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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s a getaway day for many teams so we’ve got some all-day baseball action going on and seven games will make their way onto the evening main slate! No true aces are on the board for this slate but pitching is decent overall and the same goes for hitting/stack options. Weather also shouldn’t pose much of a problem so it’s full steam ahead! Let’s try to find the right pieces to the puzzle! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• OAK @ NYY (7:05 ET): Winds OUT to right at 15+ mph. Nice bump for hitters.

• MIA @ ATL (7:20 ET): Low-end chance for a stray pop-up but this one most likely plays dry without any issue.

• TOR @ KC (7:40 ET): Light winds IN from right.

• HOU @ CHC (7:40 ET): Cold temps around 40 degrees with 5-10 mph winds blowing IN from left. Quality pitching conditions.

• SD @ COL (8:40 ET): 5-10 mph winds IN from center/left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Reynaldo Lopez (RHP), ATL | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.4k | vs. MIA

I expect many to flock to Joe Ryan (DK: $10.4k, FD: $10.6k) against the abysmal White Sox offense, even though a chalky Pablo Lopez had a less-than-stellar outing against them last night. I have no major issues spending up on Ryan, especially in cash games, but we’ll spotlight a different guy to lead off the pitcher section.

After making most of his appearances out of the bullpen over the last four seasons, the ReyLo experiment with the Braves transitioning him back into a traditional starter has gone well up to this point. Lopez has recorded 6.0 IP in all three of his outings this season and has allowed just a single earned run (0.50 ERA) to go along with a 0.94 WHIP and 26.5% kRate. His opponent xBA (expected batting average) ranks in the 90th percentile of pitchers and he’s allowed just a single barreled ball (2.3% Barrel%). Lopez will occasionally throw a curveball or changeup into the mix, but he’s leaned heavily on two pitches -- the four-seamer (60.4% of pitches) and slider (25.6%). This sets up well against a Marlins offense that has posted a .193 AVG (3rd lowest) and .239 wOBA (dead last) against the RHP four-seamer/slider pitch mix. The Marlins are also posting a 25.3% kRate against those pitches, which isn’t extremely high, but a noticeable bump up from their overall 22.6% kRate vs. RHPs. The Braves (-250 ML) also head into this game as the heaviest favorites on the slate so we should anticipate another quality start from Lopez with a strong chance of earning the win bonus.

Garrett Crochet (LHP), CWS | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.2k | @ MIN

Crochet got ambushed by a hot-hitting Phillies team in his previous start but he’s been thoroughly impressive in his first season as a full-time MLB starter, so we’ll be looking for the bounce-back this evening. Through five starts, Crochet’s ERA is sitting at 5.61, largely due to that last outing (7 ER in 3.0 IP) but he has pitched MUCH better than that, evidenced by his 2.82 xFIP, 32.7% kRate, and slate-best 15.3% SwStr%. He’s also striking out both sides of the plate at a high clip -- 42.1% kRate vs. LHBs, 30.6% kRate vs. RHBs. And he has generated at least a 31.8% Whiff% from all three of his primary pitches (four-seamer, slider, and cutter). The Twins have been among the worst offenses against RHPs, but they haven’t been much better versus LHPs either: .212 AVG, .624 OPS, .277 wOBA, 80 wRC+, and 25.0% kRate (Twins rank 22nd or worse in every category). Target Field (#4 most pitcher-friendly ballpark in 2024) has been a safe haven for pitchers and Vegas is expecting a low-scoring affair here based on the minuscule 6.5-run over/under. He likely won’t get much in the way of run support from the MLB’s worst offense, but the strikeout upside combined with an enticing match-up will make Crochet a worthwhile target out of the mid-range today.

Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8k | vs. HOU

There isn’t a single cheap pitcher I’d be willing to place too many chips on today but Jameson Taillon is in a decent enough spot to succeed. After beginning the season on the 15-day IL due to a back injury, Taillon made his season debut five days ago. He got a bit of a layup, match-up-wise, against the Marlins, but he pitched five strong innings, allowing one run on three hits, and no walks, and he struck out four while earning the win. Taillon threw 73 pitches in his debut and should be expected to extend out closer to around 85 pitches in his second start tonight, if all goes well. The weather in Chicago tonight is a primary reason why I’m willing to take a shot on Taillon versus a slumping-but-still-hard-to-strikeout Astros team. It’s going to be cold, around 40 degrees, with 5-10 mph winds blowing in at the very wind-sensitive Wrigley Field, and we have just a 7.5-run over/under here despite two mediocre starters taking the mound in this game. As noted, the Astros don’t strike out much and their 17.5% kRate vs. RHPs is the lowest in the MLB. However, over the last week against RHPs, the Astros have mustered just a .188 AVG, .446 OPS, .204 wOBA, .038 ISO, and 33 wRC+. They have just 15 hits and six runs scored against RHPs in 86 plate appearances during that span. Houston clearly has some talent in their lineup, so it’s far from a guarantee that their struggles will continue tonight, but it’s not the best spot for them to get things going against Taillon, who was pretty sharp in his debut. Taillon will be lucky to garner more than four or five strikeouts tonight, but if he stitches five or six quality innings together, he may be worth the investment on his modest DFS salaries.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN | DK: $10.4k, FD: $10.6k | vs. CWS

Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY | DK: $8.9k, FD: $8.9k | vs. OAK

Alec Marsh (RHP), KC | DK: $7k, FD: $8.2k | vs. TOR

Spencer Arrighetti (RHP), HOU | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6k | @ CHC

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

San Diego Padres vs. Ty Blach (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Matt Waldron (RHP), SD

Non-Coors Stacks

Atlanta Braves vs. Sixto Sanchez/Kyle Tyler (RHPs), MIA

+ Braves: 5.1 implied runs (ranks 1st among non-Coors teams).

