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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A loaded baseball Tuesday hits the board and we’ll have a ten-game main slate to dig into! There is a decent chance that this slate will get trimmed down to nine games with poor weather forecasted in the KC @ CWS match-up. Other than that, things are looking good today and we’ll have a nice selection of pitchers and worthy hitters/stacks to choose from. Let’s get it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• KC @ CWS (7:40 ET): As noted in the intro, this is the lone trouble spot today. A batch of scattered storms looks to move in right around the scheduled first pitch. If it was just light/moderate rain they had to worry about, they could maybe attempt to play this one, but there is the risk that the storms will be on the severe side and may include some lightning. This seems likely to be a postponement but if no early PPD is announced, tread very carefully with rostering players from this game. For what it’s worth, winds will be blowing IN from center/left around 20 mph as well.

• CHC @ ARI (9:40 ET): The roof at Chase Field will be open tonight. Temps in Phoenix will be in the low-80s around game time, making this one of the better hitting environments on the evening.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.2k | vs. CIN

Gilbert has gotten off to an all-around solid start this season. He has procured at least seven strikeouts in all three of his starts and has pitched at least seven full innings twice. Overall, he’ll head into tonight’s contest with a 2.66 ERA, 3.09 xFIP, 0.84 WHIP, and 29.9% kRate. The slider has been Gilbert’s most-used pitch this season and he’s getting a 41.3% Whiff% and .150 opp AVG on that pitch. To go along with the slider, the four-seamer and split-finger have been his other two primary putaway pitches and he’s getting an incredible 68.8% Whiff% on the split-finger. The Reds have shown some great power against RHPs (.196 ISO, ranks 3rd) but they’ve been average overall (98 wRC+, ranks 16th) while rocking the 5th highest kRate (27.0%). Against Gilbert’s three aforementioned go-to putaway pitches, the Reds rank 22nd in xwOBA and are striking out at a 31.8% clip. T-Mobile Park currently ranks as the #2 most pitcher-friendly ballpark this season and you may notice that this game easily has the lowest total on the board with just a 6.5 over/under. If he can limit the extra-base hits that the Reds have been able to put up this season, Gilbert should cruise to another strong outing with a good chance of racking up 8-to-10 Ks along the way.

Jared Jones (RHP), PIT | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.7k | @ NYM

Jones has been excellent to begin his MLB career and is showing why he’s the Pirates’ #3 prospect and the #57 overall prospect in baseball (via MLB.com). He heads into his fourth MLB start with a slate-leading 2.37 xFIP, 34.7% kRate, 18.9% SwStr%, and a 2.8% Walk Rate. Jones has four pitches in his arsenal but he has thrown either the four-seamer (45.7%) or slider (41.7%) on over 85% of his total pitches. While the Mets have been heating up at the plate (142 wRC+ L7Days) and have been very difficult to strike out (14.9% kRate L7Days), they have not fared well on the season against RHP four-seamers and slider -- versus those pitches, the Mets rank 24th with a .297 xwOBA paired with a 23.6% kRate and a .073 ISO, which ranks dead last. The one major knock on Jared Jones thus far is the amount of power he’s been giving up, including a 54.6% HardHit% and a 15.9% Barrel%. He has surrendered a pair of home runs in each of his previous two starts. However, if the Mets continue to have issues generating big hits on four-seamers and sliders, then Jones should get by just fine in tonight’s game. He’ll have some risk attached to him but it doesn’t hurt that he’ll get to take the mound at a very pitcher-friendly Citi Field tonight (#4 most pitcher-friendly ballpark).

Lance Lynn (RHP), STL | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.4k | @ OAK

There are a couple of cheap pitchers on this slate that could end up working out but we’ll stay in the mid-range for our final pitcher spotlight. Lance Lynn has been serviceable thus far, maintaining a 2.63 ERA and a rock-solid 29.5% kRate. He’s allowing more hard contact and barreled balls than I’d like to see, but the strikeout upside alone is worth taking some shots on his $8,400 price tag on both sites. As we’re all aware, the A’s are firmly toward the bottom of MLB offensive rankings. Against RHPs, they’re hitting just .206 with a .605 OPS and 81 wRC+ (ranks 26th). Most notable, when it comes to Lance Lynn’s DFS viability tonight, the A’s own a 28.4% kRate vs. RHPs, which is the second-highest in baseball. Lynn has been allowing a very high 57.1% FlyBall Rate, but if there’s one ballpark where that may end up being a positive, it’d be at Oakland Coliseum which has, by far, the most foul territory of any MLB park. Lynn has held his own against two tough opponents this season (Dodgers and Phillies) so we should expect him to handle the lowly Oakland A’s with relative ease.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN | DK: $9k, FD: $9.9k | @ SEA

Reynaldo Lopez (RHP), ATL | DK: $8k, FD: $8k | @ HOU

Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.2k | vs. NYY

Jose Quintana (LHP), NYM | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.8k | vs. PIT

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

Atlanta Braves vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

These are two of the more obvious stacks on this slate so I didn’t want to dive too deep into either one but still wanted to throw them out there. Two top-tier offenses facing two struggling starters is often a recipe for success but anything can happen in baseball. Core hitters from both ATL and LAD will eat up a huge chunk of salary but we should see some big scores from some of those guys tonight.

