Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 4/25 | There Are Many Pathways to Success on Tuesday's Nine-Game Slate!

Author

Ryan Humphries
April 25, 2023

Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Tuesdays are for baseball, and every MLB team is in action today. Nine games land on the main slate, so we’ve got plenty of pathways we can go down to attack this one. Let’s jump right into things and see what we can put together today. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

SD @ CHC (7:40 ET): Temps expected to get down into the 30s during this game with 5-10 mph winds blowing IN from left. Bump to pitchers.

KC @ ARI (9:40 ET): The Chase Field roof is scheduled to be open tonight. Temps in Phoenix will be in the upper-80s at first pitch.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.5k | @ MIN

We’ve got plenty of “good” pitching options on this slate but no one I would consider exceptional. But with Nestor Cortes, we know that he can occasionally perform exceptionally on the mound. Nothing jumps off of the page about Cortes’ numbers through 23.1 IP this season -- 3.09 ERA, 4.87 xFIP, 1.03 WHIP, 23.7% kRate. He has put up back-to-back quality starts with 7 Ks against the Twins and Angels. Cortes gets another crack at a Twins team that has struggled to get anything going against lefties this season. Versus LHPs, Minnesota owns a poor .203 AVG, 76 wRC+, and they’re striking out 27.9% of the time (4th highest in MLB). This game has the makings of a pitcher’s duel with Joe Ryan on the bump for Minnesota. We’re getting a slate-low 6.5 over/under in this match-up, and Cortes should be set up for another strong outing.

Eric Lauer (LHP), MIL | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.3k | vs. DET

Lauer is another one of those “good not great” pitching options we have to choose from today. Much like Cortes, Lauer’s 2023 statistical results are nothing sexy -- 4.30 ERA, 4.86 xFIP, 1.26 WHIP, 20.4% kRate. However, he can eat through plenty of innings and covered 7 2/3rds frames in his last outing in Seattle. The major draw for Lauer today will be his match-up. Detroit is among the worst offenses in the league and they’ve been particularly awful against lefties: .215 AVG, .253 wOBA, .089 ISO, 58 wRC+, and they’ve put up a lofty 29.7% kRate. Lauer has yet to throw more than six strikeouts in a start this season but we should expect him to rack up quite a few Ks tonight while covering at least six innings.

 

Mason Miller (RHP), OAK | DK: $5.7k, FD: $7.5k | @ LAA

Taking a gamble on an inexperienced pitcher can often backfire but Mason Miller has some elite stuff and may be worth the risk as a DraftKings GPP SP2 target. Miller made his MLB debut last Wednesday against the Cubs and, while it wasn’t the smoothest debut, he threw 81 pitches across 4.1 solid innings, allowing two runs on four hits and striking out five. His average fastball velocity was at an even 100.0 mph against the Cubs and he reached a blazing max EV of 105.2 mph! Everything is a small sample size with him but Miller rapidly climbed through the minor league levels and showed elite strikeout prowess along the way. In just 8.2 minor league innings this year, Miller struck out nearly two-thirds of the batters he faced, coming away with an absurd 19 Ks. The Angels may not seem like an ideal match-up but they haven’t been great against RHPs this season, posting a below-average 97 wRC+ along with a 23.4% kRate. If Miller can pitch through five innings, he has a realistic chance to rack up double-digit strikeouts because his stuff is that good. But, as always with one of these inexperienced guys, proceed with caution!

 

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11k | vs. NYY

Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.8k | vs. MIA

Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR | DK: $8.1k, FD: $7.8k | vs. CWS

Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA | DK: $6.4k, FD: $8.8k | vs. OAK

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Atlanta Braves vs. Bryan Hoeing (RHP), MIA

+ Braves: 5.1 implied runs (ranks 2nd on the slate).

+ Hoeing only pitched 12.2 innings in the MLB last season, but the results were awful: 12.08 ERA, 4.99 xFIP, 1.89 WHIP, 9.8% kRate, 50.0% HardHit%, and he gave up five home runs (3.55 HR/9 Rate).

+ The Braves have had a .229 team ISO in the last two weeks.

+ No Marcell Ozuna in the Braves lineup.

+ Marlins have a bottom-10 bullpen.

