Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s a day to celebrate over at the LineStar headquarters just outside of San Diego, CA. After not playing in a Major League game since Oct. 3rd, 2021, “PADRES CHAT” gets a significant offensive boost with the return of Fernando Tatis Jr. to the lineup tonight. And DraftKings goofed by pricing him at the $2,000 bare minimum! It’s safe to say he’ll make the “Bargain Batters” list at the end of this article.

We’ll be diving back into another small slate with five games set up for this evening! Keep in mind that it will be a bit of an early start with the first match-up (CIN @ PIT) getting underway at 6:35 ET/3:35 PT. Also, keep an eye on the weather in Chicago because some rain does threaten to cause some problems in the LAD @ CHC game. Let’s get down to business! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

LAD @ CHC (7:40 ET): This is the one game to monitor today with some scattered storms bringing forth the potential of a delay. A postponement doesn’t seem overly likely and, as of now, it seems as if the worst of the rain has already moved east of Chicago. Just be sure to do a final weather check here closer to first pitch. Some strong 15 mph winds will be blowing OUT to left/center so hitters would get a nice bump, assuming they play without (many) issues.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11k | @ SF

It’s a pretty lackluster slate for pitching and Senga is coming off of his first poor MLB performance against Oakland last week where he failed to make it through five innings and gave up seven hits (two HR), four walks, and four earned runs. The good news is that he still notched seven strikeouts through his 4.2 IP. He owns a slate-best 3.64 xFIP to go along with a 30.0% kRate, so the upside is apparent. The match-up with the Giants is an interesting one. San Francisco has an MLB-high 27.0% kRate against RHPs, but they also rank 2nd against righties with a .358 wOBA and 122 wRC+. So we may see Senga give up a decent amount of hits and a few runs, but if he throws around 100 pitches, he also has some decent double-digit strikeout upside. I don’t necessarily love him in this spot today, but with a lack of high-end options, he’s going to fall into play by default.

Matt Strahm (LHP), PHI | DK: $7k, FD: $9k | vs. COL

This will be more of a DraftKings SP2 play rather than a FanDuel option due to the significant salary discrepancies. Strahm has appeared in 211 MLB games and only 28 of those have been as a starting pitcher. As the Phillies continue to stretch Strahm out as a routine starter, his pitch count is going to be hard to trust as he has yet to exceed 67 pitches in any of his previous three starts. However, his last start was potentially cut short, quite literally, after slicing his left thumb on a warm-up pitch prior to the third inning (he still pitched the upcoming inning but was eventually pulled after laboring through 26 pitches to record two outs). Strahm has put up some very attractive numbers in his limited outings. In his 12.2 IP this season, he owns a slate-best 2.13 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 32.0% kRate, 14.8% SwStr%, and a 3.70 xFIP. An optimistic workload for Strahm would be 75-80 pitches tonight. However, that may be enough for him to return value on his $7,000 DK price tag thanks to a pristine match-up. The Colorado Rockies have had 86 PA versus LHPs away from Coors Field this season. In those plate appearances, they’re hitting for a meager .213 AVG, .257 wOBA, .088 ISO, and 56 wRC+, and they’ve struck out 26.7% of the time. The Phillies (-240 ML) are the heaviest favorites on the slate and if he can work through five innings, Strahm has some decent 20-25 DKFP upside with a win bonus attached.

Roansy Contreras (RHP), PIT | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.3k | vs. CIN

Contreras may be my favorite pitching option on the slate, so that really says something about the state of starting pitching today. He’s a little volatile and hasn’t put up great numbers this season: 15.0 IP, 6.00 ERA, 5.21 xFIP, 1.73 WHIP, 15.9% kRate. He has faced some tougher opponents (BOS, HOU, STL) but has looked solid in two of those games, holding the Red Sox to one run and three hits across 5.2 IP and earning a quality start with six Ks against the Cardinals this past Saturday. Contreras’ high strikeout upside hasn’t translated over from his minor league playing days just yet, but he was a pretty steady option last season when pitching at home where he held a 3.33 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, .200 opp AVG, and .284 opp wOBA through 48.2 IP. The Reds have been a bottom-10 offense when facing RHPs away from their hitter-friendly home ballpark. In 173 PA vs. RHPs on the road, they have come away with a .238 AVG, .316 wOBA, .088 ISO, and 92 wRC+ paired with a high 25.4% kRate. The Pirates are also heavy -170 ML favorites so Contreras should have a nice shot at snagging a win bonus as well.

