Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 4/17 | Banking on Some Big Offense on the West Coast

Author

Ryan Humphries
April 17, 2023

Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend and is ready to hop back into a new week of MLB action! We were originally set up with a nine-game Monday main slate but a cold and windy forecast in Chicago led to the postponement of the Phillies/White Sox game. That still leaves us with plenty of baseball this evening with eight games on the docket. Since the PHI @ CWS game was originally going to lead off the main slate, DFS contests will lock at 7:10 ET but the first non-postponed game will have a first pitch time of 7:40 ET. So just be aware that there will be some extra time to adjust any possible remaining player(s) in your lineups if you need or want to. Alright, let’s get down to business. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

🚫PHI @ CWS (7:10 ET):🚫 POSTPONED due to cold and windy conditions. Make sure you don’t accidentally roster any players in this game.

ARI @ STL (7:45 ET): Winds blowing OUT to right around 10 mph.

CHC @ OAK (9:40 ET): Winds blowing OUT to center at 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.1k | @ HOU

By all means, the “safest” pitcher to spend up on for this slate appears to be Jacob deGrom (DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.6k) who will be taking on a sputtering Royals team. But no one needs me to tell them that deGrom is a strong DFS play and high ownership will inevitably reflect that tonight.

I’m sure few people will need to be told that Kevin Gausman is a strong DFS play as well, but I do believe that his ownership will be considerably lower than deGrom’s due to a slightly higher DFS price tag and his tougher match-up against the Astros. However, perhaps this match-up isn’t one to necessarily be swayed away from. Yes, it is still very early in the season but, much like their 7-9 record, the Astros have been a below-average offense. Against RHPs, Houston has ranked 17th with a 96 wRC+, 19th with a .311 wOBA, and 29th with a meager .105 ISO. They’ve also been striking out at a high clip with a 24.2% kRate (against righties), the 10th-highest in the MLB. Gausman has benefited from a couple of soft match-ups recently, but through his three 2023 starts and 20.0 IP, he’s returned a sharp 1.35 ERA, 2.62 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP, and 31.6% kRate. His slate-high 49.0% HardHit% allowed is a bit of a concern, but that is a figure I expect to regress to the mean (career 37.2% HardHit%), and it isn’t as if the Astros are accounting for many hard-hit baseballs to begin with. It’s a rather small 41 PA sample size, but in 41 PA versus the current Astros roster, Gausman has allowed a .205 AVG, .269 wOBA, and put up an impressive 36.6% kRate.

 

Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10k | @ SEA

Burnes had some rocky innings in spring training and that seemed to bleed over into his first couple of starts in the season where he surrendered nine earned runs over 9.1 IP and had a 6:5 K:BB ratio. However, in his most recent start against the D-Backs, he looked much more like the 2021 version of himself that won the NL Cy Young award. He was able to hold Arizona to three hits and no walks across eight shutout innings on just 89 pitches while striking out eight would-be batters; it was a performance that netted him 36.2 DKFP/58 FDFP. We should expect Burnes’ current 19.4% kRate to start climbing rapidly, assuming something “clicked” with his game last Tuesday. He’ll get to throw in a very pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park tonight and, despite having a few dangerous hitters sprinkled in their lineup, the Mariners have been very average against RHPs this season (100 wRC+ w/ a 23.3% kRate) and they’ve been marginally worse at home (91 wRC+ w/ a 25.4% kRate).

 

Jordan Lyles (RHP), KC | DK: $5.4k, FD: $7.4k | vs. TEX

It’s a dicey slate for value pitching and, on FanDuel, it’s probably best to avoid the bottom six or seven-priced arms. But Jordan Lyles may be worth a look as an SP2 candidate in DraftKings GPPs at a modest $5,400 salary. He’s a little feast or famine and, after not faring well against them six days ago (6.1 IP, 8 H, 2 BB, 4 ER, 4 K), Lyles will be taking on the same Rangers offense in back-to-back starts. Lyles is a guy who somewhat routinely pops off with a solidly-pitched game and he can eat up quite a few innings along the way. He should also carry the most strikeout upside among the bottom-of-the-barrel starters today. That’s not saying much given the company surrounding him in DFS pricing, but it wouldn’t be a major surprise for Lyles to put up a quality start tonight (6.0+ IP w/ 3 ER or fewer) with around a strikeout per inning. It’s far from a confident pick but Lyles likely comes in with <5% ownership and he checks off a few boxes here and there.