+/- The Braves don’t have the greatest batting average against RHPs, hitting just .231, but they generate a lot of power, ranking 3rd with a 36.0% HardContact% and 3rd with an 18.2% HR/FB Rate.

- Hoeing has looked good in his 17.1 IP in Triple-A this season: 2.08 ERA, 2.25 xFIP, 0.98 WHIP, 29.9% kRate.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley | Bargain Bat: Sam Hilliard

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Spencer Turnbull (RHP), DET

+ Brewers: 4.9 implied runs (ranks 5th on the slate).

+ Turnbull is one of the lowest-quality starters on the slate. In 18.1 IP this season, he has come away with a 7.85 ERA, 5.61 xFIP, 1.69 WHIP, and .389 opp wOBA.

+ Turnbull averages -30.9% less FPPG when pitching on the road.

+ American Family Field is the #4 best hitter’s ballpark.

+ The Brewers have been a top-five offense when facing RHPs at home: .278 AVG (5th), .368 wOBA (4th), .211 ISO (5th), 129 wRC+ (4th), 36.9% HardContact% (3rd).

- Detroit’s bullpen has been fairly decent, putting up a 4.32 ERA, 4.23 xFIP, and 1.12 WHIP, however, they have allowed a high 1.51 HR/9 Rate this season.

- The Brewers have a 76 wRC+ over the last week.

Favorite MIL Bats: Christian Yelich, Rowdy Tellez, Willy Adames | Bargain Bat: Mike Brosseau

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Francisco Giants vs. Jake Woodford (RHP), STL

+ Giants: 4.8 implied runs (ranks T-6th on the slate).

+ Through 18.1 IP this season, Woodford has struggled to a 6.05 ERA, 4.97 xFIP, 1.71 WHIP, .438 opp wOBA, and he’s giving up a huge 60.3% HardHit% and 30.0% HR/FB Rate.

+ Woodford ranks in the bottom 5th percentile in average exit velocity and barreled balls allowed.

+ Woodford is allowing a .375 ISO to RHBs and a .234 ISO to LHBs.

+ The Giants have been sneaky good against RHPs: .352 wOBA (3rd), .212 ISO (3rd), 122 wRC+ (4th).

+ All projected Giants hitters have a 12% pOwn% or lower.

+ There are plenty of affordable bats in this Giants lineup.

- The Giants do strike out quite a bit vs. RHPs -- their 26.2% kRate is the third-highest.

- The Cardinals have had one of the best bullpens in the MLB and rank 1st with a 3.05 xFIP.

- Oracle Park is the #10 least hitter-friendly ballpark.

Favorite SF Bats: Thairo Estrada, JD Davis, Joc Pederson | Bargain Bat: LaMonte Wade Jr.

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Mike Trout, LAA | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Mason Miller (RHP), OAK

1B Pete Alonso, NYM | DK: $6k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4k | vs. Mike Clevinger (RHP), CWS

3B Austin Riley, ATL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Bryan Hoeing (RHP), MIA

2B/SS Thairo Estrada, SF | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Jake Woodford (RHP), STL

OF Jazz Chisholm Jr., MIA | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

2B Nolan Gorman, STL | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.5k | vs. John Brebbia (RHP), SF

3B/OF Patrick Wisdom, CHC | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Blake Snell (LHP), SD

1B Rowdy Tellez, MIL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Spencer Turnbull (RHP), DET

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

3B JD Davis, SF | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jake Woodford (RHP), STL

2B/OF Jeff McNeil, NYM | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

OF Mike Yastrzemski, SF | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Jake Woodford (RHP), STL

1B Vinnie Pasquantino, KC | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

OF Eloy Jimenez, CWS | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

SS Javy Baez, DET | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Eric Lauer (LHP), MIL

1B Pavin Smith, ARI | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

1B/OF LaMonte Wade Jr., SF | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jake Woodford (RHP), STL

OF Sam Hilliard, ATL | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Bryan Hoeing (RHP), MIA

3B Mike Brosseau, MIL | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Spencer Turnbull (RHP), DET

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Sam Hilliard MORE than 0.5 Total Bases

Thairo Estrada MORE than 6.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!

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