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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s that time of the week when we’ll batten down the hatches and take on another sizable Tuesday slate! Ten games hit the board on this evening’s main slate, and it should be a fun one! We’ll have a strong group of pitchers to choose from, quite a few viable stack options, and Coors Field is back in play. We saw a pretty low-scoring main slate yesterday with only one team (Twins) scoring more than five runs but I’d expect tonight’s action to be a bit more hectic. We also shouldn’t have to worry about too many weather situations, which is always a welcomed addition on a large slate. Let’s get it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• OAK @ NYY (7:05 ET): 15 mph winds blowing a bit IN from right, a bit right-to-left.

• MIA @ ATL (7:20 ET): Winds IN from right near 10 mph.

• HOU @ CHC (7:40 ET): Rain is expected to be clear, or in the process of clearing, around first pitch but some sort of delay cannot be ruled out. Assuming the skies stay clear later into the evening, they should be able to play this uninterrupted once they get going. However, we will need to run a final weather check closer to gametime just to be sure. Winds blowing OUT to right around 10 mph.

• CWS @ MIN (7:40 ET): Low-end chance of a late start. Chilly temps in the 40s with 10 mph winds, mostly blowing left-to-right.

• ARI @ STL (7:45 ET): Possible late start if some late afternoon rain hangs around but no issues are expected after that.

• SD @ COL (8:40 ET): Light rain in the forecast but they can likely just play through anything that makes its way over the ballpark. It helps that it won’t be too cold (temps in the 50s) like we saw last week. 5-10 mph winds will also be blowing IN from left/center. Overall, not the most favorable hitting conditions for a Coors Field game.

• BAL @ LAA (9:30 ET): Winds OUT to center around 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.2k | vs. CWS

Lopez is heading toward major chalk territory but, until further notice, virtually any decent pitcher is going to be in play whenever they’re facing this awful White Sox team. Lopez is, of course, better than decent despite a couple of poor outings early on this season. He heads into his fifth start with a so-so 3.97 ERA, but his 3.21 xFIP suggests he has gotten a tad unlucky and has pitched better than his near-4.00 ERA would indicate. He’s still rocking a strong 0.97 WHIP to go along with a 25.8% kRate and a slate-best 14.8% SwStr%. The White Sox firmly rank dead last in every meaningful offensive metric and their 64 wRC+ vs. RHPs tells us that they’re nearly half as effective (or ineffective, rather) as a team full of MLB-average hitters. Looking at Lopez’s three primary pitches (four-seamer, sweeper, changeup), we’ll also find that the White Sox are hitting for an MLB-worst .176 AVG against that pitch mix. Target Field has ranked as the #5 most pitcher-friendly ballpark this season, the White Sox own a pathetic 2.8 implied run total, and, despite having a very underwhelming offense, the Twins (-280 ML) are the heaviest favorites on the slate. Baseball has a funny way of causing things we expect to happen NOT to happen, but there aren’t many scenarios in which Lopez should fail in this spot.

Max Fried (LHP), ATL | DK: $8k, FD: $8.3k | vs. MIA

It doesn’t take an expert to point out that Max Fried, normally one of the most effective left-handed pitchers in baseball, has been very underwhelming thus far in the new season. Through four starts, he has come away with a 7.71 ERA, 4.41 xFIP, 1.96 WHIP, 11.3% BB%, and 15.0% kRate. While the results have been poor, he’s not pitching nearly as bad as his ERA shows. And there have been some good things about his game -- he’s forcing a 55.2% GroundBall% (93rd percentile), he’s allowing a low 83.8 mph average exit velo (95th percentile), and he’s surrendering just a 29.3% HardHit% (86th percentile). He’s also facing a Marlins team that his lone quality start came against this season, back on April 12th (6.1 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 1 ER, 4 K -- 20.7 DKFP/38 FDFP). The Marlins have had the most plate appearances against LHPs this season and they’ve been just barely better than the MLB’s worst offense (White Sox) against southpaw pitching: .199 AVG, .539 OPS, .246 wOBA, and 53 wRC+. Despite some ugly outings, the Braves (-250 ML) have won every game that Fried has started this season, and it's as good of a spot as any for him to put on a vintage Fried performance.

Michael King (RHP), SD | DK: $7k, FD: $9k | @ COL

Since taking over as a traditional starter late last season, King has gone on to put up some gaudy numbers -- 2.48 ERA, 3.57 xFIP, 1.15 WHIP, .212 opp AVG, and 28.8% kRate. He’s not the type of pitcher that we can expect to be consistently great, but the strikeout upside is great, as we saw in his last outing against the Brewers where he racked up ten Ks. The obvious risk today is that he’ll be pitching at Coors Field; but, as we pointed out with Dylan Cease yesterday, the Rockies have been far from great in their very hitter-friendly home ballpark. Rockies vs. RHPs at home this season: .231 AVG, .635 OPS, .286 wOBA, .116 ISO, 52 wRC+ (worst in MLB), and 29.7% kRate. Overall, they’re averaging a lackluster 3.50 runs/gm at home. Furthermore, the conditions at Coors Field this evening aren’t favorable for hitters -- cool temps with light winds blowing in. Based on DFS pricing, King feels better suited as an SP2 option on DraftKings, but based on the fact that he does have double-digit K upside in the tank, he’s worthy of some GPP shares on FanDuel.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Grayson Rodriguez (RHP), BAL | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.8k | @ LAA

Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA | DK: $9k, FD: $9.5k | @ TEX

Logan Webb (RHP), SF | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10k | vs. NYM

Paul Blackburn (RHP), OAK | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.3k | @ NYY

Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX | DK: $6.6k, FD: $9.2k | vs. SEA (DK SP2 Preferred)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

San Diego Padres vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Michael King (RHP), SD

Non-Coors Stacks

Chicago Cubs vs. JP France (RHP), HOU

Reminder: Monitor weather here.

