Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 4/21 | A Wild 12-Game Slate Lies Ahead!

Author

Ryan Humphries
April 21, 2023

Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’ve got a wild slate on our hands today with a dozen games landing on the Friday main slate! As you could imagine, with 24 teams in play, we have an abundance of viable pitching options and a load of attractive hitters/stacks. And we very well could see a snow game in Minnesota! Keep your eyes peeled on a couple of these forecasts tonight. This should be a fun one! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

DET @ BAL (7:05 ET): Temps near 80 degrees at first pitch with winds around 10 mph blowing OUT to left.

TOR @ NYY (7:05 ET): Temps around 60 degrees with 10 mph winds blowing IN from center.

🌦️MIA @ CLE (7:10 ET):🌦️ Some concerns here. They’ll be hoping to get this game in between two batches of rain and there is a good chance things get a little messy during the game as well. If they can play, it’ll be a strong pitching environment with temps in the mid-40s. Definitely double-check this forecast closer to first pitch before locking in any MIA/CLE players.

HOU @ ATL (7:20 ET): Chance for some rainfall in the later innings but not a major concern.

❄️WAS @ MIN (8:10 ET):❄️ Unless they decide to postpone this game early, it looks like we’ll have a snow game on our hands! Temps will be in the mid-30s with periods of moderate to heavy snow throughout the game. Winds blowing OUT to center at 10 mph. If they do play, I can’t say I’d recommend hitters in these conditions but pitchers could work out well.

KC @ LAA (9:38 ET): 80 degrees at first pitch with 10 mph winds blowing OUT to center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI | DK: $9.4k, FD: $9.3k | vs. COL

So the safest pitcher on the board is clearly going to be Shohei Ohtani (DK: $10.8k, FD: $11.4k) taking on the lowly Royals lineup at home. I know Ohtani is incredible, you know he’s incredible, and there’s no need to go into detail on how he’s an elite DFS play tonight.

Aaron Nola is another ace who has not had ace-caliber stuff this season… but perhaps tonight is a much-needed “get right” spot. Through four starts (21.1 IP), Nola has come away with a 5.91 ERA, 4.45 xFIP, 1.45 WHIP, and 20.4% kRate. His xFIP being lower than his ERA does tell us that some bad luck has been involved with his pitching performances thus far in 2023. Much of the time this season, it has seemed as if he really just has one or two bad innings but he’s rock-solid in his remaining frames. Perhaps he’ll get back on track against a Rockies offense that has a 27.0% kRate and 75 wRC+ when facing RHPs on the road this season. The Phillies are enormous -335 ML favorites in this game and I believe it’d more likely than not that we’ll get six-plus strong innings out of Nola this evening.

Tyler Mahle (RHP), MIN | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9k | vs. WAS

Keep in mind that this game has some postponement potential if they decide they do not wish to play in the cold, snowy conditions that are forecasted tonight.

Assuming this game plays out as scheduled, Tyler Mahle is going to be a mid-range pitcher worth considering. His last couple of starts didn’t result in great DFS scores, but it was against some tougher competition (@ NYY, vs. HOU) and that won’t be the case tonight. In 15.1 IP, Mahle has put up a 4.11 ERA, 3.19 xFIP, 27.7% kRate, and .289 opp xwOBA. Washington heads into this game ranking dead last versus RHPs with a 58 wRC+ and there’s just not a lot of pop in those Nats bats, evidenced by a meager .081 ISO. They’re not the easiest team to strike out (19.4% kRate vs. RHPs, 6th lowest), but their overall kRate has been creeping up lately. And, for what it’s worth, Mahle owns a career 30.0% kRate against the current Nationals roster (40 PA). Target Field rates out as the #9 most pitcher-friendly ballpark and the Twins step in as heavy -245 ML favorites this evening. But, again, make sure they intend to play this game… in the snow!

 

Joey Lucchesi (LHP), NYM | DK: $5.4k, FD: N/A | @ SF

Lucchesi is not in the FanDuel player pool but if you want to make some extra room for bats, he may come through as a worthwhile SP2 option on DraftKings. Lucchesi has not pitched in an MLB game since June 2021 since recovering from Tommy John surgery but he’s been back pitching in the minor leagues since late last year. In three Triple-A starts spanning 15.2 IP this year, Lucchesi has put up a solid 2.38 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 15 total strikeouts (9.2 K/9). As solid as the Giants have been against right-handed pitching, it’s been a completely different story when it comes to lefties. In 229 PA vs. LHPs this season, the Giants have a .211 AVG, .267 wOBA, 63 wRC+, and 28.8% kRate. Lucchesi has 337.2 innings pitched in his MLB career so there should be little-to-no season debut jitters to worry about and, barring any sort of blow-up inning, he should be expected to handle a normal starter’s workload and work through five or six frames.

