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- Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 4/19 | Digging Into Tonight's Small Four-Game Slate Action!
Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 4/19 | Digging Into Tonight's Small Four-Game Slate Action!
Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.
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Main Slate Rundown 🏟
It’s another all-day baseball extravaganza with all 30 teams hitting the diamond today. The DFS slates are split up throughout the afternoon and into the evening and we’ll only be left with a four-game “night” or “after hours” slate, as the DraftKings and FanDuel have dubbed them. In terms of pitching and hitting/stack options, it’s not the sexiest four-game slate but these games are all expected to be tightly contested with the heaviest favorite owning -150 moneyline odds. Hopefully, everyone who got in on the afternoon action is en route to a profitable start to the day. Best of luck if you’re getting involved with this evening’s slate as well!
Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:
Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️
Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.
LAA @ NYY (7:05 ET): Winds blowing OUT to right around 10 mph.
MIN @ BOS (7:10 ET): Winds blowing OUT to right around 10 mph.
Pitchers to Consider ⚾
Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN | DK: $9.6k, FD: $11k | @ BOS
Ryan may not draw a cakewalk match-up today but he has put up some of the most impressive results of any MLB starter in the early season. Through three starts (19.0 IP), Ryan has claimed a win in all three match-ups (@ KC, vs. HOU, @ NYY) while putting up a 2.84 ERA, 2.78 xFIP, 0.63 WHIP, 37.1% kRate, and a 15.7% Swinging Strike Rate. His toughest challenges came in those previous two starts against the Astros and Yankees, and he notched 10 strikeouts in both games while surrendering just three hits apiece. He’s truly showing some ace-caliber stuff thus far and opponents are hitting .134 with a .200 wOBA against him. Boston is not a bad offense but, up to this point, they’re posting a subpar 94 wRC+ vs. RHPs (ranks 19th) and they check in at 21st with a 29.7% HardContact%. Fenway Park is the #3 least pitcher-friendly ballpark and there will be some wind blowing out to right field tonight. But, all-in-all, he’s shown enough talent on the mound to make him a very attractive spend-up option on this small slate.
Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.3k | vs. WAS
On April 3rd, Bradish exited his first start of the season due to a right foot injury after throwing only 28 pitches. After a brief stint on the 15-day IL, he is set to make his second start of the year tonight. Bradish threw 83 pitches in a rehab start five days ago so he should not face many, if any, pitch restrictions. He’ll be set up with a stellar match-up against a Nationals offense that ranks dead last versus RHPs with a 62 wRC+. Washington is also putting up a basement-dwelling .219 AVG, .086 wOBA, and .269 wOBA against righties. The one thing their offense is good at is avoiding strikeouts with an 18.5% kRate vs. RHPs, the third-lowest in the MLB. But Bradish is cheap and the hope for him would be to put up a quality start (6.0+ IP, <3 ER allowed) while picking up a handful of strikeouts along the way. As mentioned in the intro, the heaviest favorite on this small slate has -150 ML odds, and that happens to be the Baltimore Orioles today. It’s not a high-confidence play, but Bradish does have the potential to return around a 20 DKFP/35 FDFP result in this strong match-up.
Other Pitchers to Consider:
Corey Kluber (RHP), BOS | DK: $7.6k, FD: $6.9k | vs. MIN
MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS | DK: $7.3k, FD: $9.8k | @ BAL
Team Stacks to Target 🎯
Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.
Houston Astros vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR
+ Astros: 4.8 implied runs (T-1st on the slate).
+ Jose Berrios averaged -48.0% less when pitching away, and he has struggled in both of his 2023 road starts.
+ In 97 PA vs. Berrios, the current Astros roster has a .286 AVG, .351 wOBA, and .242 ISO.
+ Berrios is allowing a slate-high 54.5% HardHit%.
- The Astros have been a fairly average offense vs. RHPs: 97 wRC+ (ranks 16th).
- The Blue Jays own a top-10 bullpen.
Favorite HOU Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman | Bargain Bat: Mauricio Dubon
New York Yankees vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA
+ Yankees: 4.8 implied runs (T-1st on the slate).
+ In 94.1 IP on the road in his career, Canning has a lackluster 4.77 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, .333 opp wOBA, and 1.62 HR/9 Rate.
+ Canning missed all of 2022 with an injury and is making just his second MLB start since July 2021. He may not be fully stretched out after throwing just 69 pitches against the Nationals last Wednesday.
+ The Yankees have been an above-average offense vs. RHPs (109 wRC+, ranks 10th) and they’ve shown solid power with a .202 ISO (6th) and 19.5% HR/FB Rate (3rd).
+ Wind will be blowing out to right around 10 mph at Yankee Stadium.
+ Aside from Aaron Judge, this is a fairly affordable stack no matter where else you go in the batting order.
+ Yankees rank 8th with 17 stolen bases this season.
+/- The Angels have a decent, but not overpowering bullpen.
- A couple of the top Yankees hitters (Giancarlo Stanton & Josh Donaldson) are out with injuries.
- Yankees in the last seven days: .274 wOBA & 72 wRC+.
Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu | Bargain Bat: Anthony Volpe
Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔
Los Angeles Angels vs. Jhony Brito (RHP), NYY
+ Outside of Shohei Ohtani and perhaps Mike Trout, the remaining Angels bats should be <10% on this small slate.
+ Jhony Brito is an inexperienced pitcher whose confidence may be shaken after lasting just two-thirds of an inning in his last start (vs. MIN), giving up 7 ER on six hits and a walk.
+ Brito has allowed a slate-high 10.9% Barrel% and .414 xwOBA.
+ Wind will be blowing out to right around 10 mph at Yankee Stadium.
- The Angels have been a below-average offense vs. RHPs: .226 AVG, .304 wOBA, 91 wRC+.
- The Yankees have a top-10 bullpen.
Favorite LAA Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, Hunter Renfroe | Bargain Bat: Anthony Rendon
One-Off Bats ☝️
A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.
OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA
OF Mike Trout, LAA | DK: $6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Jhony Brito (RHP), NYY
OF Kyle Tucker, HOU | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR
3B Matt Chapman, TOR | DK: $5k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Luis Garcia (RHP), HOU
OF Byron Buxton, MIN | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Corey Kluber (RHP), BOS
SS Jorge Mateo, BAL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $4.1k | vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS
Bargain Batters 💸
Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.
Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings
OF Austin Hays, BAL | DK: $4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS
3B Anthony Rendon, LAA | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Jhony Brito (RHP), NYY
1B Jose Abreu, HOU | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR
SS Anthony Volpe, NYY | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA
2B/OF Whit Merrifield, TOR | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Luis Garcia (RHP), HOU
3B Jeimer Candelario, WAS | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL
2B Mauricio Dubon, HOU | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR
2B Luis Garcia, WAS | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL
Home Run Calls of the Day 💣
🔥 Home Run Calls 🔥
@ShannonOnSports- Juan Soto
@flattyler83- Yordan Alvarez
@Ryan_Humphries- Kyle TuckerRetweet, and if your expert's player hits a home run, you could win $25 or a 1-month subscription! We'll match each expert's call with 3 lucky retweeters. Let's hit… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
— 𝗟𝗜𝗡𝗘𝗦𝗧𝗔𝗥 𝗗𝗙𝗦 & 𝗣𝗥𝗢𝗣𝗦 (@LineStarApp)
6:39 PM • Apr 19, 2023
Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Joe Ryan MORE than 5.0 Pitcher Strikeouts
Anthony Rendon MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
🆕 Props AI 🆕
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.
Best of luck out there today, everyone!
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