+ Cubs: 5.5 implied runs (ranks T-1st overall on the slate).

+ France has not been great through four starts: 7.08 ERA, 5.37 xFIP (slate worst), 1.67 WHIP, 49.3% FlyBall%, and 188.0 feet average batted ball distance (bottom 15th percentile).

+ The Cubs match up well against France’s primary pitch mix (four-seamer, cutter, changeup, curveball): .346 wOBA (7th), .351 xwOBA (8th), and .189 ISO (6th).

+ The Cubs have ranked as the #1 home offense, averaging 6.20 runs/gm at Wrigley Field (vs. 4.75 runs/gm away) and winds are blowing out around 10 mph in Chicago tonight.

+ The Astros have had a bottom-10 bullpen: 5.36 ERA, 4.28 xFIP, and 1.52 WHIP.

- France has allowed a low 26.0% HardContact%.

Favorite CHC Bats: Michael Busch, Cody Bellinger, Nico Hoerner

Bargain Bat: Alexander Canario

Baltimore Orioles vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

+ Orioles: 4.7 implied runs (ranks 7th among non-Coors teams).

+ Canning through four starts: 8.05 ERA, 4.92 xFIP, 1.58 WHIP, 49.2% FlyBall%, eight barreled balls allowed (bottom 5th percentile), and 197.8 feet average batted ball distance (bottom 10th percentile).

+ Canning has been particularly bad versus LHBs: .370 AVG, .455 wOBA, .326 ISO, 8.71 ERA, and 1.94 WHIP.

+ Orioles have been a top-five offense versus RHPs: .792 OPS (3rd), .346 wOBA (4th), .219 ISO (1st), and 130 wRC+ (2nd).

+ Orioles have six batters in the current projected lineup that own a .370+ wOBA vs. RHPs.

+ Small sample size but, in 50 PA vs. Canning, the current BAL roster has a .326 AVG, .398 wOBA, and 12.0% kRate.

+ Angel Stadium has ranked as the #3 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season -- winds will be blowing out to center at 10 mph tonight.

-/+ Angels bullpen has maintained a strong 1.19 WHIP and .212 opp AVG, however, their 4.70 ERA and 4.31 xFIP are both bottom-10 figures.

Favorite BAL Bats: Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser, Jordan Westburg

Bargain Bat: Cedric Mullins

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Seattle Mariners vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

+ 7-of-9 hitters in the Mariners' projected lineup have a < 10% pOwn%.

+ Mariners: 4.8 implied runs (ranks 5th among non-Coors teams).

+ The Mariners offense has finally begun to turn it around -- against RHPs over the last week (160 PA): .321 AVG (1st), .858 OPS (1st), .389 wOBA (1st), and 162 wRC+ (1st).

+ Dunning is a serviceable starter but, based on his 3.91 ERA vs. 4.80 xFIP, he’s been getting a bit lucky -- Dunning is also allowing a slate-worst 93.0 mph average exit velocity (bottom 5th percentile) and has given up eight barreled balls (bottom 5th percentile).

+ Rangers bullpen has not been great: 4.86 ERA, 4.28 xFIP, and 1.37 WHIP.

+ The Mariners have been much better on the road (4.78 runs/gm) versus at home (3.15 runs/gm).

- Strikeouts are still an issue -- Mariners own an MLB-high 28.2% kRate vs. RHPs this season.

- Dunning has held RHBs in check (.196 AVG, .283 wOBA, .098 ISO)

Favorite SEA Bats: Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, JP Crawford

Bargain Bat: Josh Rojas

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Juan Soto, NYY | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), OAK

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $6k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

2B Ketel Marte, ARI | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Steven Matz (LHP), STL

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Jordan Wicks (LHP), CHC

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP), MIA

OF Adolis Garcia, TEX | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

1B/C Salvador Perez, KC | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

1B Paul Goldschmidt, STL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Tommy Henry (LHP), ARI

1B Michael Busch, CHC | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. JP France (RHP), HOU

SS Bo Bichette, TOR | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

OF Byron Buxton, MIN | DK: $4.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), CWS

OF Jung Hoo Lee, SF | DK: $4.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYM

OF Brenton Doyle, COL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Michael King (RHP), SD

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Jurickson Profar, SD | DK: $4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

SS Orlando Arcia, ATL | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP), MIA

C Cal Raleigh, SEA | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

C Luis Campusano, SD | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

SS JP Crawford, SEA | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

OF Daulton Varsho, TOR | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

OF Alexander Canario, CHC | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.3k | vs. JP France (RHP), HOU

3B Josh Rojas, SEA | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

OF Trevor Larnach, MIN | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), CWS

SS Masyn Winn, STL | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Tommy Henry (LHP), ARI

2B David Fletcher, ATL | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP), MIA

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but Tyler & Shannon have ya covered with some great suggestions in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!