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Top DFS Offers 4/19/23 💸

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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We haven’t had much evening MLB action the last couple of days but we’ll get back to it with a healthy 10-game Friday main slate! Pitching is fairly decent today and there are no shortage of intriguing hitters/stacks to roll with. Weather may be tricky in a couple of spots but, as of now, we shouldn’t expect a ton of issues outside of perhaps the Coors Field game. Let’s waste no time and dive right into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• TB @ NYY (7:05 ET): A bit of rain in the area could spark a delay/late start but a PPD would be very unlikely. Cooler temps around 50 degrees with 10 mph winds blowing IN from right, a bit right-to-left.

• TEX @ ATL (7:20 ET): Some light rain is a possibility in ATL this evening which brings some delay risk into play, but they may be able to play through it as well as long as no nearby lightning pops off. Warm temps close to 80 degrees at first pitch with 5-10 mph winds blowing a bit OUT to left, a bit right-to-left.

• DET @ MIN (8:10 ET): Chilly temps around 40 degrees. Winds will be blowing OUT to center around 15 mph with some stronger gusts but the cold conditions will make this more of a neutral environment, rather than favoring hitters over pitchers or vice versa.

• SEA @ COL (8:40 ET): This will probably be the one game that we’ll need to monitor closely. Temps will be in the 30s and there is some precipitation expected, which could end up being rain, snow, or a wintry mix. Just not great baseball weather so keep an eye out for this one.

  This game has been PPD

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Chris Sale (LHP), ATL | DK: $9.4k, FD: $9.6k | vs. TEX

Reminder: Keep an eye on the weather here as there is some chance of an in-game delay.

Sale lands in an intriguing spot today as he takes on the reigning World Series champs. Nothing is overly sexy about his 4.58 ERA through his three starts with Atlanta, but his 2.91 xFIP shows us that he’s been getting fairly unlucky and has pitched better than his ERA would indicate. He currently ranks in the 98th percentile in Chase% and has procured a strong 28.2% kRate alongside a 14.6% SwStr% and 1.13 WHIP. Sale has also allowed a very low 84.5 mph average exit velocity (95th percentile) and just a 27.3% FlyBall%. The Rangers have yet to get much going against LHPs this season -- they rank 23rd with an 89 wRC+ versus lefties and their .095 ISO ranks them 28th, just ahead of the White Sox and Marlins. If we dive even deeper, we’ll find that the Rangers do not match up well against Sale’s two primary pitches -- the slider (42% of his pitches) and four-seamer (40.9%). Against LHP sliders and four-seamers, the Rangers are hitting for just a .170 AVG (ranks 27th), .234 wOBA (dead last), and they’ve rocked a 34.9% kRate (5th highest). The Braves (-202 ML) check in as the heaviest favorites on the slate and if folks are going to avoid rostering Chris Sale simply because he’s facing the Rangers, then this could be a great leverage spot. It would not surprise me if Sale posts his best fantasy performance of the season this evening.

Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN | DK: $8.9k, FD: $10.2k | vs. DET

Ryan has looked solid in all three of his 2024 starts, leading to a 2.60 ERA, 2.57 xFIP, 0.92 WHIP, 2.9% BB%, and 34.3% kRate. I don’t always love chasing a pitcher who just had a great outing against the same team in his previous start, but Ryan did rack up 12 Ks versus this Tigers team six days ago while limiting them to one run on six hits and a walk across 6.0 IP (96 pitches). Ryan will face Detroit at home tonight and, over his career, he has been noticeable better on his home mound at Target Field, which currently ranks as the #3 most pitcher-friendly ballpark. Detroit’s .214 AVG vs. RHPs checks in at 25th to go along with an 89 wRC+ (21st) and 24.5% kRate (8th highest). There will be some strong winds blowing out to center tonight but, as mentioned in the weather section, the cold temps in the 40s will make this much more of a neutral playing field.

Jack Flaherty (RHP), DET | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.8k | @ MIN

We’ll now go to the other side of this game and spotlight Joe Ryan’s counterpart, Jack Flaherty. For those who remember, Flaherty was looking like he was trending toward ace status several years back (2018-2019) before some injuries derailed his momentum. He has flashed some of his old upside early on in his Tigers tenure and heads into his fourth start of 2024 with a quality 3.15 xFIP, 25.3% kRate, 14.6% SwStr%, and 3.8% BB% while allowing a low 86.1 mph average exit velo (top 80th percentile). The match-up may be the most appealing aspect of Flaherty’s DFS viability today. The Twins have been downright awful against RHPs: .182 AVG (last), .589 OPS (last), .271 wOBA (29th), and 76 wRC+ (29th). The Twins have also averaged a paltry 2.20 runs/gm in five home games this season. It’s not a significant surprise to see this game hold a slate-low 7.0 over/under and both starting pitchers deserve some consideration.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL | DK: $9.5k, FD: $11.2k | @ STL

Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY | DK: $7.9k, FD: $7.9k | vs. TB

Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL | DK: $6.6k, FD: $9k | @ KC (DK Preferred)

Yariel Rodriguez (RHP), TOR | DK: $5k, FD: $7.3k | @ SD (DK GPP SP2 Punt Play)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Reminder: Weather is looking ‘iffy’ here. A postponement is not out of the picture.

