler Wiemann! Every episode is quick, informative, & easy to watch.

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Someone feel free to correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe this evening’s 13-game main slate will be the largest slate we’ve faced thus far in the 2024 season. It is a behemoth! This slate has a little bit of everything, and fortunately, bad weather shouldn’t affect more than one or two games. There is plenty to get to, so let’s dive right into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• STL @ NYM (7:10 ET): Winds around 10 mph blowing OUT to left.

• CLE @ ATL (7:20 ET): 10 mph winds blowing mostly left-to-right, a bit IN from left at times.

• TB @ CWS (7:40 ET): Here’s one game that we’ll need to be a little wary of. It’s raining throughout the afternoon in Chicago but there is hope for a break in the weather and a possible window that they could get this game in. We’ll have to see how things are looking closer to first pitch to have full confidence in playing any player here. Field conditions may also be a concern. If they can play, there will be cooler temps in the mid-50s with 10-15 mph winds blowing IN from left. Quality pitching conditions.

• MIN @ LAA (9:38 ET): Winds OUT to center around 15 mph.

• PHI @ SD (9:40 ET): 15-20 mph crosswinds blowing left-to-right. Slight chance for a few raindrops, but nothing concerning.

• PIT @ SF (10:15 ET): Just making a quick note here -- you may notice that there are ~20 mph winds blowing OUT to center in San Fran tonight. Normally, that’s a sizable advantage for bats. But, remember that Oracle Park is designed to mitigate wind impacts. It is still worth giving hitters a slight bump but nothing significant.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Shota Imanaga (LHP), CHC | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.2k | @ BOS

There are “safer” pitchers you could spend up on for this massive slate but Imanaga makes for an ideal risk vs. reward play. By all means, he’s been stellar through his first four career MLB starts, coming away with a 0.84 ERA, 3.33 xFIP, 0.75 WHIP, 2.4% BB%, and 25.6% kRate. The concern here is that he’s been getting hit hard quite a bit with a slate-high 50.9% HardHit% and 93.0 mph average exit velo (bottom 5th percentile). So, he’s been fortunate to have come away largely unscathed thus far, and he’ll be pitching at the hitter-friendly Fenway Park tonight. But we’ll be going here for the K upside alone. Boston’s 30.0% kRate vs. LHPs is the highest in the MLB and they have seven players in their confirmed lineup that are currently rocking at least a 28.6% individual kRate against lefties this season. Despite their high kRate, the Red Sox have been a plus offense against LHPs based on their 105 wRC+ (ranks 14th). But as long as Imanaga keeps the extra-base hits to a minimum, he isn’t a guy who is going to walk many/any batters and he could realistically push for double-digit strikeouts tonight.

Luis Gil (RHP), NYY | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.4k | @ MIL

Gil makes for an intriguing mid-range SP option today. On one hand, you’ve got several positives to take away from Gil’s 2024 performance -- he leads all pitchers today with an electric 34.5% kRate, he’s allowed just eight hits on a .123 opp AVG across his 19.2 IP, he has yet to allow a single barreled ball, and he leads all MLB starting pitchers (min. 15.0 IP) with a 21.6% HardHit% this season. On the other hand, this man has had a major problem with issuing walks. His 20.2% BB% is the second-worst mark among MLB starters, trailing only AJ Puk (22.1% BB%) from Miami. While Gil has thrown at least 95 pitches in his last three starts, he has yet to pitch more than 5.2 innings in any start, largely due to those walks allowed. The Brewers are also a dangerous offense which ranks 4th against RHPs with a 121 wRC+. Their kRate and BB% are around middle-of-the-pack as well. But if Gil can manage to simply limit the free passes to maybe two or three walks while he’s out there, I like him to post a quality DFS score tonight.

Jose Butto (RHP), NYM | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8k | vs. STL

If you’re looking to save some salary while still getting a guy with strong K upside, Jose Butto sets up as a worthwhile target. He only has three 2024 starts under his belt, but his 31.8% kRate trails only the aforementioned Luis Gil on this slate. Opponents are hitting just .145 against him, though, he is another guy who has had some problems commanding the plate and has issued nine walks in his 16.1 IP (13.6% BB% overall). But he will draw a plus match-up against the Cardinals, who rank 25th with an 86 wRC+ vs. RHPs this season to go along with an above-average 23.0% kRate. Butto will also be taking the mound in the pitcher-friendly confines of Citi Field where, in 30.1 IP at this ballpark, he owns a 2.67 ERA, .168 opp AVG, 1.19 WHIP, and 25.4% kRate. This game’s 7.5-run over/under is tied for a slate low with the Mets being -136 ML favorites. Only two teams today (White Sox and A’s) possess a lower implied run total than the Cardinals (3.4 implied runs). Butto put up a pair of quality starts (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) to begin the season and he’ll be a solid bet to come away with a third QS tonight.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI | DK: $10k, FD: $11k | @ SEA

Corbin Burnes (RHP), BAL | DK: $9.8k, FD: $11.5k | vs. OAK

Zach Eflin (RHP), TB | DK: $9k, FD: $9.5k | @ CWS (Monitor weather)

Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.7k | vs. CHC

Joe Musgrove (RHP), SD | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.3k | vs. PHI

Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.8k | @ MIA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Ross Stripling (RHP), OAK

+ Orioles: 4.5 implied runs (ranks 6th on the slate).

+ Stripling is a low-quality starter who has struggled to a 5.34 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, and 7.8% SwStr% this season.

