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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Today is unironically one of my favorite sports days of the year with the 2024 NFL Draft getting underway this evening. There won’t be much MLB action going down around the same time as the draft since there is just one game (OAK @ NYY) that a first pitch time later than 4:05 ET today. So, as is typically the case on Thursdays, we’ll have most of the baseball action popping off early today with an eight-game (DraftKings)/seven-game (FanDuel) main slate set to begin at 1:10 ET! Keep in mind that the DK main slate will include one additional game (LAD @ WAS). I generally don’t put together a newsletter for these early slates but had some time this morning to whip something together. This will be a very brief newsletter so I can have it pushed out to the masses ASAP. With that said, let’s jump right into it! Best of luck and I hope my fellow NFL degenerates enjoy the draft tonight!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• CWS @ MIN (1:10 ET): Winds IN from right at 10-15 mph.

• BOS @ CLE (1:10 ET): Winds IN from center around 10 mph with temps in the mid-40s. Nice pitching weather.

• TOR @ KC (2:10 ET): This is the primary trouble spot on this slate. Some moderately heavy rain looks to be around throughout the afternoon with some nasty-looking thunderstorms further downstream. If they want to be patient, they could perhaps implement a lengthy late start and hope to play in less wet conditions later on in the day but they’ll also have to take field conditions into account. Unless the forecast clears up significantly, I’d tread carefully with this one since there is some very real PPD risk. For the purposes of this newsletter, no players from this game will be mentioned.

• HOU @ CHC (2:20 ET): Winds IN from center around 10 mph.

• SD @ COL (3:10 ET): Winds IN from right at 10+ mph with stronger gusts.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD | DK: $9.6k, FD: N/A | @ WAS

Unfortunately, Yamamoto is only going to land on the DK main slate but I’ll be looking to utilize him as a pivot away from the presumably chalkier Zack Wheeler (DK: $10k, FD: $10.6k), who could be more than double the ownership of Yamamoto. He’ll head into his sixth MLB start with a lackluster 4.50 ERA, but he’s pitched much better than that ERA would indicate based on his excellent 2.68 xFIP. Yamamoto also leads all pitchers on this slate with a 32.3% kRate. The Nationals are a sneaky good offense against RHPs (107 wRC+, ranks 9th) and they don’t strike out a ton (21.4% kRate vs. RHPs). But, after throwing a season-high 99 pitches in his last outing, I believe Yamamoto has a fairly clear pathway to a quality start (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) while racking up 6-to-8 Ks. He’s also backed up by a potent Dodgers lineup that should provide him with ample run support. Yamamoto and the Dodgers head in as major -195 ML favorites as well.

Javier Assad (RHP), CHC | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.2k | vs. HOU

We picked on a slumping Astros team yesterday with a low-owned Jameson Taillon and, while he didn’t necessarily break the slate (5.2 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 2 ER, 4 K, 1 W) he did manage to secure a respectable 17.4 DKFP/32 FDFP while falling one out short of securing a quality start. Assad heads into start number five with a rock-solid 2.11 ERA, 3.93 xFIP, 1.03 WHIP, and 25.0% kRate. He’s been outstanding against RHBs as well -- .118 AVG, .183 wOBA, .000 ISO, 0.77 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, and 27.5% kRate. Houston rolls out a RHB-heavy lineup and, over the last week, they’ve accounted for just a 55 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching. Houston remains a tough team to strike out, but if Assad can deliver six-plus strong innings to go along with a handful of strikeouts, I’d consider that a success. Pitching conditions are also nice once again at Wrigley with cool temps and 10 mph winds blowing in from center.

Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN | DK: $4k, FD: $5.5k | vs. CWS

It’s tough to ignore any starting pitcher against the White Sox, especially when they’re this cheap. Woods Richardson only has 15.2 IP in his MLB career, but he had a promising 2024 debut against the Tigers (6.0 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 1 ER, 5 K, 1 W, 1 QS -- 23.7 DKFP/40 FDFP) and draws an even easier match-up today. He’ll undoubtedly be very chalky, especially as an SP2 on DraftKings, but he’s some tough chalk to pass on at these DFS salaries. The White Sox remain the MLB’s worst offense versus RHPs with a .192 AVG, .260 wOBA, 65 wRC+, and 24.6% kRate.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI | DK: $10k, FD: $10.6k | @ CIN

Justin Verlander (RHP), HOU | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.1k | @ CHC

Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.9k | @ TEX

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

San Diego Padres vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

Non-Coors Stacks

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), CIN

Phillies: 4.5 implied runs (ranks T-2nd among non-Coors teams).

Martinez owns a middling 4.39 xFIP on the season and he’s allowing plenty of flyballs with a 49.1% FlyBall%. That’s often a poor recipe for pitching in Great American Ballpark where any well-struck flyball has a chance to exit the small dimensions of this stadium. The Phillies are hitting RHPs better lately with a 112 wRC+ over the last week (ranks 7th). They’ll also get some innings in against a Reds bullpen that owns the fifth-worst xFIP in the MLB.

Minnesota Twins vs. Michael Soroka (RHP), CWS

Twins: 4.5 implied runs (ranks T-2nd among non-Coors teams).

Strikeouts against RHPs have been an issue for the Twins, who own a lofty 27.4% kRate against righties this season (4th highest). Fortunately, they’ll get to face Michael Soroka today, who heads into his sixth start of the season with more walks (15) than strikeouts (12) and has posted an ugly 7.50 ERA, 5.75 xFIP, 1.79 WHIP, and 1.88 HR/9 Rate. Over the last seven days, the Twins are rocking a 124 wRC+ and .339 wOBA vs. RHPs, ranking them 4th in the majors, respectively. Even in a prime match-up against Soroka and a bad White Sox bullpen (4.77 xFIP, second-worst), the Twins bats continue to carry some affordable price tags.

DraftKings Main Slate Only

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Boston Red Sox vs. Triston McKenzie (RHP), CLE

Eight of nine Red Sox hitters carry a sub-10% pOwn% into this match-up today. Triston McKenzie is reportedly playing through a torn ligament in his right elbow and, while he has had a couple of solid starts this season, they came against the lowly White Sox and A’s. The underlying metrics on McKenzie are not looking good either as he checks in with a slate-worst 6.71 xFIP and 5.68 xERA. McKenzie also has a 20+% pOwn% on both DraftKings and FanDuel, so there’s some decent leverage to be had in stacking a few Boston bats against him.

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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No HR Calls contest today. Back at it tomorrow!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!