+ Braves vs. RHPs this season: .289 AVG (1st), .840 OPS (1st), .371 wOBA (1st), .190 ISO (2nd), and 133 wRC+ (1st).

+ The Marlins will be relying on bullpen arms today -- Sixto Sanchez, a former starter, will likely go two or three innings and he’s been poor in 7.1 IP in relief this season (6.14 ERA, 6.02 xFIP, 1.50 WHIP, and 8.8% kRate). RHP Kyle Tyler is expected to serve as the bulk reliever and is seeing his first MLB action since 2022. Tyler has not pitched well in 5.0 IP in Triple-A this season and he spent all season at the Double-A level last year, procuring a lackluster 5.60 ERA, 4.41 xFIP, and 1.59 WHIP.

+ Overall, the Marlins have had a bottom-10 bullpen this season: 5.04 ERA, 4.33 xFIP, and 1.57 WHIP.

-/+ Despite topping the charts in most key offensive metrics, the Braves lineup has not fully clicked lately (101 wRC+ L7Days) but this is a strong spot where many guys may end up contributing.

- Core Braves bats are expensive and hitters like Matt Olson, Austin Riley, and Ronald Acuña Jr. have not been returning value on those lofty salaries recently.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuña Jr., Michael Harris II, Matt Olson

Bargain Bat: Jarred Kelenic

New York Yankees vs. Joe Boyle (RHP), OAK

+ Yankees: 4.9 implied runs (ranks 2nd among non-Coors teams).

+ Yankees rank 7th with a 111 wRC+ vs. RHPs this season.

+ Some strong 15+ mph winds will be blowing out to right at Yankee Stadium tonight.

+ Joe Boyle had two solid outings against the Tigers and Nationals but also had a pair of blow-up games versus better offenses in the Red Sox and Guardians (allowed 7 ER in each game) leading to a poor 7.23 ERA, 4.64 xFIP, and 1.71 WHIP.

+ Yankees LHBs get a bump -- Boyle vs. LHBs this season: .313 AVG, .391 wOBA, and 2.23 WHIP.

- The Yankees have not been at their best at home where they’re averaging 3.91 runs/gm (vs. 4.69 runs/gm away).

- The A’s bullpen has been surprisingly effective: 2.81 ERA, 3.88 xFIP, 1.16 WHIP, .219 opp AVG, and 0.52 HR/9 Rate.

Favorite NYY Bats: Juan Soto, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo

Bargain Bat: Alex Verdugo

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Kansas City Royals vs. Yariel Rodriguez (RHP), TOR

+ Every Royals hitter has a < 5% pOwn%.

+ Royals have been an above average offense vs. RHPs: .719 OPS (8th), .320 wOBA (8th), .175 ISO (5th), 105 wRC+ (11th), and 20.0% kRate (6th lowest).

+ Rodriguez has allowed a significant 50.0% HardHit%, 18.8% Barrel%, and 91.9 mph average exit velo, which contributes to a slate-worst 6.57 xERA.

+ The Blue Jays have had a poor bullpen: 5.08 ERA, 4.44 xFIP, and an MLB-worst 1.69 HR/9 Rate.

+ The Royals have been at their best at home where they’re averaging 5.53 runs/gm (vs. 3.44 runs/gm away).

- It’s a small sample size, but through two outings (7.2 IP), Rodriguez has looked impressive with a 2.19 xFIP and a huge 40.6% kRate.

- The Royals have been slumping a bit over the last week: .217 AVG, .293 wOBA, and 87 wRC+.

Favorite KC Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, Vinnie Pasquantino

Bargain Bat: Adam Frazier

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Sixto Sanchez/Kyle Tyler (RHPs), MIA

OF Juan Soto, NYY | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Joe Boyle (RHP), OAK

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Ty Blach (LHP), COL

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA

2B Jose Altuve, HOU | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

OF Jazz Chisholm Jr., MIA | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Reynaldo Lopez (RHP), ATL

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

1B/C Salvador Perez, KC | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Yariel Rodriguez (RHP), TOR

1B Michael Busch, CHC | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Spencer Arrighetti (RHP), HOU

SS Bo Bichette, TOR | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Alec Marsh (RHP), KC

OF Brenton Doyle, COL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Matt Waldron (RHP), SD

OF Byron Buxton, MIN | DK: $4.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Garrett Crochet (LHP), CWS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

C Cal Raleigh, SEA | DK: $4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

C Luis Campusano, SD | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Ty Blach (LHP), COL

1B Anthony Rizzo, NYY | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Joe Boyle (RHP), OAK

OF Daulton Varsho, TOR | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Alex Marsh (RHP), KC

OF Eloy Jimenez, CWS | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN

1B/OF Gavin Sheets, CWS | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN

OF Mike Tauchman, CHC | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Spencer Arrighetti (RHP), HOU

OF Alex Verdugo, NYY | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Joe Boyle (RHP), OAK

OF Sean Bouchard, COL | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Matt Waldron (RHP), SD

3B Josh Rojas, SEA | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

1B Ryan Noda, OAK | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

2B/3B Isiah Kiner-Falefa, TOR | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Alec Marsh (RHP), KC

1B/OF Tyler Nevin, OAK | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

OF Lawrence Butler, OAK | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Reynaldo Lopez MORE than 26.0 Fantasy Score

Juan Soto MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!