Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 4/24 | Approaching a Balanced Monday Main Slate

Author

Ryan Humphries
April 24, 2023

Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’ll be jumping into a new week of MLB action with a comfortable seven-game Monday main slate! Things feel pretty well-rounded today with a quality group of pitching options along with plenty of interesting hitters and stacks. There will be no postponement concerns to worry about either. Let’s get right into the action! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

MIA @ ATL (7:20 ET): Winds blowing OUT to left around 10 mph.

NYY @ MIN (7:40 ET): Cool temps in the mid-40s. Slight bump to pitchers.

OAK @ LAA (9:38 ET): Winds blowing OUT to left around 10 mph.

KC @ ARI (9:40 ET): The roof is scheduled to be open at Chase Field tonight. Temps in Phoenix will be around 90 degrees at first pitch.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Sonny Gray (RHP), MIN | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.6k | vs. NYY

As you might expect, the strikeout machine Spencer Strider (DK: $10.9k, FD: $11.2k) will be the most attractive spend-up pitching option in a positive match-up against the Marlins at home today.

Sonny Gray sets up as a worthy pivot at the high-end range. Through 22.0 IP and four starts this season, Gray has allowed just two runs (0.82 ERA) next to a 4.01 xFIP, 1.18 WHIP, and 28.3% kRate. He’ll be taking the mound at home where he tends to pitch very well and averages +35.9% more FPPG. In 15 home starts (79.2 IP) since the beginning of last season, Gray has produced a 2.37 ERA, 3.35 xFIP, 1.09 WHIP, .204 opp AVG, and 29.6% kRate. Target Field rates out as the #9 most pitcher-friendly ballpark and those cooler temps in the mid-40s tonight will make it more difficult for batters to smack out home runs. The Yankees have been very average against RHPs this season (102 wRC+, ranks 15th) and their 25.4% kRate versus righties is the 6th highest in baseball. They have really struggled to hit righties over the last week (130 PA), mustering just a .192 AVG, .244 wOBA, and 54 wRC+. Gray will be a tad riskier than someone like Spencer Strider, but he’ll also have comparable upside and checks in with more affordable DFS price tags.

Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR | DK: $8k, FD: $8.5k | vs. CWS

Bassitt got ambushed in his season debut against the Cardinals (3.1 IP, 10 H, 4 HR, 9 ER, 0 K), but he settled in and has pitched well ever since. Over his last three games, Bassitt has managed to cover at least six full innings in each start while putting up 1.96 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, .156 opp AVG, and 22.7% kRate. His 4.67 xFIP in that time frame is concerning and indicates that he is getting a bit lucky, but maybe we’ll just have to hope that Lady Luck continues to be on his side tonight. The White Sox represent a decent match-up for Bassitt. They’ve been an average to below-average offense (93 wRC+ vs. RHPs, ranks 21st) and they’re playing without two of their better hitters (Tim Anderson & Yoan Moncada). Bassitt has thrown 107 and 109 pitches in two of his starts this season so we know that he can pitch very deep into games as long as he avoids a blow-up inning.

 

Colin Rea (RHP), MIL | DK: $7k, FD: $7.2k | vs. DET

Rea will be making just his third start of the season, but it will come in a good spot against one of the MLB’s worst offenses. The Tigers are easily a bottom-five offense against RHPs: .210 AVG, .269 wOBA, 71 wRC+, 25.2% kRate. All of their key offensive numbers dive even further down when facing RHPs on the road: .185 AVG, .252 wOBA, 58 wRC+, 28.0% kRate. Rea has managed a strong 0.94 WHIP through his 10.2 IP this season, though he’ll need to begin cutting down on his uncomfortably high 53.3% HardHit% and 93.0 mph average exit velocity (bottom 5th percentile). The $7k/$7.2k DFS salaries are really what makes him an intriguing DFS play tonight. The Brewers (-158 ML) are moderately strong favorites tonight, and we’ll be looking for Rea to cover five or six frames while picking up around a strikeout per inning. If Rea can do that while maintaining around a 1.00 WHIP, then he’ll likely end the evening as one of the better value pitchers on the board.

 

 

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL | DK: $10.9k, FD: $11.2k | vs. MIA

Jordan Montgomery (LHP), STL | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9k | @ SF

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Ken Waldichuk (LHP), OAK

+ Angels: 5.5 implied runs (ranks 1st on the slate).