+ The Orioles are a top-five offense vs. RHPs and possess a ton of power: .768 OPS (4th), .337 wOBA (4th), .205 ISO (1st), and 124 wRC+ (3rd).

+ Oriole Park has been the #7 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season and the O’s are averaging 5.83 runs/gm at home (ranks 3rd).

+ Somewhat expected with a 13-game slate on the board, but this doesn’t look like a particularly high-owned stack today with no BAL hitter having above a 5% pOwn%.

- The A’s bullpen has been very effective: 3.04 ERA, 3.79 xFIP, 1.18 WHIP, and .229 opp AVG.

- Stripling has done well to limit the hard contact (21.1%) and he has allowed just two home runs through 28.2 IP this season.

Favorite BAL Bats: Gunnar Henderson, Ryan Mountcastle, Colton Cowser

Bargain Bat: Ryan O’Hearn

San Francisco Giants vs. Quinn Priester (RHP), PIT

+ Giants: 4.4 implied runs (ranks 7th on the slate).

+ Priester has only started once this season but, since making his debut in 2023, he has been a very underwhelming MLB-caliber starter across his 54.1 IP: 7.79 ERA, 5.03 xFIP, .290 opp AVG, 14.9% kRate, and 2.48 HR/9 Rate.

+ Stacking the Giants hasn’t been a go-to approach of mine this season, but they match up well against Priester’s two primary pitches (sinker and curveball), ranking 12th in xwOBA.

+ The Giants have been hitting RHPs better lately with a 123 wRC+ (ranks 3rd) and .349 wOBA (2nd) against righties over the last two weeks.

+ As noted in the weather section, Oracle Park is designed to mitigate wind impacts BUT the ~20 mph winds blowing out to center tonight will help well-struck fly balls travel a bit farther.

+ This should be another lower-owned stack with 8-of-9 hitters in the projected Giants lineup having a single-digit pOwn%.

- The Giants have averaged 3.46 runs/gm at home (vs. 4.77 runs/gm away).

- The PIT bullpen has been decent: 4.04 xFIP, 1.27 WHIP, .211 opp AVG, and 25.4% kRate.

Favorite SF Bats: Jorge Soler, Jung Hoo Lee, LaMonte Wade Jr.

Bargain Bat: Patrick Bailey

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Los Angeles Angels vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

+ Every Angels hitters has a pOwn% of 6% or lower.

+ The Angels have posted positive home splits vs. RHPs: .254 AVG (9th), .733 OPS (10th), .330 wOBA (10th), and 112 wRC+ (11th).

+ Ober is coming off of back-to-back quality starts but both games came against a bottom-10 Detroit offense -- overall, Ober has posted a middling 4.91 ERA, 4.27 xFIP, and 22.7% kRate.

+ Ober has allowed a slate-high 57.4% FlyBall% and 14.8% Barrel% -- that’s a bad recipe (if you’re Ober) at Angel Stadium (#2 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season, #5 home run ballpark) where winds will be blowing out to center field around 15 mph.

- The Twins have boasted a top-five bullpen: 2.60 ERA, 3.44 xFIP, 1.13 WHIP, .203 opp AVG, and 30.0% kRate.

- The Angels have been fairly strikeout-prone vs. RHPs this season with a 24.8% kRate (8th highest).

Favorite LAA Bats: Mike Trout, Taylor Ward, Logan O’Hoppe

Bargain Bat: Jo Adell

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

OF Mike Trout, LAA | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

OF Juan Soto, NYY | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Colin Rea (RHP), MIL

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL | DK: $6k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Ross Stripling (RHP), OAK

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Chris Sale (LHP), ATL

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX

2B Ketel Marte, ARI | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Emerson Hancock (RHP), SEA

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Logan Allen (LHP), CLE

C William Contreras, MIL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Luis Gil (RHP), NYY

OF Adolis Garcia, TEX | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Graham Ashcraft (RHP), CIN

1B Pete Alonso, NYM | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

SS CJ Abrams, WAS | DK: $5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Anthony Maldanado (RHP), MIA

OF Bryan Reynolds, PIT | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

3B Isaac Paredes, TB | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), CWS

1B/3B Alec Bohm, PHI | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Joe Musgrove (RHP), SD

2B Luis Arraez, MIA | DK: $4.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

OF Jung Hoo Lee, SF | DK: $4.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Quinn Priester (RHP), PIT

1B Justin Turner, TOR | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Gavin Stone (RHP), LAD

OF Byron Buxton, MIN | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Ryan O’Hearn, BAL | DK: $4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Ross Stripling (RHP), OAK

C Ryan Jeffers, MIN | DK: $4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

1B Anthony Rizzo, NYY | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Colin Rea (RHP), MIL

OF Lars Nootbaar, STL | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jose Butto (RHP), NYM

OF Daulton Varsho, TOR | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Gavin Stone (RHP), LAD

1B Nathaniel Lowe, TEX | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Graham Ashcraft (RHP), CIN

OF Mike Tauchman, CHC | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

1B/OF LaMonte Wade Jr., SF | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Quinn Priester (RHP), PIT

OF Jo Adell, LAA | DK: $3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

OF Jesus Sanchez, MIA | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Ran a little short on time getting today’s newsletter together for this massive slate, so I didn’t want to make any rushed prop picks. Regardless, Tyler & Shannon always have ya covered with some excellent prop suggestions in the video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!