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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Welcome back for a fresh week of MLB action! We’ll have a nice, tidy seven-game main slate this evening. At first glance, we’ll probably have to make some uncomfortable decisions at pitcher today, but the door is wide open for several offenses to put up some big numbers. The lowest total of the day is still at 8.5 runs, eight teams possess at least a 4.8 implied run total, and only one team (CWS) owns a sub-4.2 implied run total. Implied runs certainly aren’t everything, but the sportsbooks are high on offensive numbers today, at least relative to what we’ve seen up to this point. Weather also looks fairly cooperative across the board so we shouldn’t have to stress much on that front. Should be a fun one so let’s get after it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• MIA @ ATL (7:20 ET): Light 5-10 mph winds blowing OUT to left.

• TOR @ KC (7:40 ET): Strong 15-20 mph winds with stronger gusts blowing OUT to left. Solid boost for hitters.

• CWS @ MIN (7:40 ET): Low-end chance for a brief late start. Light 5-10 mph winds OUT to center/left.

• ARI @ STL (7:45 ET): Winds OUT to left around 10 mph.

• BAL @ LAA (9:38 ET): Winds OUT to left around 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Dylan Cease (RHP), SD | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10k | @ COL

As mentioned in the intro, this slate will force us to make some uncomfortable decisions at the pitching position. Dylan Cease is arguably the top arm on the slate, and he has performed very well through four starts (1.99 ERA, 3.96 xFIP, 0.93 WHIP, 30.0% kRate). However, the main caveat is that he’ll be pitching in Coors Field this evening. He has had some issues with walks (12.2% BB%), and I’m not loving the fact that his xFIP is nearly two runs higher than his ERA, suggesting some negative regression is due. The good news is that he still gets to go up against a Rockies offense that hasn’t even been able to be effective in their extremely hitter-friendly ballpark up to this point this season. The Rockies are averaging a modest 3.78 runs/gm at home and, against RHPs at home, their numbers are far from good: .663 OPS, .299 wOBA, .117 ISO, 60 wRC+, and 28.9% kRate. They’ve also hit just four home runs off of right-handed pitching at home, and their kRate remains sky high. The Padres (-180 ML) are hefty road favorites in this one and Cease is coming off of three consecutive quality starts (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) where he has notched exactly seven Ks in each outing. Cease has only one career start at Coors Field, which came last season, and it didn’t go over very well (4.2 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 4 ER, 6 K) but if you can stomach some risk, he has the upside to end the night as the highest-scoring pitcher on this slate.

Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.3k | @ KC

Kikuchi has been outstanding, particularly over his previous three starts where, across 17.1 IP, he has procured a 1.04 ERA, 1.97 xFIP, 0.92 WHIP, .180 opp AVG, and 37.9% kRate. His 2.52 xFIP across all four of his starts leads all pitchers on today’s slate and he ranks in the 89th percentile or better in kRate, average exit velo, breaking ball run value, and pitching run value. The catch with Kikuchi is that he’ll be facing a Royals lineup that has just a 17.8% kRate vs. LHPs (5th lowest) this season. The weather conditions in this game are also not very pitcher-friendly as there will be 15-20 mph sustained winds blowing out to left field with stronger gusts. The good news is that Kikuchi has allowed a low 19.6% HardContact% this season and he’s given up just one home run, which came back in his first start of the season on March 30th. And, while they have not been striking out a ton, the Royals have been a bottom 10 offense versus LHPs based on their 94 wRC+ (ranks 21st). I don’t imagine he’ll push for a massive DFS score today, but if Kikuchi keeps the ball inside the park, then I could see a 20 DKFP/40 FDFP type of score, which we’ll take on this sort of offensive-centric slate.

Albert Suarez (RHP), BAL | DK: $4k, FD: $5.5k | @ LAA

This is much more of a DraftKings SP2 preferred play, but if you want to go nuts on the big bats, I could see this working out on FanDuel as well. Suarez is the stone minimum (for pitchers) of $4,000 on DraftKings, so we’re not asking for much in order to return value. Suarez made his MLB debut with the Giants in 2016 and played sparingly in 2017 before being sent back down to the minor leagues. He spent most of his big league career pitching out of the bullpen before moving overseas and serving as a traditional starter in the KBO for the last two years. His first MLB appearance since 2017 came last Wednesday against the Twins where he pitched 5.2 innings of shutout baseball, allowing three hits and no walks with four punch outs -- good for 18.4 DKFP. The Twins have been one of the worst lineups against RHPs this season, so it wasn’t exactly a daunting offense for Suarez to make his major league return against. The Angels will pose a tougher challenge, but they’re also not crushing it versus RHPs, ranking 19th with a 92 wRC+ to go along with a 23.6% kRate (9th highest). Outside of Mike Trout and Logan O’Hoppe, no other Angels hitter in the projected lineup has above a .347 wOBA vs. RHPs this season -- and five guys own a < .280 wOBA. We can’t pretend that Suarez is an outstanding MLB-caliber starter, and there are several reasons why he had to rejuvenate his career in the KBO for the last couple of years, but if he can muster anything close to 15-20 DKFP, we’ll certainly take that on a day where there are a lot of enticing big bats to spend up on.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.9k | vs. BAL

Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL | DK: $7.5k, FD: N/A | vs. MIA

Chris Paddack (RHP), MIN | DK: $7.4k, FD: $6.3k | vs. CWS

Jonathan Cannon (RHP), CWS | DK: $6k, FD: $6k | @ MIN

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

San Diego Padres vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), SD

Non-Coors Stacks

Atlanta Braves vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), MIA

+ Braves: 5.2 implied runs (ranks 1st among non-Coors teams).