+ Through four starts (20.0 IP), Waldichuk has come away with a 7.65 ERA, 5.53 xFIP, 1.85 WHIP, .431 opp wOBA, and 25.9% HR/FB Rate.

+ Angels are a top-five offense vs. LHPs: .287 AVG (5th), .359 wOBA (4th), 130 wRC+ (3rd), 35.1% HardContact% (4th).

+ The A’s bullpen continues to be one of the worst in the MLB: 6.99 ERA, 6.34 xFIP, 1.67 WHIP.

+ 10 mph winds blowing out to left at Angel Stadium.

- The core LAA bats are very expensive.

- Many of Waldichuk’s underlying stats indicate some positive regression is due and he has pitched well in his last couple of starts, earning a quality start against Baltimore and he threw five scoreless innings against the Cubs last Tuesday.

Favorite LAA Bats: Mike Trout, Hunter Renfroe, Shohei Ohtani | Bargain Bat: Zach Neto

 

Kansas City Royals vs. Tommy Henry (LHP), ARI

+ Royals: 4.6 implied runs (ranks 4th on the slate).

+ Tommy Henry is making his 2023 MLB debut tonight and has not looked sharp in Triple-A this season: 21.1 IP, 6.33 ERA, 4.90 xFIP, 1.45 WHIP, .280 opp AVG.

+ In nine MLB starts (47.0 IP) last season, Henry posted a 5.36 ERA, 4.97 xFIP, 1.45 WHIP, 17.6% kRate, and gave up 1.91 HR/9.

+ The Royals have struggled on offense this season but they’re beginning to turn things around. In 99 PA vs. LHPs in the last week, they’re hitting .297 with a .368 wOBA, .187 ISO, and 129 wRC+ while striking out just 15.2% of the time.

+ Chase Field has rated out as the #11 hitter’s park this season.

+ The Royals' offense has been much better on the road (4.50 runs/gm, 93 wRC+) than at home (2.70 runs/gm, 26 wRC+).

+/- The D-Backs bullpen has been decent for the most part, but they do allow quite a few home runs: 1.77 HR/9 Rate is the second-highest in the MLB.

- Over the entire season, the Royals have been a bottom-five offense and could easily dud even in a strong spot offensively.

Favorite KC Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, Vinnie Pasquantino | Bargain Bat: Matt Duffy

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Oakland A’s vs. Jose Suarez (LHP), LAA

+ Despite putting up some terrible results this season (9.26 ERA, 6.79 xFIP, 2.40 WHIP, 11.1% kRate), Jose Suarez is expected to be fairly high-owned (20% pOwn% on DK).

+ Oakland has been an above-average offense vs. LHPs with a 106 wRC+ (ranks 13th).

+ The A’s receive a sizable park boost going from their home stadium (Oakland Coliseum, #2 least hitter-friendly park) to Angel Stadium (#12 most hitter-friendly park).

+ The Angels bullpen has a 4.60 xFIP this season, the 4th worst in the MLB.

+ The A’s provide plenty of cheap stacking options with the most expensive hitter (Brent Rooker) costing $3,400 (DK) and $3,100 (FD).

- Oakland has scored three runs or fewer in seven of their last eight games.

- Oakland ranks dead last in the MLB with a 25.5% HardContact%.

Favorite OAK Bats: Brent Rooker, Esteury Ruiz, Jesus Aguilar | Bargain Bat: Kevin Smith

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA

OF Mike Trout, LAA | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Ken Waldichuk (LHP), OAK

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), CWS

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Tommy Henry (LHP), ARI

OF Byron Buxton, MIN | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Jhony Brito (RHP), NYY

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.2k | Brad Keller (RHP), KC

2B Nolan Gorman, STL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Alex Cobb (RHP), SF

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

2B Jorge Polanco, MIN | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Jhony Brito (RHP), NYY

C William Contreras, MIL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Matthew Boyd (LHP), DET

1B/2B Brandon Drury, LAA | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Ken Waldichuk (LHP), OAK

OF Eloy Jimenez, CWS | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jose Suarez (LHP), LAA

1B Christian Walker, ARI | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Brad Keller (RHP), KC

OF Esteury Ruiz, OAK | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jose Suarez (LHP), LAA

2B/3B Matt Duffy, KC | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Tommy Henry (LHP), ARI

SS Zach Neto, LAA | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Ken Waldichuk (LHP), OAK

OF Joey Wiemer, MIL | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Matthew Boyd (LHP), DET

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Eddie Rosario LESS than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Jordan Montgomery MORE than 17.5 Pitching Outs

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!

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