Seattle Mariners vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Emerson Hancock (RHP), SEA

Non-Coors Stacks

Baltimore Orioles vs. Alec Marsh (RHP), KC

+ Orioles: 4.9 implied runs (ranks T-2nd among non-Coors teams).

+ Orioles have been excellent versus RHPs: .267 AVG (5th), .801 OPS (3rd), .349 wOBA (3rd), .219 ISO (1st), 35.4% HardContact% (1st), and 132 wRC+ (2nd).

+ Orioles ownt he 3rd highest average exit velocity (91.4 mph) against Marsh’s three primary pitches (four-seamer, slider, curveball).

+ Marsh has his moments but is overall a very average starter -- he heads into his fourth outing of 2024 with a 4.32 ERA, 4.23 xFIP, and a low 14.7% kRate.

+ The Royals bullpen has maintained a decent 3.60 ERA (12th best) but they are due for significant regression based on their 5.13 xFIP (2nd worst).

+ The Orioles are getting production from every part of their lineup so you can get creative with the team stacks here.

- This may be a fairly chalky stack, especially for a 10-game slate, as four BAL hitters currently have a > 15% pOwn%.

- Very small sample size, but in 22 PA against Marsh, the current BAL roster has posted a .095 AVG.

Favorite BAL Bats: Gunnar Henderson, Ryan O’Hearn, Jordan Westburg

Bargain Bat: Colton Cowser

New York Yankees vs. Tyler Alexander (LHP), TB

+ Yankees: 4.7 implied runs (ranks 4th among non-Coors teams).

+ In three outings (one start), Alexander has been pretty awful: 6.46 ERA, 5.28 xFIP, 1.63 WHIP, 54.7% FlyBall%.

+ Alexander has allowed an average batted ball distance of 205.8 feet (bottom 5th percentile).

+ Yankees rank 8th with a 120 wRC+ vs. LHPs.

+ The Rays bullpen has been awful this season: 6.00 ERA, 5.13 xFIP, 1.63 WHIP, and 1.56 HR/9 Rate.

+ Every hitter in the NYY lineup has a < 10% pOwn%.

- Not the best hitting conditions at Yankee Stadium today with cool temps in 10 mph winds blowing in from right.

- Alexander is allowing a low average exit velocity of 85.3 mph (top 85th percentile).

Favorite NYY Bats: Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Anthony Volpe

Bargain Bat: Oswaldo Cabrera

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Cleveland Guardians vs. Joe Boyle (RHP), OAK

+ Every hitter in the CLE lineup has a < 8% pOwn%.

+ The Guardians have been an above average offense vs. RHPs (101 wRC+, ranks 11th) and they’re a very difficult team to strike out (19.5% kRate, 6th lowest).

+ The Guardians are rolling out eight lefty/switch hitters in their lineup today -- Boyle vs. LHBs: .367 AVG, .436 wOBA, 5.68 ERA, 4.91 xFIP, and 2.84 WHIP.

- The A’s bullpen has been surprisingly solid: 2.58 ERA, 3.89 xFIP, 1.16 WHIP, and .215 opp AVG.

- Boyle has allowed an 85.1 mph average exit velocity (top 90th percentile).

Favorite CLE Bats: Josh Naylor, Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan

Bargain Bat: Brayan Rocchio

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

2B/SS Mookie Betts, LAD | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), NYM

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

OF Juan Soto, NYY | DK: $6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Tyler Alexander (LHP), TB

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Yariel Rodriguez (RHP), TOR

OF Adolis Garcia, TEX | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Chris Sale (LHP), ATL

2B Ketel Marte, ARI | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Blake Snell (LHP), SF

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Alec Marsh (RHP), KC

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX

1B Pete Alonso, NYM | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD

C William Contreras, MIL | DK: $5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), STL

OF Jorge Soler, SF | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), ARI

SS Ezequiel Tovar, COL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Emerson Hancock (RHP), SEA

1B Josh Naylor, CLE | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Joe Boyle (RHP), OAK

SS Bo Bichette, TOR | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Matt Waldron (RHP), SD

2B Zack Gelof, OAK | DK: $4.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Triston McKenzie (RHP), CLE

OF Mitch Haniger, SEA | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), COL

C Willson Contreras, STL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL

2B/OF Amed Rosario, TB | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

SS Orlando Arcia, ATL | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX

OF Colton Cowser, BAL | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Alec Marsh (RHP), KC

OF Cedric Mullins, BAL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Alec Marsh (RHP), KC

OF Sal Frelick, MIL | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), STL

1B/OF Ryan O’Hearn, BAL | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Alec Marsh (RHP), KC

OF Kerry Carpenter, DET | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN

OF Jackson Merrill, SD | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Yariel Rodriguez (RHP), TOR

3B Oswaldo Cabrera, NYY | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Tyler Alexander (LHP), TB

OF Dalton Varsho, TOR | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Matt Waldron (RHP), SD

2B Michael Massey, KC | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but Tyler has ya covered with some great suggestions in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!