+ After crushing lefty pitching and ranking 1st in essentially every key metric last season, the Braves have yet to show off the same hitting prowess [against LHPs] this season -- however, they’re still a top-10 offense vs. LHPs thus far in 2024: .268 AVG (8th), .788 OPS (5th), .350 wOBA (5th), .183 ISO (3rd), and 118 wRC+ (8th).

+ Weathers has been able to maintain a respectable 2.70 ERA through his four starts, but his 4.97 xERA and 4.24 xFIP indicate some sizable regression is due -- he’s also allowing a 91.9 mph average exit velo (bottom 10th percentile) and has allowed seven barreled balls (bottom 10th percentile).

+ The Marlins have a bottom-10 bullpen: 5.30 ERA, 4.34 xFIP, 1.56 WHIP, and 66.2% Left on Base%.

+ Truist Park has ranked as the #5 most hitter-friendly park this season and the Braves are averaging 6.00 runs/gm at home (ranks 2nd).

+ A Braves stack may not be overly chalky with just two hitters having a >10% pOwn%.

- Weathers has posted a quality 24.7% kRate and the Braves have been fairly strikeout-prone vs. LHPs (24.1% kRate -- 12th highest).

- As usual, the core Braves bats are very expensive.

Favorite ATL Bats: Marcell Ozuna, Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley

Bargain Bat: Orlando Arcia

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), STL

+ D-Backs: 4.5 implied runs (ranks T-5th among non-Coors teams).

+ Lynn has skated by with a strong 2.18 ERA but a 4.71 xERA and 4.43 xFIP indicate some sizable regression could be on the horizon.

+ Lynn has surrendered a lofty 45.2% HardHit%, 51.7% FlyBall%, and a slate-worst 16.1% Barrel% -- his nine barreled balls allowed place him in the bottom 5th percentile of pitchers.

+ Busch Stadium has been a plus hitter’s park this season (#11) and the D-Backs are averaging 5.30 runs/gm on the road.

+ Winds will be blowing out to left field around 10 mph this evening.

+/- The D-Backs have been underwhelming against RHPs as a team (90 wRC+, ranks 20th) but they have four hitters in the lineup (L. Gurriel Jr., C. Walker, J. Pederson, G. Moreno) with a >.360 wOBA vs. RHPs this season, so they can string some runs together against righties.

- The Cardinals bullpen owns an MLB-best 3.20 xFIP.

- In 110 PA vs. Lynn, the current D-Backs roster owns a poor .218 AVG, .293 wOBA, and 29.1% kRate.

Favorite ARI Bats: Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Bargain Bat: Joc Pederson

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago White Sox vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), MIN

+ The White Sox have been atrocious but this will be a major leverage stack -- no CWS hitter has higher than a 7% pOwn%.

+ Paddack has been awful in his three starts -- 8.36 ERA, 8.98 xERA, 5.25 xFIP, 2.07 WHIP, 12.9% kRate -- if he was facing just about any other offense NOT named the White Sox, they’d probably be chalk.

+ It’s not saying much, but the White Sox offense has been more “productive” on the road (2.50 runs/gm, hah… vs. 1.82 runs/gm at home).

+ Every CWS hitter is incredibly affordable.

+/- No need to roll with a full five-man stack here -- even putting together a two or three-man mini CWS stack would be plenty enough to provide leverage in GPPs.

- The Twins have had a top-five bullpen: 2.84 ERA, 3.31 xFIP, 1.17 WHIP, 31.2% kRate.

- To no surprise, the White Sox rank last, or nearly last, in most key offensive metrics.

Favorite CWS Bats: Eloy Jimenez, Gavin Sheets, Robbie Grossman

Bargain Bat: Paul DeJong

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Mike Trout, LAA | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Albert Suarez (RHP), BAL

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

2B Ketel Marte, ARI | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), STL

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), MIA

1B Pete Alonso, NYM | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Keaton Winn (RHP), SF

OF Jazz Chisholm Jr., MIA | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

3B Ryan McMahon, COL | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), SD

C Adley Rutschman, BAL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

OF Jorge Soler, SF | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), NYM

SS Bo Bichette, TOR | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

C Willson Contreras, STL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

SS Orlando Arcia, ATL | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), MIA

OF Joc Pederson, ARI | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), STL

OF Jurickson Profar, SD | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

C Luis Campusano, SD | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

OF Bryan De La Cruz, MIA | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

C Gabriel Moreno, ARI | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), STL

OF Eloy Jimenez, CWS | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), MIN

1B/OF Gavin Sheets, CWS | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Chris Paddock (RHP), MIN

OF Daulton Varsho, TOR | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

OF Harrison Bader, NYM | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Keaton Winn (RHP), SF

OF DJ Stewart, NYM | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Keaton Winn (RHP), SF

SS Masyn Winn, STL | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

OF Trevor Larnach, MIN | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Jonathan Cannon (RHP), CWS

OF Austin Martin, MIN | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Jonathan Cannon (RHP), CWS

OF Michael Siani, STL | DK: $2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Dylan Cease MORE than 17.0 Pitching Outs

DJ Stewart MORE than 0.5 Total Bases

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!