 

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Jacob deGrom (RHP), TEX | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.6k | @ KC

Jack Flaherty (RHP), STL | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.3k | vs. ARI

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks:

Colorado Rockies vs. Rich Hill (LHP), PIT

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

 

Non-Coors Stacks:

 Atlanta Braves vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), SD

+ Braves: 4.6 implied runs (T-most among non-Coors teams).

+ ATL vs. LHPs: .331 AVG (1st), .408 OBP (1st), .389 wOBA (2nd), 138 wRC+ (4th).

+ Weathers L20 Starts: 7.17 ERA, 5.98 FIP, and 1.67 WHIP.

+ Braves’ likely 1-4 hitters (Acuna, Olson, Riley, Murphy) have posted between a 146 and 186 wRC+ this season.

-/+ The Padres bullpen has been tough to score on recently, but they have pitched 16.0 innings over the last four days.

- Braves lineup is still missing a few key bats due to injury (M. Harris II, T. d’Arnaud, O. Arcia).

- Petco Park: #2 least hitter-friendly ballpark.

- Weathers: 132.9 feet average distance through two starts (10.0 IP) puts him in the 85th percentile of pitchers.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, Sean Murphy | Bargain Bat: Vaughn Grissom

 

 

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), SEA

+ MIL has been a top offense vs. RHPs this season: .275 AVG (4th), .351 wOBA (5th), and 115 wRC+ (7th).

+ Flexen: In 11.1 IP this season, Flexen has posted a slate-worst 8.74 ERA paired with a 6.21 xFIP, 2.03 WHIP, .419 opp wOBA, and 40.5% HardHit%.

+ Flexen is allowing a .482 wOBA and .321 ISO to RHBs in 33 PA.

+ SEA Bullpen’s 4.58 xFIP is the 10th highest in the MLB.

- T-Mobile Park: #5 least hitter-friendly ballpark.

- Brewers: 4.1 implied runs (ranks 12th on the slate).

- Brewers are averaging 4.10 runs/gm on the road (ranks 24th).

Favorite MIL Bats: Rowdy Tellez, Willy Adames, Garrett Mitchell | Bargain Bat: Mike Brosseau

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Oakland A’s vs. Hayden Wesneski (RHP), CHC

+ While nothing special, the A’s have not been dreadful against RHPs, posting a 95 wRC+ this season.

+ Wesneski has only made it through six innings in his two starts, putting up a 7.50 ERA, 6.57 xFIP, 2.83 WHIP, and 11.4% kRate.

+ The A’s make for an extremely affordable stack no matter who you pick -- the most expensive A’s hitter is $4,000 on DraftKings (R. Laureano) and $3,000 on FanDuel (B. Rooker).

- Oakland Coliseum: #6 least hitter-friendly ballpark.

- A’s: 3.7 implied runs (3rd lowest on the slate).

- Cubs bullpen has an MLB-low 3.23 xFIP this season paired with an MLB-high 30.6% kRate.

Favorite OAK Bats: Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, Esteury Ruiz | Bargain Bat: Ryan Noda

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Bryan Reynolds, PIT | DK: $6k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

2B/OF Mookie Betts, LAD | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.7k | vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

3B Austin Riley, ATL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), SD

1B CJ Cron, COL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Rich Hill (LHP), PIT

SS Willy Adames, MIL | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), SEA

1B Nathaniel Lowe, TEX | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), KC

2B Nolan Gorman, STL | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

The default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

2B Nico Hoerner, CHC | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Kyle Muller (LHP), OAK

3B/OF Patrick Wisdom, CHC | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Kyle Muller (LHP), OAK

3B Ke’Bryan Hayes, PIT | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.9k| vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

1B Rowdy Tellez, MIL | DK: $3.5k, FD: | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), SEA

2B/SS Rodolfo Castro, PIT | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP), STL

C Shea Langeliers, OAK | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Hayden Wesneski (RHP), CHC

OF Travis Jankowski, TEX | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), KC

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $2.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Hayden Wesneski (RHP), CHC

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

My HR pick came in a little late for the tweet today but I’ll be going with…

1B Rowdy Tellez, MIL | DK: $3.5k, FD: | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), SEA

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Nathaniel Lowe MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Esteury Ruiz MORE than 0.5 Total Bases

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!

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