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Top DFS Offers 4/15/23 💸

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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We will have plenty of baseball action to dive into this evening with a nine-game main slate waiting in the wings! This looks to be a well-rounded slate with some quality pitching options and many hitters/stacks in advantageous spots. Weather will also have a minimal impact on this slate and there will be no significant postponement concerns. Most teams have around 15 games under their belt in the new season which means most routine starting hitters have received around 70 plate appearances and most starting pitchers are heading into their fourth start. We’re still working with some smaller sample sizes on the scale of a full MLB season but, for my fellow baseball data nerds, the information we have at our disposal for the 2024 season continues to become more and more reliable as each day passes. Let’s try to solve the Monday MLB puzzle and turn some profits! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• PIT @ NYM (7:10 ET): There is potential for a broken line of storms traversing its way over the ballpark but it seems like the worst-case scenario would be a late start. Once they get going, if a delay is even needed in the first place, there should be no further issues. Winds blowing left-to-right around 10-15 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Sonny Gray (RHP), STL | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.7k | @ OAK

If you’re going all out for a top arm, ace RHP Tyler Glasnow (DK: $11k, FD: $11k) should make for a strong spend-up as he takes on the Nationals in a home game where the Dodgers are monster -370 ML favorites. We’ll drop down a bit to spotlight Sonny Gray to lead off this pitching section. To get the one knock out of the way, Gray will likely face some sort of pitch count restriction as he continues to stretch out his arm after beginning the season on the 15-day IL (hamstring). Gray was limited to 64 pitches in his 2024 debut, but he was efficient and kept a dangerous Phillies lineup in check across five scoreless innings. He’ll now go up against an A’s team that loves to strike out. Oakland’s 28.1% kRate vs. RHPs is the second-highest in baseball, their .210 AVG against righties is the third-lowest, and their 85 wRC+ ranks them 24th. I haven’t seen any official word, but if Gray’s leash is extended to around 80 pitches tonight and he continues to be economical on the mound, then he could reasonably clear six innings against this offensively-challenged A’s lineup while posting a solid strikeout count (Update: Gray will reportedly be limited to 75 pitches tonight). The Cardinals step in as heavy -190 ML road favorites while the A’s are being pinned with a lowly 3.3 implied run total. Oakland has mustered just 2.50 runs/gm in ten home games this season and Gray is not an easy pitcher to put up a big inning against.

Seth Lugo (RHP), KC | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.6k | @ CWS

There is not much excitement with this pick as Seth Lugo has been much more of an innings eater than a high strikeout machine early on this season. He has posted just an 11.8% kRate through three starts this season, however, he owns an above-average 24.1% kRate for his career so it would not be a major surprise if his 2024 kRate begins to see some positive regression soon. What Lugo can brag about is the fact that he has worked through at least six innings in each start this season and he’s inducing a high 49.2% GroundBall% while allowing a low 2.6% Barrel%. The real draw for him today will be his match-up with the hapless White Sox offense. The White Sox are playing without three of their best hitters (L. Robert Jr., E. Jimenez, and Y. Moncada), and they’ve easily averaged the fewest runs per game (2.27) in the MLB. I wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to look elsewhere for some higher strikeout upside, but Lugo is a strong bet to post a fourth consecutive quality start and come away with around a 20 DKFP/40 FDFP result.

Luis Gil (RHP), NYY | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.4k | @ TOR

Gil was electric in the Spring, putting up 23 Ks in 15.2 innings of work while maintaining a 0.83 WHIP and .127 opp AVG. He has since gotten off to a nice start to his official 2024 campaign and has posted a slate-best 36.8% kRate. He did not clear five complete innings in either of his two starts this season, walks have been an issue (18.4% BB%), and his 10.1% SwStr% suggests that his high kRate is due for some significant regression. But he’s interesting from an upside perspective if he manages to maintain a 30+% kRate and he won’t break the bank at his current salaries. The Blue Jays are not an overly strikeout-prone team (21.7% kRate vs. RHPs) but there are plenty of Ks to be had at the back half of their order. Looking at the Toronto lineup, there are four hitters (Biggio, Varsho, Kiner-Falefa, and Kiermaier) who own at least a 25% kRate vs. RHPs this season. Gil just faced this Toronto team in his last start and produced eight Ks while hitting a 95-pitch count. If he can cut down on those pesky walks, Gil has some nice potential against this very average Blue Jays offense (96 wRC+ vs. RHPs, ranks 16th & .302 wOBA vs. RHPs, ranks 23rd).

Other Pitchers to Consider

Tyler Glasnow (RHP), LAD | DK: $11k, FD: $11k | vs. WAS

Frankie Montas (RHP), CIN | DK: $9k, FD: $9k | @ SEA

George Kirby (RHP), SEA | DK: $8.9k, FD: $8.6k | vs. CIN

Martin Perez (LHP), PIT | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8k | @ NYM

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Atlanta Braves vs. Spencer Arrighetti (RHP), HOU

+ Braves: 5.5 implied run total (ranks T-1st on the slate).