San Diego Padres vs. Wade Miley (LHP), MIL

+ Padres: 4.6 implied runs (ranks T-6th on the slate).

+ Padres vs. LHPs: .815 OPS (2nd), .359 wOBA (3rd), .230 ISO (1st), and 126 wRC+ (5th).

+ The Padres are only hitting .230 against LHPs this season but they’ve shown plenty of power against lefties and Wade Miley is a contact pitcher.

+ In 87 PA against Miley, the current Padres roster has a .278 AVG, .381 wOBA, and 11.5% kRate.

+ American Family Field has ranked as the #5 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

- After starting the season on the IL, Miley likely won’t pitch deep into this game, leaving extra innings for a Brewers bullpen that has been solid: 3.77 ERA, 3.58 xFIP, and 1.11 WHIP.

Favorite SD Bats: Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-Seong Kim

Bargain Bat: Jackson Merrill

Boston Red Sox (LHBs Preferred) vs. Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE

+ 7-of-9 hitters in the Red Sox lineup are LHBs; Bibee vs. LHBs: .333 AVG, .464 wOBA, .303 ISO, 7.88 ERA, 5.88 xFIP, and 2.13 WHIP.

+ Bibee has allowed seven barrelled balls this season (bottom 5th percentile).

+ Fenway Park has been the #10 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

+ Every Red Sox hitter has a < 10% pOwn%.

- The Red Sox have not been great versus RHPs: .226 AVG (22nd), .659 OPS (23rd), .294 wOBA (24th), and 84 wRC+ (24th).

- The Guardians bullpen has been lights out: 1.76 ERA, 3.56 xFIP, 1.04 WHIP, .179 opp AVG, and 27.6% kRate.

Favorite BOS Bats: Triston Casas, Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran

Bargain Bat: Wilyer Abreu

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), SD

+ Every Brewers hitter has a < 10% pOwn%.

+ The Brewers have been one of the best offenses vs. RHPs: .302 AVG (2nd), .863 OPS (2nd), .380 wOBA (2nd), .189 ISO (4th), and 136 wRC+ (2nd).

+ Cease has been good through his three starts with the Padres (2.16 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 30.3% kRate) but, based on his 3.96 xFIP, he’s been getting a bit lucky.

+ Cease is allowing a high 60.0% FlyBall Rate and has been getting hit hard -- 92.2 mph average exit velo (bottom 5th percentile).

+ Padres bullpen: 4.63 xFIP (ranks 24th).

- Small sample size but, in 28 PA versus the current Brewers lineup, Cease has allowed just a .074 AVG, .088 wOBA, and 42.9% kRate.

- Cease has allowed just two hits to RHBs this season (.033 AVG).

- Brewers: 3.9 implied runs (5th lowest on the slate).

Favorite MIL Bats: William Contreras, Sal Frelick, Willy Adames

Bargain Bat: Blake Perkins

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

2B/SS Mookie Betts, LAD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

3B Austin Riley, ATL | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

OF Spencer Steer, CIN | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

2B Ketel Marte, ARI | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

OF Bryan Reynolds, PIT | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), NYM

2B Jose Altuve, HOU | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4k | vs. Reynaldo Lopez (RHP), ATL

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE

3B/SS Manny Machado, SD | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Wade Miley (LHP), MIL

1B Josh Naylor, CLE | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Garrett Whitliock (RHP), BOS

OF Cody Bellinger, CHC | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Tommy Henry (LHP), ARI

C William Contreras, MIL | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), SD

SS Anthony Volpe, NYY | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

C Willson Contreras, STL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

1B Justin Turner, TOR | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

SS Ha-Seong Kim, SD | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Wade Miley (LHP), MIL

OF Joc Pederson, ARI | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

SS Orlando Arcia, ATL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

1B Michael Busch, CHC | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Tommy Henry (LHP), ARI

OF Edward Olivares, PIT | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), NYM

OF Sal Frelick, MIL | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), SD

OF Jackson Merrill, SD | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Wade Miley (LHP), MIL

OF Wilyer Abreu, BOS | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE

3B Abraham Toro, OAK | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), STL

OF Harrison Bader, NYM | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Jared Jones (RHP), PIT

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Jose Altuve MORE than 7.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

Marcell Ozuna MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!