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Michael Wacha (RHP), SD | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.7k | @ ARI

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Chicago Cubs vs. Michael Grove (RHP), LAD

Note: Monitor the weather forecast leading up to this game as there is some delay/PPD risk.

+ Cubs: 5.8 implied runs (T-1st on the slate).

+ Michael Grove has only had 13.0 IP on the road in his brief MLB career, but in that time he has struggled to a 9.00 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, .322 opp AVG, and .387 opp wOBA.

+ The Cubs were held in check by Grove five days ago, but the advantage tends to go to the offense when facing the same starting pitcher for a second time within a week.

+ Cubs have been a top 10 offense vs. RHPs: .277 AVG (3rd), .345 wOBA (5th), 112 wRC+ (8th), with a 19.7% kRate (5th lowest).

+ The Dodgers bullpen has not been great this season: 5.01 ERA, 4.46 xFIP, 1.55 WHIP, and an MLB-worst .295 opp AVG.

+ Cubs rank 3rd in the MLB with 22 stolen bases.

+ Winds will be blowing out around 15 mph at the very wind-affected Wrigley Field.

- Generating power has been an issue for the Cubs as they rank 28th with a 26.7% HardContact%.

- As mentioned, the Cubs did struggle when they faced Grove five days ago, getting just two hits and one run across 5.2 innings against him.

Favorite CHC Bats: Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Patrick Wisdom | Bargain Bat: Cody Bellinger

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

+ Phillies: 5.1 implied runs (ranks 4th on the slate).

+ Ryan Feltner may be the lowest-quality starter on the slate. He had an awful 9.92 ERA and 2.20 WHIP across 16.1 IP in the spring and through 13.1 IP this season, he’s come away with an 8.78 ERA, 5.18 xFIP, and 1.95 WHIP -- he’s also struggling with plate command evidenced by a 16.9% Walk Rate.

+ Feltner has not been much better and, in many regards, worse when pitching on the road as opposed to his hitter-friendly Coors Field home ballpark.

+ Phillies have been a top-five offense vs. RHPs: .287 AVG (1st), .353 wOBA (3rd), 116 wRC+ (4th).

+ Phillies are averaging 5.50 runs/gm at home.

- The Rockies have had an above-average bullpen.

- The Phillies have not made a ton of great contact: 28.8% HardContact% ranks 21st.

- The primary Phillies bats are expensive to stack.

Favorite PHI Bats: Trea Turner, Brandon Marsh, JT Realmuto | Bargain Bat: Bryson Stott

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Francisco Giants vs. Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM

+ Significant leverage against a high-owned Kodai Senga (41% pOwn%).

+ As noted in Senga’s write-up, while the Giants do have the highest kRate vs. RHPs, they also rank 2nd with a .358 wOBA and 122 wRC+.

+ After facing the Marlins (twice) and the A’s, the Giants represent the best offense that Senga has faced yet.

+ Giants have hit 28 home runs this season (ranks 3rd in MLB).

+ Most of the SF are cheap.

+/- The Mets bullpen has been middle-of-the-pack this season.

- Giants: 3.9 implied runs (T-last on the slate).

- Giants rank 20th with a 28.8% HardContact%.

- Giants are only scoring 3.33 runs/gm at home (6.13 runs/gm on the road).

Favorite SF Bats: JD Davis, Mike Yastrzemski, Thairo Estrada | Bargain Bat: Joey Bart

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

SS Trea Turner, PHI | DK: $6.3k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

1B Pete Alonso, NYM | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), SF

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

OF Ian Happ, CHC | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Michael Grove (RHP), LAD

OF Andrew McCutchen, PIT | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), CIN

OF Juan Soto, SD | DK: $5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

3B JD Davis, SF | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), SD

3B Ke’Bryan Hayes, PIT | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), PIT

OF James Outman, LAD | DK: $4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

2B Bryson Stott, PHI | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

OF Cody Bellinger, CHC | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Michael Grove (RHP), LAD

OF Jack Suwinski, PIT | DK: $2.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), CIN

OF Trayce Thompson, LAD | DK: $2.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

2B/OF Josh Harrison, PHI | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

C Joey Bart, SF | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM

SS Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $2k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI (DraftKings misprice)

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Trea Turner MORE than 8.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

Fernando Tatis Jr. MORE than 7.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!