 

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAA | DK: $10.8k, FD: $11.4k | vs. KC

Jon Gray (RHP), TEX | DK: $9.1k, FD: $8.8k | vs. OAK

Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.6k | vs. HOU

Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL | DK: $6.2k, FD: $8.1k | vs. DET

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Taylor Clarke (RHP) & Ryan Yarbrough (LHP), KC

+ Angels: 5.0 implied runs (T-2nd on the slate).

+ The Royals plan to open with Taylor Clarke (career 4.92 xFIP) before handing it over to Ryan Yarbrough (9.00 ERA, 6.89 xFIP, 1.67 WHIP in 9.0 IP this season) to pitch the bulk of the middle innings.

+ Yarbrough may not cover more than two or three frames, leaving a bottom-five-ranked Royals bullpen to pitch much of this game.

+ Angels have been a top-five offense vs. LHPs: .291 AVG, .369 wOBA, 136 wRC+.

+ Angels are averaging 5.33 runs/gm at home with a 117 wRC+ (ranks 5th).

- With Shohei Ohtani pitching, he won’t be available as a stack option.

- Angels have posted a .293 wOBA, .090 ISO, and 83 wRC+ in the last week.

Favorite LAA Bats: Mike Trout, Hunter Renfroe, Taylor Ward | Bargain Bat: Zach Neto

 

Texas Rangers vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

+ In 15.2 IP, JP Sears owns a lackluster 5.27 xFIP and has allowed a slate-high 14.3% Barrel%.

+ Sears is allowing a massive .409 ISO to RHBs this season (46 PA).

+ Over the last week, the Rangers have been a top offense: .347 wOBA, .163 ISO, 124 wRC+.

+ The A’s bullpen is absolutely abysmal: 6.78 ERA, 6.30 xFIP, 1.64 WHIP, 15.7% kRate.

+ Globe Life Field has ranked as the #9 best hitter’s park this season.

+ The Rangers are averaging 6.22 runs/gm at home.

+/- Rangers: 4.5 implied runs (ranks 11th on the slate).

- The Rangers have been a bottom-10 offense vs. LHPs this season: .216 AVG, .274 wOBA, 74 wRC+. However, it’s worth noting that they have had the second-fewest plate appearances against lefties in the MLB, so some positive regression may be due.

Favorite TEX Bats: Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia, Josh Jung | Bargain Bat: Jonah Heim

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

+ Following a 10-game road trip, the Brewers return home where they have averaged 6.00 runs/gm with a .296 AVG, .394 wOBA, .224 ISO, and 144 wRC+.

+ American Family Field has ranked as the #2 best hitter’s park this season.

+ Nick Pivetta is allowing a slate-high 60.5% HardHit% and an average distance of 212 feet (bottom 5th percentile).

+ Brewers are striking out just 18.1% of the time at home against RHPs.

+ Brewers rank 10th in stolen bases this season.

+/- Brewers: 4.7 implied runs (ranks 9th on the slate).

+/- It’s not an extremely sneaky spot for a Brewers stack, but on a 12-game slate, they will not be incredibly high-owned.

- The Red Sox own an above-average bullpen that has not allowed many home runs (0.55 HR/9 Rate).

Favorite MIL Bats: Willy Adames, Rowdy Tellez, Christian Yelich | Bargain Bat: Mike Brosseau

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

OF Mike Trout, LAA | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4k | vs. Taylor Clarke (RHP) & Ryan Yarbrough (LHP), KC

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI | DK: $6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Noah Davis (RHP), COL

2B Marcus Semien, TEX | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.7k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

OF Cedric Mullins, BAL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), DET

3B Austin Riley, ATL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

1B Pete Alonso, NYM | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Anthony DeSclafani (RHP), SF

SS Willy Adames, MIL | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

OF/SS Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $5.1k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

OF Teoscar Hernandez, SEA | DK: $4.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Steven Matz (LHP), STL

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Seth Lugo (RHP), SD

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Rowdy Tellez, MIL | DK: $4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

3B Josh Jung, TEX | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

2B Bryson Stott, PHI | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Noah Davis (RHP), COL

SS Anthony Volpe, NYY | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

C Jonah Heim, TEX | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.3k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

OF Kerry Carpenter, DET | DK: $3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL

2B/SS Oswald Peraza, NYY | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

OF Sam Hilliard, ATL | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

3B Mike Brosseau, MIL | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

2B Brice Turang, MIL | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Marcus Semien MORE than 8.0 Hitter Fantasy Score

Joey Lucchesi MORE than 4.0 Pitcher Strikeouts

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!

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