+ Arrighetti will make just his second career MLB start -- he got rocked in his debut last Wednesday versus the Royals: 3.0 IP, 7 H, 3 BB, 7 ER, 3 K.

+ Braves vs. RHPs: .323 AVG (1st), .916 OPS (1st), .400 wOBA (1st), .212 ISO (1st), 146 wRC+ (1st), and 20.4% kRate (8th lowest).

+ The Astros bullpen has not been great this season: 5.32 ERA, 4.63 xFIP, 1.39 WHIP, and 65.4% Left on Base %.

- Arrighetti does have some pedigree and is the Astros' top pitching prospect. He owns a mid-90s fastball and a deceiving sweeper pitch. Nerves may have been the main detriment to his MLB debut last week.

- Most of the top Astros relievers will be available today after Houston was able to save most of their top bullpen arms in yesterday’s game.

- As usual, the core Braves bats are very expensive and could be fairly chalky.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna

Bargain Bat: Jarred Kelenic

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Ben Brown (RHP), CHC

+ D-Backs: 4.9 implied runs (ranks 4th on the slate).

+ Ben Brown has some nice strikeout stuff but the D-Backs have been the 4th hardest team to strike out versus RHPs (19.2% kRate).

+ Brown has been giving up a ton of very hard-hit balls with a whopping 77.8% HardHit% and 96.3 mph average exit velo (bottom 5th percentile).

+ The D-Backs have been noticeably better at home where they’ve averaged 6.10 runs/gm (vs. 4.67 runs/gm on the road).

+ This could be a low-owned stack with every D-Backs hitter having a < 6% pOwn%.

-/+ The Cubs have had a good-not-great bullpen: 4.50 ERA, 4.26 xFIP, 1.36 WHIP, .218 opp AVG, 26.3% kRate, and 0.98 HR/9 Rate.

- The D-Backs have been very average against RHPs: .230 AVG (22nd), .315 wOBA (16th), .144 ISO (18th), .698 OPS (17th), and 94 wRC+ (19th).

Favorite ARI Bats: Ketel Marte, Christian Walker, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Bargain Bat: Jake McCarthy

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), NYM

+ 7-of-9 hitters in the projected Pirates’ lineup have a < 6% pOwn%.

+ Houser is not missing many bats with just an 8.9% kRate through two starts and he owns an ugly 6.14 xFIP and 1.60 WHIP.

+ The Pirates have been an above-average offense versus RHPs: .268 AVG (5th), .746 OPS (12th), .332 wOBA (11th), and 102 wRC+ (13th).

+ The Pirates have been the #5 road offense, averaging 6.09 runs/gm (vs. 4.00 runs/gm at home).

+ Most PIT bats are going to be very affordable.

- The Mets have had a top-10 bullpen: 3.34 ERA, 3.91 xFIP, 1.23 WHIP, 27.7% kRate, and 0.58 HR/9 Rate.

- Citi Field has ranked as the #4 least hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

- The Pirates have not shown much power versus RHPs (.134 ISO, ranks 24th).

Favorite PIT Bats: Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes

Bargain Bat: Rowdy Tellez

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4k | vs. Nick Nastrini (RHP), CWS

OF Juan Soto, NYY | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Mitchell Parker (LHP), WAS

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Joe Ross (RHP), MIL

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.1k | vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

2B Ketel Marte, ARI | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Ben Brown (RHP), CHC

2B Jose Altuve, HOU | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Darius Vines (RHP), ATL

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Spencer Arrighetti (RHP), HOU

SS Oneil Cruz, PIT | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), NYM

C William Contreras, MIL | DK: $5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Joe Musgrove (RHP), SD

SS Bo Bichette, TOR | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Luis Gil (RHP), NYY

OF Seiya Suzuki, CHC | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

OF Brandon Nimmo, NYM | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), PIT

2B Nolan Gorman, STL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Ross Stripling (RHP), OAK

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF MJ Melendez, KC | DK: $4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Nick Nastrini (RHP), CWS

OF Nelson Velazquez, KC | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Nick Nastrini (RHP), CWS

OF Starling Marte, NYM | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), PIT

OF Sal Frelick, MIL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Joe Musgrove (RHP), SD

1B Michael Busch, CHC | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

OF Jackson Merrill, SD | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Joe Ross (RHP), MIL

2B Nick Loftin, KC | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Nick Nastrini (RHP), CWS

1B Rowdy Tellez, PIT | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), NYM

OF Blake Perkins, MIL | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Joe Musgrove (RHP), SD

OF Jurickson Profar, SD | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Joe Ross (RHP), MIL

C Ivan Herrera, STL | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Ross Stripling (RHP), OAK

3B Abraham Toro, OAK | DK: $3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), STL

OF Harrison Bader, NYM | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), PIT

SS Masyn Winn, STL | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Ross Stripling (RHP), OAK

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

William Contreras MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Christian Walker MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!